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January 21-22 maybe January 24th potential very cold snow event. It's gonna snow dammit!

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/20/2014 at 3:51 PM, CT Rain said:

No doubt a strong frontogenesis signature. The issue is just how far northwest the best lift will get. We're right on the fence.

 

Once you get deeper in the fronto circulation there's going to be a really sweet band of high ratio ripping... guessing UUU to BOS?

 

 

Yeah I-95 is looking pretty good for the banding sweet spot right now...somewhere in there. Probably gets in on SE CT too and the coastal areas over to like HVN.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 1/20/2014 at 3:51 PM, CT Rain said:

No doubt a strong frontogenesis signature. The issue is just how far northwest the best lift will get. We're right on the fence.

 

Once you get deeper in the fronto circulation there's going to be a really sweet band of high ratio ripping... guessing UUU to BOS?

Maybe ORH to HPN?

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
  On 1/20/2014 at 3:51 PM, CT Rain said:

No doubt a strong frontogenesis signature. The issue is just how far northwest the best lift will get. We're right on the fence.

 

Once you get deeper in the fronto circulation there's going to be a really sweet band of high ratio ripping... guessing UUU to BOS?

I was thinking Westerly/whatever in CT touches Westerly, up through Scituate or so...

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
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  On 1/20/2014 at 4:00 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Not in this one they aren't.

You know what I mean, right?  In these coastal storms sometimes 1-95 is getting pounded but then there is this deform band that sits way nw and rots.  Will there be some kind of deform band well inland in this storm or is the setup wrong/too progressive?

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
  On 1/20/2014 at 4:01 PM, SnowMan said:

GFS show .25 to .5 QPF back your way and my way.  With good ratios we will be fine...

in this situation, 4 inches is a win for you and 2+ for me.  But this might not be done trending.  explosive deepening can mean more westerly track.  I think it might tick more west this pm but then go a bit se tomorrow morn.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/20/2014 at 4:07 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

Sref probs have 30- 50% of 12+ over a large area from Philly right up thru the heart of SNE

 

 

Problem with them is they have an over-amped bias. Those ARW members especially...unrealistic usually.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
  On 1/20/2014 at 4:06 PM, mahk_webstah said:

You know what I mean, right?  In these coastal storms sometimes 1-95 is getting pounded but then there is this deform band that sits way nw and rots.  Will there be some kind of deform band well inland in this storm or is the setup wrong/too progressive?

The dynamics are just too far SE for us right now.

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SnowMan

SnowMan

Posted
Posted
  On 1/20/2014 at 4:07 PM, mahk_webstah said:

in this situation, 4 inches is a win for you and 2+ for me.  But this might not be done trending.  explosive deepening can mean more westerly track.  I think it might tick more west this pm but then go a bit se tomorrow morn.

Who knows - maybe we get a good deformation band...but trends look good so far. 

 

As far as I am concerned I would be fine with 4 inches although I would take more if it was given.  It is just good to add to the pack...

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