Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The weenie ism on Twitter for mid week have reached new levels. I mean Prince James isn't even talking about it on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 For a week now some of the models and some of the ensembles are suggesting the possibility of a storm coming up the coast. I am still very undecided on this one, but if the winds at 500 back just a little more we would get a storm. So at this time it needs to be watch. Tomorrow runs should start to show it like the last storm, it was pronged to Far East at first. Time will tell. Posted in my subforum Lets back dem 500's up Some gefs members show a neggy tilt to trough . Should be fun down south , as those se forum weenies are in a frenzy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 The weenie ism on Twitter for mid week have reached new levels. I mean Prince James isn't even talking about it on here? For New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We would need to dig that troff to Miami for up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 That was a rather large shift lol. Running out if time, and still a ways to go, but we will see It's Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I don't really see anything midweek, but that is just me. I see what the GEFS is doing compared to the Euro....but there is very little room for error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It's Sunday. Lot of improvement needed still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I just saw the individual members. Wow, very surprised. I still think this is a no-go for many....but I guess we'll find out what 00z does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Actually, I think I see what is going on. The euro takes this s/w off the CA coast and buries it over the Baja. This causes the heights to be a bit higher over the SE and flow more progressive. The GFS ejects the s/w east instead. It then sort of phases with the s/w moving through the deep south at hr 66. Those are huge differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Actually, I think I see what is going on. The euro takes this s/w off the CA coast and buries it over the Baja. This causes the heights to be a bit higher over the SE and flow more progressive. The GFS ejects the s/w east instead. It then sort of phases with the s/w moving through the deep south at hr 66. Those are huge differences. Only the NCEP models are phasing it in. Euro, GGEM, Ukie, and JMA all "bury" it like you said. I guess if you're going to hope that the Euro is wrong at H5 at this time range that it's wrt energy in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Only the NCEP models are phasing it in. Euro, GGEM, Ukie, and JMA all "bury" it like you said. I guess if you're going to hope that the Euro is wrong at H5 at this time range that it's wrt energy in the SW. Yeah it's interesting. There is definitely spread on the EC ensembles too. I'm still in the "nothing to see here" camp, but I'll defitnely watch what 00z does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Yeah it's interesting. There is definitely spread on the EC ensembles too. I'm still in the "nothing to see here" camp, but I'll defitnely watch what 00z does. If it gives anything to New England, would it be ACK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Big shift NW on the 21z SREF's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 just about to post the same thing actually a huge jump Big shift NW on the 21z SREF's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If it gives anything to New England, would it be ACK? Well the GEFS have snow to BOS, but probably because of a few amped up members. ACK would probably have the best shot obviously. Again, I'm not really buying it, but weird stuff has gone on lately with sneak snow events, so I'll see what 00z does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Big shift NW on the 21z SREF's I'm not letting them burn me again after the other day. Even wrt trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm not letting them burn me again after the other day. Even wrt trends. I haven't really looked at them all year...outside of a quick glance maybe and an eye roll. They are useless right now. They perform ok in heavy precip events...that's about it these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Probably another one of those situations in a progressive pattern where the ncep suite over amps/overcorrects to a western solution in the 60-84 hour range while the ecmwf ticks a little bit closer but never really shows a big jump in one run..and ends up closer to the final solution. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm not letting them burn me again after the other day. Even wrt trends. Im still not done shoveling my 10"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 It's a shame how useless the SREFS are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I haven't really looked at them all year...outside of a quick glance maybe and an eye roll. They are useless right now. They perform ok in heavy precip events...that's about it these days. They seemed better a year or 2 ago... why were they messed around with so much? Adding those members or whatever seems like it made them useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 For now I am locking in 0"-0" for the N ORH area... lollis to 0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 They seemed better a year or 2 ago... why were they messed around with so much? Adding those members or whatever seems like it made them useless They perform better in other areas to increase their score...but coastal cyclogenesis has seemed to degrade quite a bit on them. Kind of like how the NAM performs way better with convection these days but it too has become hard to trust in coastal cyclogenesis situations. There's a price to pay for increased performance in certain areas...unfortunately for us, the parts that seem to suffer are very important to our region in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think there would be very little complaints about snow on this board if the what the srefs showed all winter produced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 They perform better in other areas to increase their score...but coastal cyclogenesis has seemed to degrade quite a bit on them. Kind of like how the NAM performs way better with convection these days but it too has become hard to trust in coastal cyclogenesis situations. There's a price to pay for increased performance in certain areas...unfortunately for us, the parts that seem to suffer are very important to our way of life. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think there would be very little complaints about snow on this board if the what the srefs showed all winter produced I used to get sorta excited when Ryan (weatherMA) or Bob used to post them... I guess they can signal a bit of a flurry or 2, but I think I put more stock in the DGEX (haven't seen that in a year or so) than the SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I used to get sorta excited when Ryan (weatherMA) or Bob used to post them... I guess they can signal a bit of a flurry or 2, but I think I put more stock in the DGEX (haven't seen that in a year or so) than the SREFs They had more skill in winter storms IMHO a few years ago, like 2010-2011. When they had the old ETA/RSM members. They really performed strongly in the Jan 12, 2011 storm and also in the Oct 2011 snowbomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 They had more skill in winter storms IMHO a few years ago, like 2010-2011. When they had the old ETA/RSM members. They really performed strongly in the Jan 12, 2011 storm and also in the Oct 2011 snowbomb. We used to talk about the SREFS all the time during winter events back on WWBB and Eastern...they were hugely important to confidence in a forecast. Now we'll go entire storms with no mention of them. It is a shame how useless they've become. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 We used to talk about the SREFS all the time during winter events back on WWBB and Eastern...they were hugely important to confidence in a forecast. Now we'll go entire storms with no mention of them. It is a shame how useless they've become. Yeah they were pretty good inside of 48h years ago...but then they upgraded them and for a few years (like between 2009-2011) they were pretty darn skillful even at like 60-72 hours out...but then they "Upgraded" them again and since then, its been a trainwreck for winter storms up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 250 people right now in a thread in the south east forum congrats to them they dont have good storms often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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