superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 We definitely need to watch for thundersnow later. Whoever gets in some heavier bands might have a shot at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 9:30 am update from KCAE for anyone in South Carolina wondering: E HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT BECAUSE OF THIS WIND. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE NORTH OF THE LOW. THE EXTREME NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THIS MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND WE HAVE FORECASTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE DEVELOPING LOW COULD POSSIBLY PUSH A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHWARD AND GET INTO LANCASTER AND CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THE SPC WRF SHOWS THIS MOISTURE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT WE BELIEVE THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. STRONG H85 COLD ADVECTION AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO SHOW MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD BEGINNING AROUND 00Z AND BEFORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES REACH THE AREA. IF ANY SNOW WERE TO OCCUR IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND LIGHT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. In other words; no go for KCAE or most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 9:30 am update from KCAE for anyone in South Carolina wondering: In other words; no go for KCAE or most of us. We do terrible in a NW flow here. I see really promising returns on the Huntsville radar, but the chances of it getting here are slim to none. Surprise me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The latest RAP brings a sick band across the Triad. RDU gets screwed. It will be different in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Been snowing since 7am and no accumulation. What a waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The latest RAP brings a sick band across the Triad. RDU gets screwed. It will be different in an hour. Wonder why? FWIW, the latest HRRR I just looked at upped the snowfall amounts a little bit around and just east of the Triangle. Last run had a dusting to an inch area-wide. This one now has pockets of 1-2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 HRRR looks good for Eastern NC. Not sure what it was doing earlier. I would be surprised if someone in NC doesn't see thundersnow today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The latest RAP brings a sick band across the Triad. RDU gets screwed. It will be different in an hour. I find it interesting that so many of the short term models are bringing a significant line of precip. southeast from north of the triad down through the sandhills and curving through the coastal plain. I guess its because of the clipper-system digging so much, but I don't think I've seen anything like this before. Anyway, I'm starting to think James might be right with the idea of thundersnow putting down a quick 1/2-1 inch in a 15-30 minute time period this evening. The returns being depicted are stronger than what they are showing for the midatlantic and we will be so much closer to the bundled energy. Interesting at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Wonder why? FWIW, the latest HRRR I just looked at upped the snowfall amounts a little bit around and just east of the Triangle. Last run had a dusting to an inch area-wide. This one now has pockets of 1-2 inches. Matches up very with RGEM, precip hole for RDU….I do think just east of us may pick up 2"+, your right on the border. RGEM on the left, RAP on the right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I mean reallyyy temp has gone from 33.6 to 35.8! Grrr what a waste for all that this morning. Barely even doing anything outside now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I find it interesting that so many of the short term models are bringing a significant line of precip. southeast from north of the triad down through the sandhills and curving through the coastal plain. I guess its because of the clipper-system digging so much, but I don't think I've seen anything like this before. Anyway, I'm starting to think James might be right with the idea of thundersnow putting down a quick 1/2-1 inch in a 15-30 minute time period this evening. The returns being depicted are stronger than what they are showing for the midatlantic and we will be so much closer to the bundled energy. Interesting at least.It's down sloping effect from the Uwharries. Apex will be in the shadow and get nada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Looks like all the models are coming to a consensus. The GFS is wetter and more south. Seems to match up with the RAP and HRRR depictions above. 06z GFS new 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It's down sloping effect from the Uwharries. Apex will be in the shadow and get nada! Same thing seems to happen when squall lines weaken coming into Raleigh then reform east of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 HRRR looks good for Eastern NC. Not sure what it was doing earlier. I would be surprised if someone in NC doesn't see thundersnow today. It's pretty rare, although seeing it popping up on text soundings IMBY is comforting. I'd love to see those kind of rates with this strom. If I witness thundersnow I'll be satisfied for this winter, honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 As of now I'm sitting at 57 with clear and sunny skies. Im forecasted for 60 with a low of 20. this is going to be fun to watch unfold.. maybe that's why the lastest models are upping their total to 1 to 2 inches in some areas due to the instability in the eastern part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Sunny. Blue sky. Kind of dusty in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 From NWS Raleigh .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AS OF 930 AM MONDAY......WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSSCENTRAL NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING......BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR COMBINED WITH BLUSTERY NW WINDS WILL RESULTIN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS LATE TONIGHT WEDNESDAYMORNING...OVERVIEW: SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OH/TNVALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CAROLINASLATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ASSUMING A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHTAS IT LIFTS NE TO THE DELMARVA AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE BY 06-12Z WED. