Poimen Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 Go back to your 1st post.... click edit... then click full edit. Ah...full edit. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I see it.... now. Very small though. Maybe 25-50 miles at the max. I just looked at the NAM for 12z to 18z comparison and the trough is deeper. while the location of the low at 500mb is important, the confluence of the trough at 18z is also what caused the low to also deepen. but the trough is deff much deeper in the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 18z GFS ens mean has >1/10" for the northern ~half of NC, 12z mean kept 1/10 amounts confined to the boarder counties. Wide swath of >1/4" for central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 From Brad P.'s twitter feed we get this image of the differences between the different deterministic weather model outputs for the storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 IMO the futurecast version will be the one that pans out with the NW Flow snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Edit: Hi res Nam says powerstroke has to go plow Big frosty driveway, 4 inches from Tobbacoville up through all of Surry county. It can"t come too soon. Things are getting really bad for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So they all leave SC dry? Yeah , I love clippers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Here are the probabilities of greater than 1 inch of snow early Wednesday morning from the WPC. A good portion of the state of NC (probably about 1/2) is in the 30-40% range. This matches up well with WeatherNC's post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Here's your greater than 2 inch probability map. You can see that being in the immediate lee of the Apps is, once again, not a good thing. Your chances for more snow increase the further north and east of the Apps you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 A 30-50 mile shift south would have major impacts on the Raleigh and Charlotte Metro areas. Definitely in the realm of possibility. Usually we see a north trend 24-36 hours before an event. This may be a little different setup though with the models picking up on the strength of the shortwave energy. Also we typically see the models trend a little wetter. However this may not happen due to the fact that this is not a gulf system. At this point 1-2 inches and cold to follow maybe the best shot we get this winter (I know we still have February and March). It's just so hard to get precip over the mountains in this setup. We need a slower flow and the trough a little more West. It's frustrating to have a ridge in the west and a trough and cold in the East with so little to show for it. Keeping my fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Another nickel dime 1" to 4" upslope event is likely. Hope it does not dry up like last night's upslope did. Best of winter in the process of wrapping up over the next 2 weeks. Was so hopeful for several solid snows for this winter in early December. Never did seem to be forthcoming with the pattern this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So they all leave SC dry? Yeah , I love clippers Clippers never work here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The battle line is drawn for Tuesday. We are rooting for the euro/ Nam keeping the vort futher south than the 18z GFS who needlessly to say the MA is probably going gaga over. WeatherNC is right the jackpot is always about 100-150 miles north of where the vort passes. However most of us even though we would love to be in the sweet spot will gladly take a 1-2 incher. So 50-75 mile shift eitheir direction N/S on Tuesday is gonna be huge. It's on to the 0z. Right now I love the trends and the fact we have the euro, sref and 18z nam going in our favor v/s the 18z GFS. Edit: Hi res Nam says powerstroke has to go plow Big frosty driveway, 4 inches from Tobbacoville up through all of Surry county. I wish, sorry to say but Robert says it will skip or downslope all of Surry county then redevelop east of me! That's surprising!!! lol, this was as of 6:30 this evening!!! So me no looky for nothing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I wish, sorry to say but Robert says it will skip or downslope all of Surry county then redevelop east of me! That's surprising!!! lol, this was as of 6:30 this evening!!! So me no looky for nothing.... Robert is a very knowledgeable and experienced forecaster no doubt, but the past few years his track record has been sketchy at best. Looking to one meteorologist for all the answers may not be good practice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Robert is a very knowledgeable and experienced forecaster no doubt, but the past few years his track record has been sketchy at best. Looking to one meteorologist for all the answers may not be good practice.. If you bet on a clipper being dry east of the mtns,.....90% of the time, you will be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm really curious to see what the models do at 0z. Since early this morning the models have trended wetter. Which would make sense because yesterday and early this morning it was over the Arctic ocean and probably not been sampled properly. Since then its come ashore over Alaska, Yukon and the NW Territories. But this is the S/W in question atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 If you bet on a clipper being dry east of the mtns,.....90% of the time, you will be right. This is not your typical clipper, the trajectory is further South than most if the trend is correct, if the vortmax goes over the NC/SC border which the SREF and 18ZGFS ensembles suggests then the downsloping component that is evident with most clippers shouldn't be as prominent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm really curious to see what the models do at 0z. Since early this morning the models have trended wetter. Which would make sense because yesterday and early this morning it was over the Arctic ocean and probably not been sampled properly. Since then its come ashore over Alaska, Yukon and the NW Territories. But this is the S/W in question atm. Is that moisture down by mexico have anything to do with our sytem... or is it maybe a sign the southern jet is about to get active.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 To answer your question Tim. The moisture west of Mexico is high level moisture and has nothing to do with the clipper dropping out of NW Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 If you bet on a clipper being dry east of the mtns,.....90% of the time, you will be right. you are correct sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Robert is a very knowledgeable and experienced forecaster no doubt, but the past few years his track record has been sketchy at best. Looking to one meteorologist for all the answers may not be good practice.. I don't just look at one forecaster, I look at all of them . But Robert seems to do better in my area with these small events, That's why I'm not looking for much if anything, (as of now) Robert could change his forecast tonight or tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Another nickel dime 1" to 4" upslope event is likely. Hope it does not dry up like last night's upslope did. Best of winter in the process of wrapping up over the next 2 weeks. Was so hopeful for several solid snows for this winter in early December. Never did seem to be forthcoming with the pattern this year. Yeah, that's spoken with a little bit too much finality for my taste. I just don't think you can say that with any large degree of confidence. We don't know what's going to happen on Tuesday evening yet. How can we know that winter's over? Robert is a very knowledgeable and experienced forecaster no doubt, but the past few years his track record has been sketchy at best. Looking to one meteorologist for all the answers may not be good practice.. That's a pretty strong statement, and one that I would have to disagree with. I hope that he's wrong about this coming Tuesday night's event, but I'm much more confident in his great knowledge and expertise for this area than I am in my ability to properly interpret a map or two here and there. Plus, he may change his forecast as time progresses, as all good meteorologists should do as they gain more and more information leading up to the event. But, for right now, I'm sure he's got excellent reasons for why the lee of the Apps should once again be the location for a precipitation minimum with this upcoming event. As Brad P mentioned in that recent blog post, you should forecast what is most probable to occur, not what is on the fringe of possibilities. The most probable event is that the lee of the Apps is skipped by any meaningful precipitation anytime there is a clipper-like storm headed this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Has anyone looked at the individual 18z gfs ensemble mean or individual members? If the mean is trending wetter and ticking further south, that would be a good sign and match up with the latest nam and sref runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Has anyone looked at the individual 18z gfs ensemble mean or individual members? If the mean is trending wetter and ticking further south, that would be a good sign and match up with the latest nam and sref runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Thanks nc weather. 21z SREF is in and gives the northern 1/3 of nc .25 qpf. Looks like something legitimate to track. Let's reel one in!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Just looked at wxsouth facebook.He's showing high resolution NAM model. He says usually they are over done .Even given that they look good from west across state. I know the clipper that came through last wednesday night the NAM did a better job on that event . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 00z NAM is rolling in. It looks fairly similar to 18z so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 And it keeps the vort further north and less sharp. Back to the older solution. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Vortmax near Asheville at 42hrs this run, 18z had it in NE TN, more consolidated too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 And it keeps the vort further north and less sharp. Back to the older solution. Oh well. By not much... maybe a slightly tad west. Vortmax near Asheville at 42hrs this run, 18z had it in NE TN, more consolidated too. Yup. Which really thats better than it shearing out. Trough is deeper than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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