superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 We may need an Alaskan chase. Anchorage is the new Seattle. Fairbanks is the new Reno. Okay, back on topic......... 62/21, mostly clear skies. It was a good day for a bike ride. RAH mentions that Winter Weather Advisories will likely be needed for the northern Piedmont and coastal plain eventually, they they are holding off on issuing one for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 And CHS too. But cold weather is better for me than a warm torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So if I'm correct greenville toward bertie will be the sweets spot in nc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Ready for spring. Cold without snow is pointless. Bring me back grilling weather like today everyday. This cold and dry sucks. Dont feel bad guys in NC. KCAE is 70 right now and will end up cold and dry for the next 180 hrs + looking at bufkit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turner Team Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Does anybody think there may be a possibility that this system may nudge south just a tad or is the track pretty much set in stone at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Does anybody think there may be a possibility that this system may nudge south just a tad or is the track pretty much set in stone at this point?Almost always more likely to move north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Does anybody think there may be a possibility that this system may nudge south just a tad or is the track pretty much set in stone at this point? It's moved North on every model run today. It would be great but not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Almost always more likely to move north. Agree.... The possibility of this one moving south now is slim to none. I have learned not to say "never" when it comes to weather, but this time I can say "most likely not". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18z GFS looks a little wetter. Now has a good part of North NC at or greater than .1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 As an aside, if we do manage to pick up a coating of snowfall on Tuesday (obviously a big if), can we make a run at single digits on Tuesday night? It looks like mid-teens as it is without snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I do remember a few years back middle 2000 's we were forecasted to get 6 inches of snow. Van Denton on FOX 8 was showing NAM Model that he said had done well with the western slope snow for our mountains in NC.It showed us with 6in snow. The snow hit south of us in Georgia up to Charlotte got a surprise snow and we got zip nada not even a flake. Just saying it can happen and at last minute change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 As an aside, if we do manage to pick up a coating of snowfall on Tuesday (obviously a big if), can we make a run at single digits on Tuesday night? It looks like mid-teens as it is without snowcover. I think the lows are going to come by cold air advection. If we can get the snow cover to last through Wednesday than that could be the night we really drop off. But even with temps below freezing all day Wednesday, the sun will probably melt much of what does accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I do remember a few years back middle 2000 's we were forecasted to get 6 inches of snow. Van Denton on FOX 8 was showing NAM Model that he said had done well with the western slope snow for our mountains in NC.It showed us with 6in snow. The snow hit south of us in Georgia up to Charlotte got a surprise snow and we got zip nada not even a flake. Just saying it can happen and at last minute change. We have a lot better modeling now than we did in 2000. Those surprise snowstorm are less likely now than they were then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18z GFS looks a little wetter. Now has a good part of North NC at or greater than .1 okay, I'm confused (becuase I hardly know how to interpret these maps) but why am I seeing green in the FAY region but nothing in the forecast? Is it just going to be rain here? How can you tell? What is preventing this system from giving the Fayetteville region even a dusting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I do remember a few years back middle 2000 's we were forecasted to get 6 inches of snow. Van Denton on FOX 8 was showing NAM Model that he said had done well with the western slope snow for our mountains in NC.It showed us with 6in snow. The snow hit south of us in Georgia up to Charlotte got a surprise snow and we got zip nada not even a flake. Just saying it can happen and at last minute change. As CAD said modeling is much better now. The only suprise might be that the banding is hard to predict and could over perform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 18z GFS looks a little wetter. Now has a good part of North NC at or greater than .1 okay, I'm confused (becuase I hardly know how to interpret these maps) but why am I seeing green in the FAY region but nothing in the forecast? Is it just going to be rain here? How can you tell? What is preventing this system from giving the Fayetteville region even a dusting? There's green in the FAY area, but that shade of green corresponds to .01" to .09" of precipitation. FAY is just on the fringe of this area, very close to having no precip at all on this map. One can infer from that that FAY should only get .01" to .03" precipitation, which is barely anything. That small of precip would most likely evaporate before it hits the ground, so that's why forecasters aren't counting on any precip in FAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I still think that I could pull out an inch or two here in the northern Triad. Definitely a little disappointed by how the models trended back north over the day today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 