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Jan 21 Event


Poimen

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Nothing like a good rain on a snow day. Jumped 8 degrees coming back from stuart to kernersville. Sun peeking through the entire time. Congrats to any and all who get snow but i cant torture myself waiting for the inevitable nothingness. Not a winner this time!

 

What in the world are you talking about? It was 49 and sunny when I left Robinhood Rd. Now it's 44 and cloudy in K-ville. I'm over by East Forsyth High School. What part of K-ville are you in?

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What in the world are you talking about? It was 49 and sunny when I left Robinhood Rd. Now it's 44 and cloudy in K-ville. I'm over by East Forsyth High School. What part of K-ville are you in?

You are correct. I was talking about jump from 37 to 45 on the ride back from stuart va. Much colder an hour north.

We may get in on the action but downsloping is not our friend. The precip looks to crank up again either right over the triad or just to the east.

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Same thing was said about that band last year that got me. I believe temps hit 50 and as soon as the band came through blamo we had snow sticking to the ground. 

 

 

Going to go from low 60's to upper teens in 12-18hrs alone is pretty cool add the chance of a few inches of snow and its down right awesome, and if the models keep it up it might even be more like 3-4" I just hope they have a handle on it somewhat.

 

Yeah, you guys are right.  It's just not a common thing to go from near 60 to snow in 4 hours.  That's a heckuva drop.

 

Latest HRRR says that the Triad south and east should be in for some fun and games.  It keeps inching further South and West each run, but it's not going to make it back to Charlotte I don't think.  Maybe there will be some flakes in the air for all

 

Definitely liking the trends here.

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From NWS Raleigh:

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM MONDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND BLACK ICE
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...

...BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS WILL RESULT
IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LATE TONIGHT WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

OVERVIEW: SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OH/TN
VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
LATE THIS EVENING...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED TONIGHT AS IT LIFTS
NE TO THE DELMARVA AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE BY 06-12Z WED. THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NC THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE ARCTIC
FRONT CONTINUE TO SURGE EASTWARD THROUGH 00Z...WITH RAPID DEEPENING
AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. -CBL

AN AREA OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE
TRIANGLE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD.
THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE
TRIAD AS OF 18Z...BUT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS PRECIP SHOULD START AS RAIN...BUT WITH STRONG
CAA BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT A QUICK CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW. THE
STRONG CAA WILL ALSO HELP STEEPEN THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH
AS THE MODELS INDICATE...MAY LEAD TO A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN THE MORE BROAD AREA...ALTHOUGH THE LOCATION
VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE GROUND TEMPERATURE MAY BE WARM
ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH ACCUMULATION WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL...HOWEVER
THE SNOWFALL INTENSITY WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND COULD BE GREAT
ENOUGH TO YIELD AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS RAPIDLY BEGIN TO INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 15-20:1
BY 00Z AS THE LOW/MID LEVELS RAPIDLY COOL. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
THAT SOME OR MUCH OF THE PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL OCCUR AS RAIN OR AS
LIGHT NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WHERE DAYTIME TEMPS PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF PRECIP COULD CLIMB TO NEAR
60. HOWEVER THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. COMBINED WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA...AN ADVISORY FOR ALL
OF CENTRAL NC WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES: LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE DRIVEN BY VERY STRONG COLD
ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
LOWER/MID TEENS (FAR NW) TO NEAR 20F FAR SE. GIVEN EXTENT OF COLD
AIR...ANY WETNESS/MOISTURE ON ROADS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL FREEZE RESULTING IN TREACHEROUS ICY ROAD CONDITIONS.

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MHX has upped us to 1-2" in the point and click this is a up from less than half a inch guess they believe the trends but it  seems they think it will all fall in 2 hrs lol.....I forget what the WSW criteria here is but 3" in less than 6 hrs might be enough to do it.

 

Rain and snow likely before 11pm, then a chance of snow between 11pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. North wind 15 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

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I'm not sure WRAL's timing is going to work out so well.

 

The timing on most winter events is terrible around here, its always starts either early or late and always ends earlier or later than forecast......yesterday they had us changing over to snow around 4 pm or basically right now. I bet its still snowing along the coastal areas at dawn tomorrow hell maybe even here.

 

I suppose since this thing seems to be digging further SW than modeled yesterday that everything is going to happen later and really that helps snow totals I think since most of us wil lsee our snow overnight.

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