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Mid to late Jan cold talk


Ian

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Absolutely. I lived in the DC area for a few years back in the 1990s. Dulles is a "radiator" and there can be some very large differences in low temperatures.

 

It has a lot going against it for sure. Expansive development in a 10-15 mile radius. Basically sea level on the south side. River hurts too at times unless it's frozen which is rare. Much of NW dc is definitely a notable microclimate. DCA is probably in the worst location possible for climate data. 

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It has a lot going against it for sure. Expansive development in a 10-15 mile radius. Basically sea level on the south side. River hurts too at times unless it's frozen which is rare. Much of NW dc is definitely a notable microclimate. DCA is probably in the worst location possible for climate data. 

 

I agree with you. Unfortunately, it is what it is.

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Some historical perspective on the bouts of severe cold that have occurred this winter:

 

Single Digit Lows:

Baltimore: 7 (most since winter 1993-94 when there were 8)

Washington, DC (DCA): 2 (most since winter 1995-96 when there were 2)

 

High temperatures < 20°:

Baltimore: 2 (most since winter 1993-94 when there were 4)

Washington, DC (DCA): 1 (most since winter 2008-09 when there was 1)

 

Given the guidance, both cities should add to their tallies before the month is finished. If Baltimore can add just 2 more single digit low temperatures (very likely), that city would have its most such minimum temperatures since 1981-82 when there were 10.

 

Sterling (IAD) has had its first subzero low since 2/6/1996. Winter 1995-96 saw 3 such low temperatures. IAD has a chance to add to its figure this month, as well.

 

Overall, at least in terms of severe cold, winter 2013-14 is becoming one of the special winters.

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Interesting that yesterday tied the biggest negative temp departure of the month at all 3 airports:

-23F at BWI and AID

-22F at DCA 

Unrounded at least. I didn't check the others but DCA was .5 warmer than Jan 7 yday on avg. 

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MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-
MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...
CHARLOTTESVILLE...WASHINGTON...LEESBURG...WARRENTON
410 PM EST THU JAN 23 2014

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS
EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY.

* WIND CHILL...AROUND 5 BELOW ZERO.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* IMPACTS...LOW WIND CHILLS MAY LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR FROST
  BITE ON EXPOSED SKIN.

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Tomorrow morning should be my ninth single-digit or lower morning this month. The 8th at MRB. If this keeps up, we may make a run at some historic months' totals for this stat.

12/89 had 12 nights that low. So did 1/77. And 2/34. The record is from Dec 1960, which had 15, which is pretty amazing.

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Tomorrow morning should be my ninth single-digit or lower morning this month. The 8th at MRB. If this keeps up, we may make a run at some historic months' totals for this stat.

12/89 had 12 nights that low. So did 1/77. And 2/34. The record is from Dec 1960, which had 15, which is pretty amazing.

I'd say 5 more are a lock. Maybe more.

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Posted for posterity from LWX Climate section:

 

.CLIMATE...
THIS MRNG`S LOW TEMPS:

IAD -2 DCA 12 BWI 5 HGR 4 MRB -4 CHO 4

TEMPS OF BELOW ZERO WERE RECORDED AT SEVERAL CLIMATE SITES THIS
MRNG.

AT DULLES...THE MIN TEMP OF -2F WAS THE COLDEST TEMP IN 18 YEARS
AND THE FIRST SUB-ZERO TEMP SINCE IT WAS 7 FEB 1996 WHEN THE MIN
TEMP WAS -1F. THE MIN TEMP THE TWO DAYS PRECEDING WERE -10F ON 5
FEB 1996 AND -9F ON 6 FEB 1996.

AT MARTINSBURG...THE MIN TEMP OF -4F WAS THE FIRST SUB-ZERO TEMP AND
THE COLDEST TEMP IN 11 YEARS...WHEN IT WAS -6F ON 18 JAN 2003.

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I may write an article titled get your **** together DOT

Once again, I refer to this marvelously passive-aggressive part of Loudoun County Public Schools' announcement of closing from yesterday:

 

"We are hopeful that Thursday and Friday will give the Virginia Department of Transportation, homeowners associations and private citizens the opportunity they need to clear roads and sidewalks so that students may safely return to school."

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Once again, I refer to this marvelously passive-aggressive part of Loudoun County Public Schools' announcement of closing from yesterday:

 

"We are hopeful that Thursday and Friday will give the Virginia Department of Transportation, homeowners associations and private citizens the opportunity they need to clear roads and sidewalks so that students may safely return to school."

 

While the snow has not yet reached special status I think the cold this winter is a big enough aberration from the norm of late that perhaps we're seeing magnified impacts.  Sure it hasn't been wall to wall, but we're going to all end up in a winter we haven't seen in quite a long time with regard to days in the single digits or lower, teens for highs, etc etc. 

 

Part of the problem around here is a lot of storms if you don't clean up after things are fine within a few days, especially lately. People forgot how to deal with real winter. 

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While the snow has not yet reached special status I think the cold this winter is a big enough aberration from the norm of late that perhaps we're seeing magnified impacts.  Sure it hasn't been wall to wall, but we're going to all end up in a winter we haven't seen in quite a long time with regard to days in the single digits or lower, teens for highs, etc etc. 

 

Part of the problem around here is a lot of storms if you don't clean up after things are fine within a few days, especially lately. People forgot how to deal with real winter. 

So people don't complain that much about multi-day shut-downs after blizzards in general.... 1/96, PDII, the 09/10 storms, etc. 

There are two recent winter storms that caused multi-day shut-downs that also didn't generate much complaint because we all experienced the out-sized aftermath:

In 2/13-14/07, it was the solid immovable block of ice in parking lots and sidewalks and neighborhood roads after the epic sleet storm. Special equipment had to be brought in to chip it away in school parking lots, etc. Most area schools went from an early dismissal Tuesday to closing through Friday. 

In 1/26/11, it was the massive power outages that took up to a week to fix. Many area schools were closed Wednesday through Friday. 

 

Maybe this storm is like a lesser version of the 2/07 experience for some counties? That would match what you are saying-- that if you don't clear snow soon enough during a cold stretch, it can compact down to icy patches. 

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