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Mid to late Jan cold talk


Ian

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I am pretty sure most of us will go below zero tonight

Temps may be a little colder than expected so far but this is a classic nosedive fast then stall type of deal especially if clouds increase as they are supposed to. Looking at wunder the really cold is in pockets.. Maybe enhances by less wind etc? I see a lot of 10-15 in addition to the cold pockets.
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Temps may be a little colder than expected so far but this is a classic nosedive fast then stall type of deal especially if clouds increase as they are supposed to. Looking at wunder the really cold is in pockets.. Maybe enhances by less wind etc? I see a lot of 10-15 in addition to the cold pockets.

^^^^

This. I've been locked at 15 for last 3 hours after I clouded over. Most sites down here have cloudy skies and have locked at current temp for past several hours too.

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Temps may be a little colder than expected so far but this is a classic nosedive fast then stall type of deal especially if clouds increase as they are supposed to. Looking at wunder the really cold is in pockets.. Maybe enhances by less wind etc? I see a lot of 10-15 in addition to the cold pockets.

I bounced up to 10 from 9 several times last hour. Back to 9 now. Odd temp behavior early on a clear calm night.

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I bounced up to 10 from 9 several times last hour. Back to 9 now. Odd temp behavior early on a clear calm night.

Clouds steaming in good now. Some places have risen a few though it could also be mixing. Lots of tricky little temp plays on a night like this but MOS suggests either steady or slow thru the night after initial drop so my guess is the HRRR is huffing paint.
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Clouds steaming in good now. Some places have risen a few though it could also be mixing. Lots of tricky little temp plays on a night like this but MOS suggests either steady or slow thru the night after initial drop so my guess is the HRRR is huffing paint.

I don't know temp stuff nearly as well as you do and even I know the hrrr is batcrap crayzee. My wag for the yard tonight is 4 or so. That might be a stretch too

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Clouds steaming in good now. Some places have risen a few though it could also be mixing. Lots of tricky little temp plays on a night like this but MOS suggests either steady or slow thru the night after initial drop so my guess is the HRRR is huffing paint.

computers huff ink not paint....ink

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I don't know temp stuff nearly as well as you do and even I know the hrrr is batcrap crayzee. My wag for the yard tonight is 4 or so. That might be a stretch too

Pretty sure HRRR did something similar last time we had snowcover. Like it just kept the initial drop rate going too long or something. Clouds are going to be thick for a while.. Maybe some breaks pre dawn. I don't know the region all that well but you could probably find the little depressions etc by circling the coldest spots. Both DCA and IAD went up one last ob.
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Yeah HRRR is doing somthing wierd,

 

Anyway, Ocean City MD airport is at 2°F this hour.

Nice. They still have some clear time.. maybe an hour or two.  Beach (not sure where obs are from) plus snow plus clear is some good cold maximization. 

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