Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I though regression to the mean didn't exist? lolWell that's not what it is by getting screwed on one snowfall. I still dont think that's a valid concept. If it continues the rest of the winter then perhaps I'll have to eat those words. Norfolk Ct getting 10 inches shows it was just luck/ unlucky today. If you got under a band you got buried. Such is the nature of mesoscale features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I bet I lose most of this the next 2 days (Only a few inches attm). But I still had a tiny amount earlier too. Not a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Not a chance.Between compaction, sublimation I bet it shrinks by more than 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Well that's not what it is by getting screwed on one snowfall. I still dont think that's a valid concept. If it continues the rest of the winter then perhaps I'll have to eat those words. Norfolk Ct getting 10 inches shows it was just luck/ unlucky today. If you got under a band you got buried. Such is the nature of mesoscale features. I think you miss the idea of what it means. Your long term average is near 60". You have been exceeding that and lucking out with mesoscale banding. So, when you average so much more than your long term average, guess what? You are due for some years that are not so lackluster. That is called regressing. Now this year is still young so I'm not saying this is the year....but I'm just telling you what it means. Remember when I said I had no business getting 85" in '10-'11 when lows were tracking over the canal? Well the 18 months following that sure made it even out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Well that's not what it is by getting screwed on one snowfall. I still dont think that's a valid concept. If it continues the rest of the winter then perhaps I'll have to eat those words. Norfolk Ct getting 10 inches shows it was just luck/ unlucky today. If you got under a band you got buried. Such is the nature of mesoscale features. You will be fine. Odds of you getting another 29" event are slim. But it will snow again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Between compaction, sublimation I bet it shrinks by more than 50%. How bout if you lose , you have to cover your yard in ice melt, and lose ur pack anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Between compaction, sublimation I bet it shrinks by more than 50%. You're still going to have snow OTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Between compaction, sublimation I bet it shrinks by more than 50%. you won't go from like 4" to 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 You're still going to have snow OTG.I agree. Just technically will lose most (50%) of the depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 you won't go from like 4" to 1" 4" to 1.999999". Lol. Pretty poofy stuff. It is stuck to the underside of branches somehow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 How bout if you lose , you have to cover your yard in ice melt, and lose ur pack anywayMy septic tank will be bare by Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 How bout if you lose , you have to cover your yard in ice melt, and lose ur pack anyway lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 You will be fine. Odds of you getting another 29" event are slim. But it will snow againMy thinking is ill end up with 65-70 inches this winter. No big storms but a lot of dimes, nickels and maybe a quarter or 2. Coin storms but no paper money this year. The hardest part for me is I have nothing to look forward to snow wise for the next 7+ days. Usually we have something to look forward to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 you won't go from like 4" to 1" ORH was just far enough east. How much did you get?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 4" to 1.999999". Lol. Pretty poofy stuff. It is stuck to the underside of branches somehow 4" of cement won't compact much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 ORH was just far enough east. How much did you get?? About 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 You will be fine. Odds of you getting another 29" event are slim. But it will snow againThats scooters lineHe comforted powderfreak with it a week ago Powderfreak is looking up snow futility records lol, its like the scene in wedding crashers when Vince Vaughn stops by and sees Owen Wilson reading books like "don't jump" and other depressing things. Powder freak is looking thru old snow albums, looking at 240hr plus model runs (w more enthusiasm), i can see him presenting jb tweets and 300hr gfs runs at the mid day mountain ops meetings in about 5 more days (while people close to him encourage him to "take a vaca" , soon he will be shifting back and forth from (weirdly) hoping for the futility record to wondering how they will make up ground in Feb. when it rains it pours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 My thinking is ill end up with 65-70 inches this winter. No big storms but a lot of dimes, nickels and maybe a quarter or 2. Coin storms but no paper money this year. The hardest part for me is I have nothing to look forward to snow wise for the next 7+ days. Usually we have something to look forward to I'd agree. My call is 85-95" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 About 6 inches You have just about caught me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Thats scooters line He comforted powderfreak with it a week ago Powderfreak is looking up snow futility records lol, its like the scene in wedding crashers when Vince Vaughn stops by and sees Owen Wilson reading books like "don't jump" and other depressing things. Powder freak is looking thru old snow albums, giving himself pep talks, looking at 240hr plus model runs (w more enthusiasm), i can see him presenting jb tweets and 300hr gfs runs at the mid day mountain ops meetings in about 5 more days, violently shifting back from hoping for the futility record to wondering how they will make up ground in Feb. He will be fine. My words to him were for the winter. I stand by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The ski areas outside of reindeer sweater world aren't bad at all. Oh well. It's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 ORH had also had an extra 2-3 hrs with that I-90 band. That's like my personal band I had for hours earlier this month. Private weenie CJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I'm guessing between 45-50 inches here to finish the season. At 23 now. Obviously if we get a big storm if 12+ thrown in, it could be higher. I'm leaning right about average a little above for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Well that's not what it is by getting screwed on one snowfall. I still dont think that's a valid concept. If it continues the rest of the winter then perhaps I'll have to eat those words. Norfolk Ct getting 10 inches shows it was just luck/ unlucky today. If you got under a band you got buried. Such is the nature of mesoscale features. You're missing the forest through the trees. It was just luck that you have gotten what you have over the past few seasons. Regression accounts for that.....your avg snowfall is akin to a batters BBIP....you use it as a predictor of future trends in BA. BA and seasonal snowfall have an element of luck involved, which is why you look to see how they compare relative to your BBIP avg, and mean seasonal snowfall. Think of mean annual snowfall as a peripheral snowfall stat, accounting for luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Mean annual snowfall averages out all of those mesoscale features of which you speak....it encompasses a larger, more statistically significant sample size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 You're missing the forest through the trees. It was just luck that you have gotten what you have over the past few seasons. Regression accounts for that.....your avg snowfall is akin to a batters BBIP....you use it as a predictor of future trends in BA. BA and seasonal snowfall have an element of luck involved, which is why you look to see how they compare relative to your BBIP avg, and mean seasonal snowfall. Think of mean annual snowfall as a peripheral snowfall stat, accounting for luck. Lol. Sabremetrics don't work in weather. I don't agree with regression. I believe in the law of averages . Mother Nature gave this area several monster storms because we hadn't seen any like it in like 30+ years . Maybe we still are "due" a few more before it ends for another period of years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Meanwhile we'll get to enjoy Cape Cod, Ma get buried over the next week and James posting about it and some Chesapeake Bay streamers in Virginia as we wonder what else the Euro can F up past day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Lol. Sabremetrics don't work in weather. I don't agree with regression. I believe in the law of averages . Mother Nature gave this area several monster storms because we hadn't seen any like it in like 30+ years . Maybe we still are "due" a few more before it ends for another period of years Statistical analysis is relevant anywhere numbers are involved....snow is "measured". You said you were "due" for a bad stretch....why is that??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Meanwhile we'll get to enjoy Cape Cod, Ma get buried over the next week and James posting about it and some Chesapeake Bay streamers in Virginia as we wonder what else the Euro can F up past day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Lol. Sabremetrics don't work in weather. I don't agree with regression. I believe in the law of averages . Mother Nature gave this area several monster storms because we hadn't seen any like it in like 30+ years . Maybe we still are "due" a few more before it ends for another period of years You are answering your own questions. Mother Nature went overboard and she is now rear ending you. Ray's analogy makes sense. I think you somehow think we are saying mother nature knows what you should average. That's not we are saying. Your long term average near 60" is just that. If your 4yr avg or whatever is 80 well guess what....you are due for some meh years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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