Disc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I might get an inch if the 0z NAM verifies. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Hi-Res NAM at the SFC says only the mountains and eastern NC get snowcover. Def. a nowcast situation. Great trend though. Hi-res radar looks really good for CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Hi-Res NAM at the SFC says only the mountains and eastern NC get snowcover. Def. a nowcast situation. Great trend though. Hi-res radar looks really good for CLT.It's only a nowcast situation when the stuff is starting to show up on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It's only a nowcast situation when the stuff is starting to show up on radar. Well you know what I mean. We won't know probably until tomorrow how this all shakes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 And the snow hole continues for central NC, congrats everyone else. In all seriousness, this should produce some snow for areas in NC, unfortunately not central NC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Even when something ridiculously improbable happens, it's still bad. We get a MASSIVE shift south right before gametime, but it dries up the precip for southern VA/northern NC. At this rate, you can draw a 'U' from WV, through CLT, down to Myrtle Beach, back up the NC/VA coast, then put a stripe on top going through DCA/BWI/NYC. I love weather in the lee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I get about .02. I'm about 10 miles away from getting .2...give or take. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I think its a good trend really. More people in nc may get snow then confined to central and eastern areas from a longer band on the backside of the 850. Considering the proximity of the h7 and 850 to the Atlantic ocean the qpf amounts could be off considering there is a onshore easterly and north easterly flow wrapping around both the 850 and h7 low. Trends people trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I get about .02. I'm about 10 miles away from getting .2...give or take. Lol. Just have to laugh when you see that, I would love for that to verify it would be so funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Just have to laugh when you see that, I would love for that to verify it would be so funny. It will probably happen too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On the latest Hi-Res NAM, that vort max at 500 mb is so much further south than expected. I like being on the NW side of that. Too bad it doesn't quite go negative tilt. It results in precipitation in the lee of the Apps that has been absent on prior runs. This run portrays a different animal from the typical clipper-type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It will be interesting to see where the GFS places vort as it rolls through. Love to see it pull an 0z nam and roll it through SC border or futher south as oppossed to VA border but I ain't holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Been lurking all day just hadn't posted yet that 500 vort track was sweet and then the surface comes up and I look around the room and say huh?? I don't think it would be an initialization error maybe convective feedback but idk just odd hopefully well wake up tomorrow and the rap will show us some loveliness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesing for a chase Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 What was that on the NAM, an inverted comma head? Must be a lee side trough followed by a jet streak through southern and eastern NC I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncstatered21 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Lurking from Greenville, NC. Liking the NAM simulated reflectivity. That second swath of precipitation looks good. Getting more excited then I should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Based off the meteograms, the 00Z Hi-Res NAM gives these outputs: Hickory: 0.5 inch snow Charlotte: 0.9 inch Greensboro: 0.5 inch Winston-Salem: 0.5 inch Raleigh-Durham: 0.7 inch Asheville: 0.0 inch Wilmington: 0.1 inch I don't know anymore airport codes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Been lurking all day just hadn't posted yet that 500 vort track was sweet and then the surface comes up and I look around the room and say huh?? I don't think it would be an initialization error maybe convective feedback but idk just odd hopefully well wake up tomorrow and the rap will show us some loveliness. As Windre mentioned earlier it splits the vort, taking a weaker parcel up through south central VA, while the main package holds together trekking the NC/SC boarder. Precip responded accordingly, with a min in central NC through south central VA, enhancement from CLT to FAY up towards RWI. Unsure if it is correct, RAP does support the core of the H5 energy coming in a little south and well consolidated, passing near GSP. Doubt the GFS will have a handle given the coarser res, RGEM may hold some clues. Then again, this could just be a feedback issue with the higher res mesos attempting to interpret small scale interactions, which the globals tend to smooth out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Lurking from Greenville, NC. Liking the NAM simulated reflectivity. That second swath of precipitation looks good. Getting more excited then I should. Here are the two panels from the Hi-Res NAM that most affect NC. First, hour 21, and then hour 24: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Wow, that almost looks like a line of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 As Windre mentioned earlier it splits the vort, taking a weaker parcel up through south central VA, while the main package holds together trekking the NC/SC boarder. Precip responded accordingly, with a min in central NC through south central VA, enhancement from CLT to FAY up towards RWI. Unsure if it is correct, RAP does support the core of the H5 energy coming in a little south and well consolidated, passing near GSP. Doubt the GFS will have a handle given the coarser res, RGEM may hold some clues. Then again, this could just be a feedback issue with the higher res mesos attempting to interpret small scale interactions, which the globals tend to smooth out. Latest RAP has a small piece of energy below the main parcel. Looks wetter on simulated radar to the south and west as well. Who knows if that actually verifies but looks like it would be an even better twin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Here are the two panels from the Hi-Res NAM that most affect NC. First, hour 21, and then hour 24: Both of these graphics lack convection off the NC coast which often times disrupts the moisture fetch inland. 850mb shows the moisture transport well this run, ATL slings a good bit back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 By the way, I'm not in the business of making any forecasts or predictions with those posts above. I'm just gathering information and posting for interested parties. Strictly regurgitating model output here, folks. I'm not trying to raise anyone's hopes or crush anyone's dreams. You each get to choose what type of emotional response any of this information may illicit and how heavily you choose to weigh it in your on minds. Throw it out? Fine with me. Hug it? That's okay too. Just be prepared for whatever ride your emotions might take you on. I love the weather! Wow, that almost looks like a line of storms. Yeah, that hour-24 panel really does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 RAP compared to the NAM NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I don't have any science to back me up but i would be really surprised to see 50 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I don't have any science to back me up but i would be really surprised to see 50 tomorrow. High of 44 is forecasted by GSP for the Hickory area. I would imagine that would be relatively early on, too. But, man, it's still quite warm outside. 41.5 IMBY currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncstatered21 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Here are the two panels from the Hi-Res NAM that most affect NC. First, hour 21, and then hour 24: Keep rolling it past 24hr toward 27hr it looks more organized and has higher reflectivity over Greenville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 RGEM looks very similar to the NAM's, 1-2" of snow band running just E-NE of Wake County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yea I agree Burg rap looks nice with the tail on the vort are you able to post the simulated? Just curious what it looks like comparing side to side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 High of 44 is forecasted by GSP for the Hickory area. I would imagine that would be relatively early on, too. But, man, it's still quite warm outside. 41.5 IMBY currently. I'm 37 but way out in the countryside under clear skies. This thing is bringing it's on cold air, but it be would another+ if we don't have to waist our .10 cooling the atmosphere top/down even though it will only take about 5 minutes if you can get steady precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The central NC folks should like Brad P's in-house 4K model for snowfall totals. And, here's a link to an animated GIF of the action tomorrow from the same model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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