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January 2014 Pattern Discussion Part II


Typhoon Tip

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Where is the science basis on the north trends? Please provide analysis

 

12z NAM N&W of earlier runs

12z RGEM N&W of 0z

12z GGEM N&W of 0z

12z UKMET

 

All bring the .1 or so line right about over the Cape with ACK being closest to the more serious stuff.  Most of those models made more than a modest shift north this run.  The .5 line isn't that far offshore, we're talking another 50 or so miles to push it over the islands and put most of the Cape and parts of coastal PYM and Bristol into a 1-3" event.

We did 18 pages for a flurry for 95% of us the other day, 8 posts about this shouldn't break the bank.

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Maybe an inch to Phil? I don't see this as anything more than flurries or a coating near the canal.

 

need another good bump at 18z and 0z to make this worth following even for me.  As it is now despite the QPF bumping up to raw excitement levels of .01 to .1....on a NW wind it'd be dry.

 

IMO this next run it'll either flop back west or we'll see it gradually fade east to nothingness even on ACK.  Be curious to see if the Euro ticked west.

 

GFS was the only model that didn't come at least a little west.

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need another good bump at 18z and 0z to make this worth following even for me.  As it is now despite the QPF bumping up to raw excitement levels of .01 to .1....on a NW wind it'd be dry.

 

IMO this next run it'll either flop back west or we'll see it gradually fade east to nothingness even on ACK.  Be curious to see if the Euro ticked west.

 

GFS was the only model that didn't come at least a little west.

 

Euro looks like it gives you about an inch or so with more on the Cape. I think you want a bump west more because the western edges of these strung out systems can get chewed up by drier air. Part of my reason for this having trouble west of the Cape...and also a tick east would have you enjoying cirrus.

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Euro looks like it gives you about an inch or so with more on the Cape. I think you want a bump west more because the western edges of these strung out systems can get chewed up by drier air. Part of my reason for this having trouble west of the Cape...and also a tick east would have you enjoying cirrus.

 

Yep...good news on the Euro though.  GFS had a burp I think in not coming west with everyone else.  Just have that hunch about this one, hopeful for a 1-3" deal at least.

 

Meanwhile we torch.  Leon wincing.  I'm actually surprised at how warm it got today.  Will be a race at midnight tonight to see if we can sneak enough under the normal low of 22 to avoid the positive departure today.

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