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January 2014 Pattern Discussion Part II


Typhoon Tip

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EURO looked better for Cape Cod and Islands, as well as the NAM and UKMET models. GFS is becoming more of an outlier in the going west sweepstakes. Right now I would say a coating at best for the Cape while we mainly bask in sunlit cirrus clouds.

Would like to see the 18z. Rgem nam gfs come west and deliver a solid 1-3/2-4 for the cape. Trend will either stop/flip in this next run or the models won't catch up to the bitter end. Feels like it wants to keep coming west but we will see. Euro has steadily marched nw

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Yeah the Northwest trend hasn't stopped in regards to the EURO, so my best guess is where the EURO stops trending west will be the final outcome, it did well with the last storm within 24 hours.

I've not followed today much at all but I think gfs had a blob of moisture over NMA into SNH. Was that a bust? Half thinking it's been shunting everything too Far East on the back of features not as modeled.
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Wow, the 12z Euro moved so far NW from the 0z it's almost suspicious to me.  Either the models are really blowing chunks on this one or we saw a few chunks blown this run.    That's like a 500 mile shift in one run with the features/.1" line as a simple guide.

We'll see these next 8 hours, but I agree with Coastalwx that we'll need to see the .1 push back into SE MA for much to fall on the Cape because some is going to get eaten by the dry monster.

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Wow, the 12z Euro moved so far NW from the 0z it's almost suspicious to me.  Either the models are really blowing chunks on this one or we saw a few chunks blown this run.    That's like a 500 mile shift in one run with the features/.1" line as a simple guide.

We'll see these next 8 hours, but I agree with Coastalwx that we'll need to see the .1 push back into SE MA for much to fall on the Cape because some is going to get eaten by the dry monster.

 

Yeah one thing to note is that if the SREFs and EURO are trending westward, then we need to keep an eye out for another trend west on the American models.

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You lost all that snow? Geez... high ratio fluff... we need a paster

A lot of it. This place is horrible for snowpack. But, down the street has snow cover. Its my hill, it torches on a south wind. No protection. I'll just go home the longer way through the glen so it looks like winter lol.

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I don't consider the SREFs trending west a good thing.  I value the SREF's one step below  the Farmers Almanac for this date. 

 

Lol, true true, but its in sync with the EURO, which means there is some credence to the SREFs.  Need the EURO to swing westward another 50-100 miles, not out of this world given that we are 48 hours out.

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KTAN on board with the idea of keeping at least one eye on it:

 

"TUESDAY NIGHT...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED UPSTREAM TROF
AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. OCEAN STORM
STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL SE OF THE BENCHMARK BUT IT IS NOW
CLOSER AND THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT NW EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD WILL
CLIP AT LEAST THE CAPE/ISLANDS. THERE IS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE OF
AT LEAST 0.10" QPF REACHING ACK AND NAM/ECMWF INDICATE 0.25" UP TO
ACK AND 0.10" UP TO THE CANAL. GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE 50% PROB OF
0.25" TO ACK. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN AN ADVISORY SNOWFALL
FOR ACK WITH MINOR ACCUM TO THE CANAL AND POSSIBLY FAR SE MA AND
COASTAL RI ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN
. NAM IS INDICATING GOOD
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND LIFT THROUGH THE FAVORABLE SNOW GROWTH
REGION ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO
THE PRECIP SO IT COULD REMAIN DRY JUST INLAND FROM THE CANAL...BUT
ANY SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL TO MORE SNOW OR
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW.

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Through Jan 27

ORH at -1.4F

PVD at -1.6F

BDL at -1.1F

BOX at -1.1F

 

Today will drop those a hair, as will Weds and Thurs a tiny bit. Friday look close to normal.

 

3 months in a row looks to be a lock. 

BOX? BOS I guess. Will drop more than a hair today and tomorrow. Should finish not far off from -2.

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