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NC THAT HAS DEVELOPEDALONG THE ENCROACHING ARCTIC FRONT...WILL INITIALLY MOVE VERY LITTLETHIS MORNING...BEFORE SURGING EASTWARD BETWEEN 18 TO 00Z WITH RAPIDDEEPENING AS HE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER THE WARM GULF STREAMWATERS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST.MODEL TRENDS: LATEST GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN GOODAGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LOW...WITH THE BASE OF THETROUGH PIVOTING OVER THE AREA...PUTTING CENTRAL NC IN THE PROVERBIALSWEET SPOT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE SECONDARY QPF AXIS ASSOCIATED WITHTHE UPPER LOW DYNAMICS RESULTS IN AN AVERAGE OF 0.10" IN THE WEST TO0.20" IN THE EAST.THE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOW THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST...WITHSIGNIFICANT H5 HEIGHT FALLS OVER TN/KY. AT H25 THERE ARE THREESEPARATE JET STREAKS...ONE ON EITHER SIDE AND ONE AT THE BASE OF THETROUGH. THIS SHOULD HELP SUPPORT THE TROUGH BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTEDAS IT PIVOTS OVER NC. A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS EVIDENT ATH85...WITH CAA FROM THE NW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.ACROSS THE EAST...MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT INHIGHS SOME 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN EXPECTED IN THE NW.A SOLID AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO FILL ACROSS THEAREA BETWEEN 21 T0 00Z VIA STRONG DPVA AND COINCIDENT WITH A BAND OFSTRONG LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIP WILLSTART OUT AS RAIN BUT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW AS STRONG CAAIN THE LOW-LEVELS AND ALOFT OVERTAKE THE AREA. ANY ACCUMULATION WITHJUST THIS FORCING/QPF ALONE WOULD BE LIGHT...PERHAPS A TRACE-DUSTINGACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THAT WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF LIGHTPRECIP...THAT A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BAND DRIVEN BY STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE ATTENDANT COLD CORE COULD RESULT INLOCALLY HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK 1 TO 2INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION AS SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS RAPIDLY BEGIN TOINCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 15-20:1 BY 00Z AS THE LOW/MID LEVELS RAPIDLYCOOL. GIVEN SOUTHERN SHIFT IN MODEL GUIDANCE...THIS MESOSCALE SNOWBAND COULD OCCUR ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING SOUTHERNAND COASTAL COUNTIES WITH SUPPORT OF THE HI-RES REF SIMULATIONS.THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT SOME OR MUCH OF THE PRECIP THAT FALLSWILL OCCUR AS RAIN OR AS LIGHT NON-ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLYACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WHERE DAYTIME TEMPS PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OFPRECIP COULD CLIMB TO NEAR 60. HOWEVER SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN GUIDANCEJUSTIFIES AN ADVISORY FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NC FORTHIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I mean reallyyy temp has gone from 33.6 to 35.8! Grrr what a waste for all that this morning. Barely even doing anything outside now. Here have some snow, but it won't even give you a dusting. Quite frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Matches up very with RGEM, precip hole for RDU….I do think just east of us may pick up 2"+, your right on the border. RGEM on the left, RAP on the right. Ha. My house is just southeast of the relative min. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spidyr2k Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It's pretty rare, although seeing it popping up on text soundings IMBY is comforting. I'd love to see those kind of rates with this strom. If I witness thundersnow I'll be satisfied for this winter, honestly. Ditto. Sunny and 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It's pretty rare, although seeing it popping up on text soundings IMBY is comforting. I'd love to see those kind of rates with this strom. If I witness thundersnow I'll be satisfied for this winter, honestly. Hell yeah I havent heard thunder in the snow since Dec 2001, liking the trends most of the high res stuff has this area getting hit decent with QPF now we just need it all to be snow, sucks I am at work all day and cant really get model runs....luckily you guys are doing a good job posting them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Snowing nicely in Boone. http://www.resortcams.com/webcameras-king-street-boone.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It's pretty rare, although seeing it popping up on text soundings IMBY is comforting. I'd love to see those kind of rates with this strom. If I witness thundersnow I'll be satisfied for this winter, honestly. Just curious... can you do one for KTDF? Thanks. BTW have yall notice too that it wraps up that convection in the GOM around the Vort... If it does precip totals could be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 here's where the s/w max appears to be at 10:30 per WV. I think a general 1-3 across central/eastern NC is a good bet. more out towards newport news/ va beach/northeast nc due to coastal enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Around 40 with high stratus clouds in Durham. Still only a 50-70% chance of precip. according to various sources such as Accuweather and the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I actually heard a little thundersnow on January 17, 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sugaree Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I remember that as well, from last year. The final accumulation was nothing extraordinary, but I distinctly remember hearing thunder three times, as well as seeing a bit of lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fury88 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Hell yeah I havent heard thunder in the snow since Dec 2001, liking the trends most of the high res stuff has this area getting hit decent with QPF now we just need it all to be snow, sucks I am at work all day and cant really get model runs....luckily you guys are doing a good job posting them. I heard some w/ lightning on the way to Charlotte back in December. We got that quick snow-squall that happened on the changeover. That was amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 High of 56 forecast for today and a low of 19. currently a beautiful 53. Hoping some of these RAP images being posted in the other thread come to fruition. Fay could really, really use some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 here's where the s/w max appears to be at 10:30 per WV. I think a general 1-3 across central/eastern NC is a good bet. more out towards newport news/ va beach/northeast nc due to coastal enhancement. That's interesting. It looks like the s/w is about 30-40 miles west and further south than the depictions on the RAP. Don't know if it will translate to anything later. Keep digging!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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