There's green in the FAY area, but that shade of green corresponds to .01" to .09" of precipitation. FAY is just on the fringe of this area, very close to having no precip at all on this map. One can infer from that that FAY should only get .01" to .03" precipitation, which is barely anything. That small of precip would most likely evaporate before it hits the ground, so that's why forecasters aren't counting on any precip in FAY. I'm pretty sure models take into account evaporation. Nevertheless, as you said, it's very little precipitation and it might even be of the liquid variety that far south. At best, it's flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 15z SREF snow plumes for Rocky Mount and Ahoskie, respectvelly. Marginally better than the 9z run, however, the mean is bsically unchanged. Do not like that almost half the mems indicating <1" at RWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm going to go with the Widremann principle: If it can snow in Rocky mount, it will beat all other locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm going to go with the Widremann principle: If it can snow in Rocky mount, it will beat all other locations Seriously, it's the place to be for snow these days. Unfortunately, the people who live there probably can't afford to deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 They just broke that 2 weeks ago, DC got 5". With this storm JI will be above average for seasonal snowfall, if you read there forum you would think it never snows there. This will be JI's 4th 4"+ storm in the past 5 weeks. I am supposed to be in NoVA on Wednesday, if GFS shows this negative tilted I am going up a day earlier. It's never snowing here again, might as well chase to see snow.No they didn't. They picked up 1.9. Someone said it in that thread. JI doesn't live in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 No they didn't. They picked up 1.9. Someone said it in that thread. JI doesn't live in DC. Most of the district did get >2", but DCA is like a slice of hell with all the warmth around the airport, LMAO. -------------- I will worship at the altar of DT if I get 2" as he shows. I think he's just doing his typical deal where he pays no attention to NC and just draws lines, though, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Most of the district did get >2", but DCA is like a slice of hell with all the warmth around the airport, LMAO. My house, 10 miles away from DCA nabbed 4". Its the secret underground government buildings that create the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Most of the district did get >2", but DCA is like a slice of hell with all the warmth around the airport, LMAO. -------------- I will worship at the altar of DT if I get 2" as he shows. I think he's just doing his typical deal where he pays no attention to NC and just draws lines, though, LOL. I really think most of his lines are that way. RAH does support him on the lower end, though, so he's got that going for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 That DT map is another Person county special! Roxboro/ Timberlake 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Impossible to shift a QPF axis centered in NOVA significantly south enough to matter inside 72 hours this time of year (like we saw was taking shape Sat/Sun), and with the advance in computational power and algorithms models run, trillion dollars to a donut type deal. Shifting a secondary max 20-30 miles in the Coastal Plain, doable, but that is if the NAM/RGEM/NMM are to be believed. Like many, I have been suckered into shoving all in on the NAM too many times, not buying it. The 18z RGEM while more subdued, streak originates on the front end best I can tell, rather than what the NAM cooks up, which is definitely on the back. 18z reflect at 30hrs pulled from the RAH page... SN output pulled from the model center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That DT map is another Person county special! Roxboro/ Timberlake 2-4" Too low. Extend that 3-6" further south. Same with the 4-8 2-4 and 1-2. Looking at the models over the last 24-36 hr and the recent runs of how the axis of heaviest moisture sets up I could see the totals on the low side on the southern end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Impossible to shift a QPF axis centered in NOVA significantly south enough to matter inside 72 hours this time of year (like we saw was taking shape Sat/Sun), and with the advance in computational power and algorithms models run, trillion dollars to a donut type deal. Shifting a secondary max 20-30 miles in the Coastal Plain, doable, but that is if the NAM/RGEM/NMM are to be believed. Like many, I have been suckered into shoving all in on the NAM too many times, not buying it. The 18z RGEM while more subdued, streak originates on the front end best I can tell, rather than what the NAM cooks up, which is definitely on the back. 18z reflect at 30hrs pulled from the RAH page... SN output pulled from the model center 18zhighresnam.JPG A lot of ifs involved with this but then when is it not like this.....the NAM is being the NAM, I assume since you never txt me you didn't pull the trigger on the 45-70 huh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 A lot of ifs involved with this but then when is it not like this.....the NAM is being the NAM, I assume since you never txt me you didn't pull the trigger on the 45-70 huh. RWI is the place to be, PGV a fridge job, higher amounts 95 north once you get past RIC, you know the deal. 45-70 Gov't was a miss, hoping I can find that model somewhere a little cheaper down the road, or they run another batch. Based on the EC, half of what falls if any could be RN dominant type, before a quick transition and within an hour the growth zone is smoked top to bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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