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Jan 21 Event


Poimen

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I wouldn't worry too much about temps today. As RAH stated:

* TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TODAY... BUT FALL RAPIDLY INTO THE

LOWER 30S AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES

WILL FALL THROUGH THE 20S THIS EVENING.

HRRR is a problem. It has plenty of precip for Central North Carolina and Eastern NC, but surface temps are still well in the 40s. RAP is completely different with respect to temperatures.

You guys better have some pictures or video of the snow and thundersnow. :D :D

Looking forward to my 40mph gusts this afternoon.

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Robert just posted this on FB....

WxSouth After looking at RAP, NAM and GFS snow forecasts I'm probably overdone on my snow amounts in Lynchburg area and most of southern, central VA. Unless that upper system coming through NC this afternoon can really fill in the gap in southern , western VA this afternoon. Looks disorganized right now on the models, and part of central, northeast NC may end up with more snow than say LYH or DAN

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I wouldn't worry too much about temps today. As RAH stated:

 

* TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TODAY... BUT FALL RAPIDLY INTO THE

LOWER 30S AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES

WILL FALL THROUGH THE 20S THIS EVENING.

 

I know its just the lower off we start the less melting at the surface we will have....

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Robert just posted this on FB....

WxSouth After looking at RAP, NAM and GFS snow forecasts I'm probably overdone on my snow amounts in Lynchburg area and most of southern, central VA. Unless that upper system coming through NC this afternoon can really fill in the gap in southern , western VA this afternoon. Looks disorganized right now on the models, and part of central, northeast NC may end up with more snow than say LYH or DAN

That sounds great for us, but we will have to worry about where that band sets up. RAH stated in their discussion that we were in the "Sweet Spot". That actually scares me because that sweet spot can move...or not even develop. **but still liking our chances. Just typical of most our winter events.

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Robert just posted this on FB....

WxSouth After looking at RAP, NAM and GFS snow forecasts I'm probably overdone on my snow amounts in Lynchburg area and most of southern, central VA. Unless that upper system coming through NC this afternoon can really fill in the gap in southern , western VA this afternoon. Looks disorganized right now on the models, and part of central, northeast NC may end up with more snow than say LYH or DAN

 

Thats interesting which really RAP does look better for NC then VA/DC area. Go figure.

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=11&fhour=18&parameter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=loopmaps&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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Sunny and 35. Nearly a 30 degree drop from yesterdays high. Clouds black off to the west and NW looking towards Martinsville, VA and Danville, VA.

 

Should see some snow soon with the first band coming through.  That band is really developing now since it crossed the mountains.

 

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=FCX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

 

 

 

Edit... Any met or anybody know whats causing this on RAH radar the banding feature 

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=rax&loop=yes

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Just looking at the s/w on the latest ruc, it is in an ideal place for clipper snows ( the general 1-2 incher types). With the slp development off of hatteras, I think portions of far northeast NC could do quite well late tonight if you're in a favorable band. Isolated 3 or 4 inches wouldn't surprise me.

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Not feeling too confident about Charlotte's chances based on the RAP. Hope to see some flurries today, that should at least be fun. Sitting at 41 and starting to get cloudy.

The RAP keeps bouncing around with where it puts the heavier stuff. Still seems to want to favor southern piedmont, but NAM and GFS have returned to their central/northern piedmont solutions. I do think we are now in nowcast time.
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I was definitely surprised that the models took a pretty dramatic shift south with the s/w last night with less than 24 hours before the event.  All of the short term models have some area of the piedmont of NC getting at least an inch or two of snow.  Most are for the northeast NC although the nam went with a strip east of Charlotte across the NC/SC border counties.  Another one was the Greensboro area.  Looks like a wait and see where the band of goodness sets up.  Good luck everyone!

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