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Jan 21 Event


Poimen

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Facing the reality of no snow here in the triad, lets take a moment to face what has happened (very wet) and how that will affect us overnight and into tomorrow. Black ice problems will be SEVERE tomorrow morning and beyond. I do expect two hour delays if not cancellations around the region. The roads were not pretreated from what i can tell. And the temps around the low teens will negate any treatment anyway. So be careful folks!

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This is so much like that last clipper for the coast... Even hail reported in Charleston. Crossthread I'm not in Wilmington so keep me updated if y'all get any hail down there. 

Just became overcast as the sun set, very light rain/drizzle outside ,,,

Temps was/were setting at 60, since the drizzle started, temp has dropped to 53.0 since I posted what,  20 minutes ago? 

Seems Local AFD has been upping Our Percentage of "chances" of precipitation, from 10% this morning to Now a whopping 40%... 

Let that vortmax get another 50 miles South/SouthWest, digging just a touch more, & I'll be in the Ball-park also Folks Maybe from just more than a few *token Flakes* to something like 1/2 inch, maybe even a 1 inch,or MORE If that Vortmax reaches the coast pulls in some Atlantic & GOM Moisture,Off the GulfStream & gets cranking up as it gets going up the Coast..  Maybe even some ThunderSN?

NOT, wishcasting, anything can happen at this point...(everyone here knows this..)   It would be CRAZY to see this STALL off the Capefear Coast for a few hours, as it gets wound up, giving us here  about,1/2 of what 1989 did..

As the last few hours We have been getting Southward trends, as the Local AFD below is saying.. Which had us at NOTHING THIS MORNING

 

Local AFD is changing tune(s) again

****Near term /through tonight/...

as of 300 PM Tuesday...a Winter Weather Advisory is posted for inland

Pender...Bladen...and Robeson County for up to an inch of snow

overnight...with lesser amounts to just flurries potentially

across the northern portions of Columbus...Brunswick...and New

Hanover counties. Best timing of snowfall is from 2z/9pm over

Robeson County progressing eastward across the northern tier of

zones to inland Pender County around 5z/midnight...then off the

coast completely by 7z-8z/2am-3am.

Overlapping of saturated air between 950-800 mb...weak upward

vertical motion...and subfreezing temperatures has consistently

been portrayed in recent model runs. The system also brings to The

Table a strong middle-level vorticity impulse around 3z/10pm which

may aid in wringing out available moisture. Forecast soundings

inland are entirely sub-freezing by 10pm. The sharply colder air

will bring our temperatures below freezing across all of our zones

a hour or two after midnight...dipping into the lower and middle

20s at first light Wednesday.

 

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Down to 39 now. Impressed.

 

48 here down from 61 around 3ish I guess and dropping pretty fast at least  a few degrees every update (20 mins) at PGV for the last hr or so. If the radar fills in from the eastern band to the western band its gonna be a good storm, still puzzled by RAH backing off like they did they have RWI getting less than a 1" now on P&C but Wakefield and Morehead have almost their whole areas getting 1-3". I think they are wrong this time and most of the trianlge has 1" + easy by midnight.

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48 here down from 61 around 3ish I guess and dropping pretty fast at least  a few degrees every update (20 mins) at PGV for the last hr or so. If the radar fills in from the eastern band to the western band its gonna be a good storm, still puzzled by RAH backing off like they did they have RWI getting less than a 1" now on P&C but Wakefield and Morehead have almost their whole areas getting 1-3". I think they are wrong this time and most of the trianlge has 1" + easy by midnight.

 

I rarely post here but this puzzles me as well especially considering this line from their AFD.....

 

HOWEVER THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES

OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

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Facing the reality of no snow here in the triad, lets take a moment to face what has happened (very wet) and how that will affect us overnight and into tomorrow. Black ice problems will be SEVERE tomorrow morning and beyond. I do expect two hour delays if not cancellations around the region. The roads were not pretreated from what i can tell. And the temps around the low teens will negate any treatment anyway. So be careful folks!

 

I expect no more than patchy slick spots.  The wind will dry most roads before they can freeze.

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