CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 If that system shifts just a little farther south, all bets are off. It will be wetter. If the GFS gets on-board in an hour or so, we will know that this one is real. Right now, I am a little skeptical due to all the times the models have backed off on an event within a day of verification time. Right now, this is the best looking thing we have seen all winter. Let's reel this one in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 If that system shifts just a little farther south, all bets are off. It will be wetter. If the GFS gets on-board in an hour or so, we will know that this one is real. Right now, I am a little skeptical due to all the times the models have backed off on an event within a day of verification time. Right now, this is the best looking thing we have seen all winter. Let's reel this one in.I'd really wait to see what the 00z models show, Euro especially. This could just be an 18z hiccup, which is not uncommon (for any of the model time slots, not just 18z). I want a real trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 It could just be Happy Hour, but that's a huge change by the NAM and the SREF and Canadian appear similar. The Euro isn't bad, either. If this thing looks similar at 00z, I'm going to get excited. We do want to see a trend southward, but verbatim, it would still be okay as modeled here in north-central NC. It's probably going to be a lighter event (though if the NAM is correct on QPF and it shifts south, maybe not), but I'm desperate to see accumulating snowfall at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 GFS through 36 looks like this will be a weenie run, digging the vort much further SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 GFS much better, just not for us, MA gets a nice event. Oh well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Trends......The trend is our friend folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 IF this comes to fruition and this is remotely possible then Western Central NC is going to be the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 GFS much better, just not for us, MA gets a nice event. Oh well... It looks like it still brings some light precipitation across much of NC after hr 48. It's not much, but it showed absolutely nothing on prior runs. EDIT: OH MY GOD at the 18z Hi-Res NAM. Weenie moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 It looks like it still brings some light precipitation across much of NC after hr 48. It's not much, but it showed absolutely nothing on prior runs. EDIT: OH MY GOD at the 18z Hi-Res NAM. Weenie moment. Come on James. You can't drop that and not elaborate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Come on James. You can't drop that and not elaborate! Look at ncweather's post. It doesn't look like it translates east very well, but it would be sick along the I-85 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Gfs has flurries/snow showers. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Look at ncweather's post. It doesn't look like it translates east very well, but it would be sick along the I-85 corridor. Gotcha. I didn't put 2 and 2 together. And no access to a computer till later. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Come on James. You can't drop that and not elaborate! lol. Just shift everything north about 100-125 miles from the nam with most of nc in the .01-.10" range. Love, GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 lol. Just shift everything north about 100-125 miles from the nam with most of nc in the .01-.10" range. Love, GFS Well, I'll take an inch and be happy. But James was like, "best model run ever out of any model ever. Alright, I'm out. See ya!" Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 lol. Just shift everything north about 100-125 miles from the nam with most of nc in the .01-.10" range. Love, GFS But the 18z GFS is further south and wetter than the 12z. The models rarely just jump because of the way they manage initial atmospheric conditions and the nature of the problem itself. The trend is, however, positive, even on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 GFS much better, just not for us, MA gets a nice event. Oh well... Yeah, GFS is still not there. Right now it looks like a typical clipper. However, it is not far from something good. It just has to dig a little deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Poimen should update the header on this thread to VA special. Not as optimistic as I was 24hrs ago, while the models have trended towards more moisture being involved, the track of the H5 vort passes through NC. You want the vort passing to your south by 100-200 miles, not overhead. SLP does not get going to off the VA Capes, rather than east of HAT or better ILM, again, casualty of the vort trekking through NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Does anyone know how Fayetteville is looking....I look but don't know how to interpret these maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Does anyone know how Fayetteville is looking....I look but don't know how to interpret these maps...Did you miss the snow in Fayetteville yesterday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Poimen should update the header on this thread to VA special. Not as optimistic as I was 24hrs ago, while the models have trended towards more moisture being involved, the track of the H5 vort passes through NC. You want the vort passing to your south by 100-200 miles, not overhead. SLP does not get going to off the VA Capes, rather than east of HAT or better ILM, again, casualty of the vort trekking through NC.The vort is trending south. It was worse before, but nobody cared because there wasn't much of a storm to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Just read on DT facebook about, according to Euro , second low develops over South Carolina and that would aid in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Did you miss the snow in Fayetteville yesterday morning? Naw ... but they had sleet in Robeson County this morning. We got virga up in Harnett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The battle line is drawn for Tuesday. We are rooting for the euro/ Nam keeping the vort futher south than the 18z GFS who needlessly to say the MA is probably going gaga over. WeatherNC is right the jackpot is always about 100-150 miles north of where the vort passes. However most of us even though we would love to be in the sweet spot will gladly take a 1-2 incher. So 50-75 mile shift eitheir direction N/S on Tuesday is gonna be huge. It's on to the 0z. Right now I love the trends and the fact we have the euro, sref and 18z nam going in our favor v/s the 18z GFS. Edit: Hi res Nam says powerstroke has to go plow Big frosty driveway, 4 inches from Tobbacoville up through all of Surry county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The vort is trending south. It was worse before, but nobody cared because there wasn't much of a storm to speak of. Just curious. Why do you keep saying GFS is trending south? If you go back and look at the 500mb charts from 0Z till now 18z the vortmax in question is still coming in at the same relative angle and diving no further south then it was last night. The only really major difference I see is how the 18z has handle this vortmax... it keeps it intact instead of shearing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Just curious. Why do you keep saying GFS is trending south? If you go back and look at the 500mb charts from 0Z till now 18z the vortmax in question is still coming in at the same relative angle and diving no further south then it was last night. The only really major difference I see is how the 18z has handle this vortmax... it keeps it intact instead of shearing it out. I looked at where the height lines are, but also the max itself. It's not a big shift by any stretch, but it's there. That's the only reason this is showing up stronger. If the vort weren't digging further south, the low would be forming weaker and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Does anyone know how Fayetteville is looking....I look but don't know how to interpret these maps... FAY and the Sandhills look better with this afternoon's trend, but we've got a ways to go before you need to storm the IGA for bread and milk. Another tick south by the modeling would add more juice, but if you want more than an inch or so, we'd need to see the track dip even more, down into SC. Not sure we can coax that out of this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 I would love to change the header but I can't for the life of me figure out how. Sorry guys, but if someone tells me how I'll be glad to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I would love to change the header but I can't for the life of me figure out how. Sorry guys, but if someone tells me how I'll be glad to do it. Go back to your 1st post.... click edit... then click full edit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I looked at where the height lines are, but also the max itself. It's not a big shift by any stretch, but it's there. That's the only reason this is showing up stronger. If the vort weren't digging further south, the low would be forming weaker and out to sea. I see it.... now. Very small though. Maybe 25-50 miles at the max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I see it.... now. Very small though. Maybe 25-50 miles at the max.The GFS is the least significant with the trend, to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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