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Jan 21 Event


Poimen

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packfan98, on 21 Jan 2014 - 1:11 PM, said:

Latest RAP has the s/w stronger and slower as it swings across this evening,  Can you tell where the best lift (and deathband) will be?

 

Newest HRRR has pretty much the same exact placement of the deathband as the RAP. Bet the rates under that thing would be awesome.

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Newest HRRR has pretty much the same exact placement of the deathband as the RAP. Bet the rates under that thing would be awesome.

What are you honestly expecting out of this thing man? Are we lucky to get 3" or is that too much? Will that vort help to enhance precip more? You can see the precip breaking out now over western va

Ps check out that link Bob Chill included in the MA forum that radar shot is sweet there are some convective elements it looks like possibly in those bands to our west headed this way.

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Buddy1987, on 21 Jan 2014 - 1:20 PM, said:

What are you honestly expecting out of this thing man? Are we lucky to get 3" or is that too much? Will that vort help to enhance precip more? You can see the precip breaking out now over western va

 

If the band sets up as it's showing right now, I bet we do pretty good. Temperatures should (hopefully) begin to crash once the band gets going. We've pretty much been the bullseye for the band on the Hi-Res models for I don't know how many runs now. All this should be frozen..

 

2HzgGH8.png

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If you want to see down sloping @ it's best come on up to Surry county. You can see the snow falling in the distance in the mountains as you a driving up 52 toward Mt. Airy , as you are driving while the sun is shining right in your face. :thumbsdown:

Dead on the money. Sun is still out off and on here in stuart. Only high clouds as the heavier precip is clearly staying bqck over the higher terrain. This thing is going to jump the triad and foothills.

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Man that dry slot/area in north NC is a worry. The latest RAP shifted me back into the > .15 but anyone of us could end up inside of it.

 

Look how it ends up screwing somebody in NC.....

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=17&fhour=11&parameter=PCPIN&level=6&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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Dead on the money. Sun is still out off and on here in stuart. Only high clouds as the heavier precip is clearly staying bqck over the higher terrain. This thing is going to jump the triad and foothills.

That is what clippers normally do and it doesn't matter how many posts there are here claiming and wishing for otherwise leading up to the event.

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Man that dry slot/area in north NC is a worry. The latest RAP shifted me back into the > .15 but anyone of us could end up inside of it.

 

Look how it ends up screwing somebody in NC.....

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=17&fhour=11&parameter=PCPIN&level=6&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

 

Yeah...it's going to be close for us but I am beginning to like our chances of 1-2" in this area with 2-4" amounts not terribly far to the east. I think many of us on the board will be pleased to see snow on the ground when all is said and done.

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Man that dry slot/area in north NC is a worry. The latest RAP shifted me back into the > .15 but anyone of us could end up inside of it.

 

Look how it ends up screwing somebody in NC.....

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=17&fhour=11&parameter=PCPIN&level=6&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Yeah I've got a bad feeling that Durham is going to fall squarely in that hole, I guess we'll just have to keep our fingers crossed.

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Man that dry slot/area in north NC is a worry. The latest RAP shifted me back into the > .15 but anyone of us could end up inside of it.

 

Look how it ends up screwing somebody in NC.....

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=17&fhour=11&parameter=PCPIN&level=6&unit=HR&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Yep, the Wake County precip hole is going to be funny.

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If the band sets up as it's showing right now, I bet we do pretty good. Temperatures should (hopefully) begin to crash once the band gets going. We've pretty much been the bullseye for the band on the Hi-Res models for I don't know how many runs now. All this should be frozen..

 

2HzgGH8.png

Could you tell me where I can find these maps for the HRRR? thank you.

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If the band sets up as it's showing right now, I bet we do pretty good. Temperatures should (hopefully) begin to crash once the band gets going. We've pretty much been the bullseye for the band on the Hi-Res models for I don't know how many runs now. All this should be frozen..

 

2HzgGH8.png

If u are east of the band that is setting up in the triad area I think you are safe bet to get measurable snow. It looks like a feedback problem like you see with thunderstorms on the gulf coast but on a smaller scale. Models are probably are having major problems with just how intense this band will be. 

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From WxSouth on facebook:

 

For eastern NC, VA and the Demarva region tonight is the timeframe to watch. The storm will really organize quickly off the OBX region and pull northeast off the Capes, wrapping windy , snowy weather from northeast NC, eastern VA and through the East Coast, with heavy rates of snow coming down very far eastern sections.
Several inches are possible even at the coast.

 

 

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Yeah I've got a bad feeling that Durham is going to fall squarely in that hole, I guess we'll just have to keep our fingers crossed.

Well, here is to hoping.

 

 

 

ETA* - hoping for Durham to fall in a hole.  In case that was unclear. 

 

I hope you get tons of snow tho.

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