Poimen Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 The last few runs of the GFS, and now today's 12Z NAM are increasing the confidence of at least a good chance of snow for eastern NC from the Triangle east. I think this has real potential to lay down an inch or two from I 95 to the coast Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Good run, let's see if the 12z global suite supports 0z Euro @99hrs for ref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 This may finally be SEVA first snow. Looks like a very nice 1-2" event. Temps look very nice as well. Hoping models hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Good profiles from 700 mb to the surface across much of eastern NC. Shows 500-surface temps blow freezing into the SC midlands. Precip looks light, beginning over SC midlands into the Sandhills, along the US 1 corridor, then increasing to the east. As they say, don't pillage the bread and milk aisles, but if things go right, we'd break our snow drought here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Eastern NC snow, I all in. I'll take what ever your smelling!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Eastern NC snow, I all in. I'll take what ever your smelling!!! Per the NAM, very nice sounding in the east Raleigh area at that time. Let's see what the 12z GFS offers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Per the NAM, very nice sounding in the east Raleigh area at that time. Let's see what the 12z GFS offers. Rev Dodd, I hope it makes it to reality, I'm tired of the near misses. We could use a nice 1 to 2 inch dusting all over NC. I'll take it where I can get it!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Rev Dodd, I hope it makes it to reality, I'm tired of the near misses. We could use a nice 1 to 2 inch dusting all over NC. I'll take it where I can get it!!! It's been frustrating to have the cold, but not the moisture. I don't like having to put faith in a clipper like this, either. But heck, it gives us something to watch. 12Z GFS has the moisture a bit further north through 48 hours, BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Pretty decent sounding for even back this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 GFS 12Z keeps the moisture further north and east, may maybe about 100 miles. Not as pleasant for ENC, but the same general setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Euro looks decent for 1/21 by looking at the 4 panel charts. Shows good moisture aloft over KY,OH with the S/W as it drops se and develops a weak low off the coast of NC. Just like the GFS in a way shows another clipper to follow suit which is still 100+ hours out anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 12z Euro @87hrs, overall slightly wetter than 0z, it takes the precip east after this, but <1/10" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Finally some hope for the eastern part of nc.. but still 3 days away so a lot can change.. let's hope for the good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 There have been several NENC and SE VA 4-5 day threats this season. Only for models to fizzle them out day or two before. Not that I'm hugging each run but nam and gfs now have the good stuff develop off shore. Still flurries and snow showers around but not the 1-2" we were seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VBsurf Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 There have been several NENC and SE VA 4-5 day threats this season. Only for models to fizzle them out day or two before. Not that I'm hugging each run but nam and gfs now have the good stuff develop off shore. Still flurries and snow showers around but not the 1-2" we were seeing http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KORF&model=nam&time=2014011818&field=prec Looks ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 There have been several NENC and SE VA 4-5 day threats this season. Only for models to fizzle them out day or two before. Not that I'm hugging each run but nam and gfs now have the good stuff develop off shore. Still flurries and snow showers around but not the 1-2" we were seeing Partially agree, if anything over the past 10 days, there has been a propensity for the slp to form farther SSW than what guidance has showed in the day 4-5 period. 12z globals & ens are not looking so hot for a 1-2" event, one likes to be splitting tenths at this range rather than hundredths, or zero. I do like the moisture return sig showing up of the VA Capes, which could implicate SE VA / NE NC, 12z NAM took meaningful amounts into the Coastal Plain. 36-54 hrs till the parcels in question get sampled over CONUS, still enough time for waffling, one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 To vbsurf: Looks good for Norfolk. My previous comment was more region wide. QPF has come down since last nights runs but still bulls eyes Norfolk, Suffolk, Chesapeake and the beach. 