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Jan. 18th "Threat" Observations


NorEastermass128

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Here's the smoking gun for today's mesolow/convection S+ in NW CT. Here's the 3-hour NAM BUFKIT sounding valid at 15z today. Lapse rates nearly 8c/km from 600-800mb and saturated right through the snow growth zone. Vigorous upright convection favored.

 

Why this developed into a mesolow (almost an MCV) I don't know. That brought this from a 3"-6" kinda deal into a 6"-10" kind of deal with some enhanced lift thanks to a frontogenetical circulation on the northwest side.

 

Wow. 

 

 

Thats a great image...you'll very often get "surprises" when you have that type of lapse rate, saturated snow growth region and a just any form of lift to get the ball rolling in that unstable column. The snow growth was spectacular today...even with the aggregates, you could see that they were well formed dendrites clumped together.

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Thats a great image...you'll very often get "surprises" when you have that type of lapse rate, saturated snow growth region and a just any form of lift to get the ball rolling in that unstable column. The snow growth was spectacular today...even with the aggregates, you could see that they were well formed dendrites clumped together.

 

Yup... it's really interesting stuff. What sucks is that the soundings looked similar overhead here earlier today and we barely managed a trace but just like summer convection even if you have all the ingredients the actual coverage can be a bit limited!

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Yup... it's really interesting stuff. What sucks is that the soundings looked similar overhead here earlier today and we barely managed a trace but just like summer convection even if you have all the ingredients the actual coverage can be a bit limited!

 

 

Yeah that is the toughest thing about instability troughs...you cant pinpoint exactly where the jackpots and screwzones are. Sometimes you can get a rough outline near the heart of it (like today it looked decent for C/E MA, SE NH)...but on the periphery it can be a total crapshoot. I wonder if the terrain helped in NW CT. Sometimes that is all it takes. A little light upslope flow to get the dominos to start dropping.

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Yeah that is the toughest thing about instability troughs...you cant pinpoint exactly where the jackpots and screwzones are. Sometimes you can get a rough outline near the heart of it (like today it looked decent for C/E MA, SE NH)...but on the periphery it can be a total crapshoot. I wonder if the terrain helped in NW CT. Sometimes that is all it takes. A little light upslope flow to get the dominos to start dropping.

 

I don't think it was terrain/upslope - it seems like it was the fact that the convection held in tact from PA and NJ and never fizzled. In fact it strengthened a bit thanks to some better moisture transport closer to the ocean? 

 

Models had the convection falling apart and all the lift going nuts over eastern areas. 

 

Some decent totals in NJ/SE NY... plus all the thunder reports near NYC and 1/2" hail in C NJ lol.

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