downeastnc Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 There was once I remember in 02 or 03 that we had a clipperish system that came through here and we picked up 2-3 inches and it started with temps around 40 and was in upper 20s when it stopped and around Gaffney, they got 8-9 inches I bet that was the storm I was talking about in Jan 2003 here is the snowfall map a real bookend type storm the mts and Hatteras where the big winner a real rare storm though all things considered http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20030123/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 It looks rough here. Archdale NC 7 Day Forecast Raleigh, NC NWS Weather Forecast Office THISAFTERNOON Sunny High: 48 °F TONIGHT Clear Low: 28 °F M.L.KINGDAY Sunny High: 59 °F MONDAYNIGHT PartlyCloudy Low: 33 °F TUESDAY MostlySunny High: 41 °F TUESDAYNIGHT MostlyClear Low: 17 °F WEDNESDAY Sunny High: 31 °F WEDNESDAYNIGHT PartlyCloudy Low: 19 °F THURSDAY MostlySunny High: 32 °F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I'm going to channel Brick for a moment: " some of our best snows are surprises that are two days out or less" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I bet that was the storm I was talking about in Jan 2003 here is the snowfall map a real bookend type storm the mts and Hatteras where the big winner a real rare storm though all things considered http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20030123/ snow_20030123.gif That's my favorite storm... just came thru (don't think it was forecasted?) and bombed out pretty much over MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 RaleighWx recently tweeted that the new Euro has .5 to 1 inch of snow for central and eastern NC and VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I'm going to channel Brick for a moment: " some of our best snows are surprises that are two days out or less"[/quoteSo true, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 RaleighWx recently tweeted that the new Euro has .5 to 1 inch of snow for central and eastern NC and VA. Yep, saw that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The Canadian looks interesting for N NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Wow, there's a couple of SREF members that go nuts on Tuesday. Sure are. Wow. Thanks for pointing this out. Looks like a .15 maximum in WNC close to HKY on the SREF Individual members are for all intents and purposes worthless, but they are fun to look at. Keeping in mind Brad P.'s blog post yesterday, one SREF member spits out 8 inches of snow at Hickory, and another spits out 6 inches on Tuesday night. Charlotte's data is similar. The average SREF snowfall for Hickory as of 9Z is now just north of 1 inch, while at 3Z it was 0.01 inch. Big swing in the data, and it's not just because of those two crazy outliers. I count about one half of the SREF members having snowfall amounts right at 1 inch of snowfall or greater for Tuesday night at Hickory. But, this has just sprung out of nowhere. It's hard to express how differently the 3Z and 9Z runs look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Nice trends today. Love to see (1) this event come to fruition (2) Get the qpf up to .25+. (3) See the Nam/GFS give a vote of confidence before kickoff time (4) get rid of the shadow for the foothill guys. Happy hour will be interesting, hopefully the pos trends will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Just playing negative nancy, but tomorrow is going to be in the 60s outside the mtns and our Tuesday high is low 50s, the timing on this is Tuesday night? All that moisture before the cold would just be turrible The SREF model has no problem dropping the temp, like a rock: The SREF mean projected temp at Hickory goes from roughly 55 F on Monday late afternoon to 10 F on Wednesday at dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Nice trends today. Love to see (1) this event come to fruition (2) Get the qpf up to .25+. (3) See the Nam/GFS give a vote of confidence before kickoff time (4) get rid of the shadow for the foothill guys. Happy hour will be interesting, hopefully the pos trends will continue. Thanks for the love, NCSNOW. I don't like to publicly complain about this issue, because we all have reasons for why it won't snow in our locales, and no one really likes a whiner. But, the snow shadow of the Apps is quite frustrating. This incredibly wet and snowy trend on the SREF is so abruptly different than what has been forecasted recently. It lends credence to proceeding with caution for all of us. The 15Z data should be out relatively soon, and it may completely reverse course. Time will tell. But the trend is temporarily a gift to snow-starved citizens of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 How would snowfall ratios be for this potential event? I notice 850s are very cold. It makes me a little weary that the NAM is bone dry for the western half of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 SREF gives the northern and central Sandhills a nice dusting as well from 22Z through 04Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 New NAM looks very different with precip breaking out big time hour 42 Along the TN border up into VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 NAM is much wetter. This is on top of the 15z SREF (which held firm) and the 12z Euro (which gave .5-1" to much of NC per Allan). Good trends this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Guidance seems pretty set in keeping the heaviest axis through central VA into the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Boy, I hope the 18z NAM is the start of a trend. That'd be good 1-3" for N Central NC taken per batum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Wow, 18Z NAM matches up well with the latest SREF.... I-40 Special in NC http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=060ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_060_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 come on southwest trend! When has that ever happened in the history of model trends... my guess would be never. If this thing does evolve differently than was recently modeled I wonder how much it changes things later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Wow, nice little system. Shift that bad-boy south just a bit, and even our southern friends south of us can cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Wow I hope this trend continues. As much as .25-.5" falls. Temps look to crash in the mid 20s. Snow ratios would be higher than the typical 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Now this system has upper-level support if the NAM is to be believed. I'm optimistic about this system now 1. the jet stream is above and west of the surface low (negating the jet upstream) 2. the trough is diffluent. 