18z clown map shows 1" for them. Last nights 0z gfs run showed a nice 1-2" event for all of SEVA and NENC and the Nam (6z?)showed a nice strip of 1-2" going through Elizabeth city to Hampton roads. Not trying to be negative here. Just looking at the runs. Really hoping for something this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 KILM, always conservative... Monday through Tuesday night/...as of 3 am Sunday...while the short term will be characterized bycontinued middle-level troughing across the east...subtle thicknessincrease in response to flattening trough will help Monday temperaturesrise to above normal...around 60 most locations. This will beaccompanied by weak ridging from the Gulf Coast...and steady SWwinds as the pressure gradient remains pinched. A strong vorticitymaximum will approach Monday night...with a surface cold frontdriven beneath it. This will keep winds elevated Monday night...andthus mins will remain around climatology Monday night...middle 30s across thearea...but around 40 at the beaches. Aforementioned vorticity serves to reinforce what is becoming anever-present 500 mb trough across the east...driving the cold frontthrough the area with cold air advection beginning late Tuesday. This front willstall for a bit on Tuesday...as middle-level flow becomes boundaryparallel...before it is forced southeast by the impulse aloft Tuesdaynight. Thus...maximum temperatures Tuesday...while cooler than Monday...willstill rise into the 50s...with some upper 40s likely in the far northwest.The forecast becomes most interesting Tuesday night as the vorticitydrives some lift into an airmass which is quickly cooling. Thiscreates possible p-type issues Tuesday night...but onceagain...moisture is limited in the profile. Forecast soundings arevery marginal with respect to p-type (and quantitative precipitation forecast in general)...as eventhe most aggressive NAM soundings show saturation only to about-14c...or the extreme bottom of the dendritic growth zone. Temperatures atthe time of strongest middle-level saturation are several degrees above32f...but a dry sub-cloud layer drives surface wet-bulb temperatures intothe 20s. As we have seen...a strong vorticity {EDIT: as WE along the Coastal Zone seen from Ga up through Topsail Island Late Friday night into Saturday Morning with potent T-Storms, **Pictured below**} can act to squeeze out anyresidual column moisture...even the 0.30 inch precipitable water modeled forTuesday night...so precipitation could fall as snow during this time. Ofcourse...cold air chasing the moisture is...never...a promisingsetup for snowfall here...and analysis of upper dynamics actuallyreveals some subsidence beneath the lrq of an upper jet which couldoffset some of the lift associated with the shortwave trough.Top-down methodology produces a small region of r-/S- along I-95 inNorth Carolina...and this matches well with 1000-850mb partialthicknesses approaching critical values for snow. However...aminclined to leave pure liquid.../r-/...in official forecast as somevery light rain or cold drizzle seems the most likely p-type.. .butcannot rule out a few snowflakes mixing in with the rain Tuesdaynight. Little quantitative precipitation forecast is expected...with no snow accumulation.Regardless...strong cold air advection behind this boundary will drive mins Tuesdaynight to well below freezing...low 20s likely inland...and justbelow 30 at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 Burger says the EURO drops .20 qpf across much of NC Tuesday afternoon/night with this event. Hopefully the other guidance will latch on to something similar with today's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The SREF was totally dry in the western piedmont at 3z. Now it's spitting out QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Also, it's giving KCLT a 50/50 chance at 0.05 or more and about a 25% chance of .25 or more at hour 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Wow, there's a couple of SREF members that go nuts on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I'm not sure what changed between 3z and 9z. I'm hoping it's sniffing something out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Looks like a .15 maximum in WNC close to HKY on the SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I'm not sure what changed between 3z and 9z. I'm hoping it's sniffing something out. It is wet. Really a good snow fall from N GA, N SC, All of NC. Max 3 hr maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 9z ARW suite went nuts as QC mentioned, like slp forming over the upstate tracking ene and exiting near the crystal coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Just playing negative nancy, but tomorrow is going to be in the 60s outside the mtns and our Tuesday high is low 50s, the timing on this is Tuesday night? All that moisture before the cold would just be turrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Just playing negative nancy, but tomorrow is going to be in the 60s outside the mtns and our Tuesday high is low 50s, the timing on this is Tuesday night? All that moisture before the cold would just be terrible Its a strange setup and not one that we usually see, it takes this type of setup to get statewide snow in NC, and its only happened a few times before, that everywhere in the state has recorded at least 1". Mar 1980 ( obviously this was a different animal all together than what is modeled) and Jan 2003 ( awesome storm for the coast and mts the folks in the middle got shafted but still had 1"+) are the only two times off the top of my head that we have seen that....the low here Tues night is suppose to be 21 andthe point and click isn't exactly earth shattering but its liable to change if the models keep up with this low tracking along the NC/SC border.... Tuesday Night A slight chance of rain and snow showers before 11pm, then a slight chance of snow showers between 11pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Does it look like FAY will finally get some snow with this system? We really need some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 There was once I remember in 02 or 03 that we had a clipperish system that came through here and we picked up 2-3 inches and it started with temps around 40 and was in upper 20s when it stopped and around Gaffney, they got 8-9 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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