Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Well at least thru 15 the GFS isn't as pitiful as the nam was with precip field Boom at 18! Where's disc at?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 GFS did take a slight south jog compared to 18z. So perhaps on a large scale it's noticing that change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Buddy1987, on 20 Jan 2014 - 10:29 PM, said:Well at least thru 15 the GFS isn't as pitiful as the nam was with precip field Actually it took a small step south when compared to 18z. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 RGEM looks very similar to the NAM's, 1-2" of snow band running just E-NE of Wake County. Looks very similar to the NAM, especially early on with the local max around CLT. H5 splits, weaker piece into the tidewater, max visiting South of the Boarder, or close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yeah, has that extra band that the NAM showed, albeit a little further west. Not great, though. No more than an inch taken verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 From spits to inches...gotta love Dialing for Models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I'll go ahead and run with that GFS precip output on the 27 hr total qpf end up somewhere between .25-.50 hopefully ratios will help a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The central NC folks should like Brad P's in-house 4K model for snowfall totals. And, here's a link to an animated GIF of the action tomorrow from the same model. Meanwhile, WRAL's in- house only shows a dusting for Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Oh no, RAH just updated with this... WRT TOMORROWS FORECAST... THE 00Z HAS TRENDED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWITH THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX... WHICH USUALLY MEANS A BETTERCHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR CENTRAL NC THIS TIME OF YEAR WITHSUCH A SYSTEM. HOWEVER... WANT TO SEE THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ALONGWITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION ON A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THUS... A WINTER WEATHERADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED THIS EVENING. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlzVDDSfeeA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Meanwhile, WRAL's in- house only shows a dusting for Raleigh. WRAL is always right, I would go with that one, I think points NE of us in NC will see 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 WRAL is always right, I would go with that one, I think points NE of us in NC will see 1-3". They have busted both ways in the past. They have a habit now of being very conservative and then upping the totals as the snow falls so they can say they didn't cry wolf. It has been that way ever since Greg had to sit in the fountain after calling for a big snow that didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thekidcurtis Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The central NC folks should like Brad P's in-house 4K model for snowfall totals. And, here's a link to an animated GIF of the action tomorrow from the same model. Meanwhile, WRAL's in- house only shows a dusting for Raleigh. While the model showed a dusting, they however painted Wake in a 1-2" area on the projected map. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Oh no, RAH just updated with this... WRT TOMORROWS FORECAST... THE 00Z HAS TRENDED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX... WHICH USUALLY MEANS A BETTER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR CENTRAL NC THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH SUCH A SYSTEM. HOWEVER... WANT TO SEE THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ALONG WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. THUS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED THIS EVENING. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlzVDDSfeeA Sounds like a jinx watch is in effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The energy streaming further south is definitely a good sign for those of us in central NC who want to see some of the white stuff. It'll be interesting to see if the global models agree. I'd keep an eye on the HRRR forecasts tomorrow as the event gets closer and starts to unfold. It's resolved a number of events in the Mid-Atlantic particularly well this season and could give us an early idea of who the "winners" and "losers" might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The energy streaming further south is definitely a good sign for those of us in central NC who want to see some of the white stuff. It'll be interesting to see if the global models agree. I'd keep an eye on the HRRR forecasts tomorrow as the event gets closer and starts to unfold. It's resolved a number of events in the Mid-Atlantic particularly well this season and could give us an early idea of who the "winners" and "losers" might be. The model precip fields have not shown this southerly piece to be favorable for us, but much better for the central and southern coastal plain. What do you make of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The only 2 reason I can see that the big ole doughnut forms and skips most of western and central NC is possible the low is jumping to the coastal regions. Looking at the WV the low could just pull dry air in also and it just enhance the downslope coming off the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Temp is down to 33 IMBY from 61 earlier. That in itself is unbelievable. Nearly 30 degrees in 8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 From flurries to nothing to this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Nuttin but stars, moon and now sliding off into the upper 30's. Headed to Stuart Va in the morning. Looking forward to some mountain snow on the ride back tomorrow pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Looking at radar returns, with 9-12 hours to go before this batch of precip swings through, things look really slow to me. Nothing showing up outside of western ky and western tn. Radar loop shows little progression eastward or southeastward. So if this slows down further than modeled today we should see increased qpf's just north of the lp track, correct? And what is the best model to show that so close to onset? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I can't believe the depths of desperation in which this place has fallen to...oh well. 31 and heavy darkness at 5:30 am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY...SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON449 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TOMIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PMTHIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT.* LOCATIONS...ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.* HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT SNOW AND POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE.* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.* TIMING...COLD AIR RUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT.* IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK AROUND OR NEAR THE EVENING RUSH HOUR THROUG THE EVENING HOURS. DUE TO RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... A FLASH FREEZE OF WATER OR BLACK ICE MAY ALSO QUICKLY DEVELOP.* TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TODAY... BUT FALL RAPIDLY INTO THE LOWER 30S AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 20S THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Hope the Advisory verifies for yall down this way. Good luck and may the snow be with you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I don't have any science to back me up but i would be really surprised to see 50 tomorrow. Well its 30 out there as I go to work and we are suppose to get to 55 for a high lol and they say we are going to change to snow around 4pm that's quite a range and only 10 hrs to pull it off...... A chance of rain after 1pm, mixing with snow after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 55. Breezy, with a light and variable wind becoming west 15 to 20 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 6z models still showing precip (NC / S.Va) for todays storm. NAM still the wettest but both give the idea of .1 or greater amounts for north, central, and eastern NC. Eastern NC. Probably a lot of 1" totals with a few isolated 2" readings. 6z NAM 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC449 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THEEVENING...TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN ARCTICFRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE TO LIGHTSNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS A VIGOROUS UPPERLEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING.NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-212100-/O.NEW.KRAH.WW.Y.0001.140121T2100Z-140122T0500Z/PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...NASHVILLE...RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY...SILER CITY...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY...SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...SELMA...BENSON...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...TROY...BISCOE...MOUNT GILEAD...SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...SEVEN LAKES...SANFORD...DUNN...ERWIN...ANGIER...LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM...HAMLET...EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON449 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TOMIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT SNOW... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PMTHIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT.* LOCATIONS...ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.* HAZARD TYPES...LIGHT SNOW AND POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE.* ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO LOCALLY 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. AREAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.* TIMING...COLD AIR RUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT.* IMPACTS...ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK AROUND OR NEAR THE EVENING RUSH HOUR THROUG THE EVENING HOURS. DUE TO RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... A FLASH FREEZE OF WATER OR BLACK ICE MAY ALSO QUICKLY DEVELOP.* TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD TODAY... BUT FALL RAPIDLY INTO THE LOWER 30S AS THE PRECIPITATION FALLS LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 20S THIS EVENING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSETRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITEDVISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.&&$$PWB/CBL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 6z nam has trended wetter from 0z... the snow hole filled in. 6z gfs has trend dryer for southern portions... but relatively unchanged in NE sections. Interestingly enough last couple of runs of Rap is pretty wet shows scattered pockets of .3-.4" qpf mainly central,northern and western sections. One run even had a pocket of .5". The rest of NC east of RDU has yet to be determined. Simulated radars look good over the next 18 hours or so from the Rap. Appears too keeps the vortmax along the southern sections around the NC/SC line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 27 @ the house and 33 up here in town this a.m. Actually had frost lon the car and ground. Clouds starting to roll in. Would love to see an inch of snow but not expecting it. Can't wait for late weekend/early next week . I still like the prospects of the 1st true synoptic snow for the SE in a long time. Good luck to everyone today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Check out the convection firing in the GOM. You can see the vort swinging SE through NW TN as well. Wont be long before the VA boys on here start reporting snow flying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Check out the convection firing in the GOM. You can see the vort swinging SE through NW TN as well. Wont be long before the VA boys on here start reporting snow flying Sure is... hopefully it won't kill any moisture on the backside of the vort and 850 low. Which looking at the short range models probably won't have much effect on us since NC/VA will be in the cold sector. But there is a trend it appears right now on the short range to possibly be a tad wetter than the globals have been showing. I know NWS for the most part going a dusting(west) to 2 inches east. Maybe a good widespread 1-4" snowfall in the makings for later this afternoon into tonight. FWIW. HRRR only goes out to 15 hours but does show .1-.25" along and south of the VA border with a couple pockets of .25"+ along the immediate border and north. Shows potential for flakes for Hickory east and heavier as you go east. But the catch is.. the snow shadow is present from Mt Airy south to the western portions of the Hickory area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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