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January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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I like the RGEM...I used to preach it back in the day on eastern with the NAM/RGEM rule. When they agreed, it was solid.

RGEM does have an over-amped bias though in that 48h range...however, this winter, its been pretty solid. The over-amped bias probably is more apparent in blockier patterns.

It has had a decent winter.
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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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You and I both have a place for RGEM in our hearts, that run raised the flag. Getting very close to model consensus time. Noon tomorrow will be go time.

Will made a great point earlier today about the euro being in the ballpark sans qpf. Long as it continues that theme we are in great shape. Screaming OE signal to me with this one

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cja1987

cja1987

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Time frame? Is this like late Tuesday into Wednesday or mid day Tuesday into early Wednesday?

 

For all the questions and posts here, do you ever look at models or read the disussions? Not trying to be a jerk, just curious.

 

Late Tuesday into Wed afternoon taking the GFS verbatim.

 

Anxious to see if the ECMWF jumps on board in a big way. Not throwing up the victory flags yet but its been kind of comical to watch the meltdowns of late. We are in a pattern of high potential, its easy to get jaded when all you see is cold and dry on the models but arctic air with multiple u/l waves coming through has been consistently advertised for a while. Anybody who is not happy with that type of pattern for SNE in late Jan does not respect climo.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

For all the questions and posts here, do you ever look at models or read the disussions? Not trying to be a jerk, just curious.

Late Tuesday into Wed afternoon taking the GFS verbatim.

Anxious to see if the ECMWF jumps on board in a big way. Not throwing up the victory flags yet but its been kind of comical to watch the meltdowns of late. We are in a pattern of high potential, its easy to get jaded when all you see is cold and dry on the models but arctic air with multiple u/l waves coming through has been consistently advertised for a while. Anybody who is not happy with that type of pattern for SNE in late Jan does not respect climo.

could not have said it better. There is a reason the term QPF queens was invented.
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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For all the questions and posts here, do you ever look at models or read the disussions? Not trying to be a jerk, just curious.

 

Late Tuesday into Wed afternoon taking the GFS verbatim.

 

Anxious to see if the ECMWF jumps on board in a big way. Not throwing up the victory flags yet but its been kind of comical to watch the meltdowns of late. We are in a pattern of high potential, its easy to get jaded when all you see is cold and dry on the models but arctic air with multiple u/l waves coming through has been consistently advertised for a while. Anybody who is not happy with that type of pattern for SNE in late Jan does not respect climo.

 

 

I think the lack of actual verbatim model solutions showing big hits were starting to wear on some and then the localized nature of yesterday's mini-paste bomb puts it over the edge if you miss out.

 

 

But yeah, I don't see a reason to poo-poo this pattern even if this storm isn't that good. There's going to be several more chances I think before the month is out.

 

 

That said, lets keep bringing this one back from the dead. It looks pretty darn good on the 00z suite. Thats a nice look in the mid-levels...screams fronto band and excellent dendritic growth for a chunk of the area.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I think the lack of actual verbatim model solutions showing big hits were starting to wear on some and then the localized nature of yesterday's mini-paste bomb puts it over the edge if you miss out.

 

 

But yeah, I don't see a reason to poo-poo this pattern even if this storm isn't that good. There's going to be several more chances I think before the month is out.

 

 

That said, lets keep bringing this one back from the dead. It looks pretty darn good on the 00z suite. Thats a nice look in the mid-levels...screams fronto band and excellent dendritic growth for a chunk of the area.

 

I'm hoping we pull some threats out to show all these people who continue to poo-poo everything, that we know what we are trying to sell them. We aren't just being weenies.

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