3. the negative trough is west and above of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Wow I hope this trend continues. As much as .25-.5" falls. Temps look to crash in the mid 20s. Snow ratios would be higher than the typical 10:1. It's actually hard to even get to 10:1. It has to be particularly cold at all levels. I doubt we'd get 10:1 with this, but much better than the usual 4:1-ish that we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Not sure if you guys have ever heard of the CRAS model, but it's more weeniesh than the DGEX! I'm pretty sure this model have never gotten anything right, but might as well post it sense every other model is posted. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/index_pcp_l_loop.html http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/model_l.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 RAH starting to put their two cents towards the potential event. This is very typical of how they step towards an event and by stepping that means they can step back as well. So as of right now, they are mentioning a dusting along and north of US 64. TUE AND TUE NIGHT: A COUPLE OF NORTHERN AND ARCTIC STREAM SHORTWAVETROUGHS WILL PIVOT EASTWARD AND ASSUME AN INCREASINGLY NEUTRAL TILTAS THE NEARLY PHASED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES THE APPALACHIANSAND CAROLINAS THROUGH TUE EVENING...AND CONSEQUENTLY CENTERS 150METER MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE CAROLINAS BY 00Z WED. GUIDANCEIS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING A COUPLE OF LOBES OF RELATIVELY DEEPMOISTURE SWEEPING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC. THE FIRST...LIKELY INTHE FORM OF VIRGA OWING TO A RELATIVELY DEEP AND DRY SUB-CLOUDLAYER...WILL CROSS DURING THE MORNING...WHILE THE SECOND - A DEEPERAND LARGER ONE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS - WILLPASS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATTER ONE HAS THEPOTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS THE PARENTFORCING FOR ASCENT INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NC/VA COAST. NWPGUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SOMEWHAT WETTER WRT QPF...HIGHLIGHTED BY ALITTLE GREATER THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT INDICATEDBY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GEM OVER THE NC NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND COASTALPLAIN TUE AFTERNOON AND EVE.TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...INTO THE LOWER40S NW PIEDMONT TO AROUND 50 DEGREES OVER THE EASTERN SANDHILLS ANDSOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...BEFORE THE CLOUDS THICKEN AND THE ARCTICCOLD FRONT ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PLUNGES SOUTHEASTWARDTHROUGH CENTRAL NC. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND BUFR WET BULB THERMALPROFILES WOULD SUPPORT A SIMILAR P-TYPE TRANSITION AS EARLIER IN THEWEEK...WITH LIGHT RAIN TRANSITIONING TO A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW. UP TO ADUSTING WOULD ACCORDINGLY BE POSSIBLE ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY64...RANGING TO LITTLE OR NOTHING (LIQUID OR OTHERWISE) OVER THESOUTHERN PIEDMONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 A dusting seems reasonable considering it will be a rain to snow transition and fairly quick hitting system. Still, I like where this is headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Wow, nice little system. Shift that bad-boy south just a bit, and even our southern friends south of us can cash in. Our southern friends do tend to be south us. The 15Z SREF mean has dropped a few of the extreme outliers for Hickory, but it does still show a mean snowfall of 1 inch. Raleigh's about the same. Greensboro is closer to 2 inches on the mean and Charlotte is near 0.5 inch. Nice to see the trend continue in a good direction. I realize that 1 inch of snow is relatively small in the grand scheme of things, but I must admit that I would be incredibly excited by just this small result should it come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Our southern friends do tend to be south us. The 15Z SREF mean has dropped a few of the extreme outliers for Hickory, but it does still show a mean snowfall of 1 inch. Raleigh's about the same. Greensboro is closer to 2 inches on the mean and Charlotte is near 0.5 inch. Nice to see the trend continue in a good direction. I realize that 1 inch of snow is relatively small in the grand scheme of things, but I must admit that I would be incredibly excited by just this small result should it come to fruition. I haven't seen an inch of snow since December 26, 2010. I'll take it. Of course, more would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Not sure if you guys have ever heard of the CRAS model, but it's more weeniesh than the DGEX! I'm pretty sure this model have never gotten anything right, but might as well post it sense every other model is posted. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/index_pcp_l_loop.html http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/model_l.html That sucker would even have us getting some sort of frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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