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January 2014 Pattern Discussion Part II


Typhoon Tip

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Yes, I complain too much.

No argument, but the frustration was warranted.

 

I don't think you get any more or less frustrated than I do....the only difference is you live in an area that SHOULD get snow and I live in an area where I consider any sizeable storm a bonus. 

 

There's some much active weather coming in a week or so.  Hopefully we see a fringe on Wed-Fri down this way or better, and then the action starts in earnest that following week. 

 

I think my turn at the wheel of the snow bus is about done, and after this week you, Will or maybe Dendrite will be behind the wheel.

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Gettin kinda desperate in ALB.  Nothing since Jan 2 and I was out of town for that one.  Snowpack is <1" and I don't see anything on the horizon.  Heating bill is through the roof.  Somebody please restart the mojo.

I was out of town too. Haven't witnessed a decent event since the 12/15 event. Long stretch of meh here. Missing almost every KU the last few seasons hasn't helped with the snow mood. On a brighter note skied in the Berkshires yesterday in 4" of powder.

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Yeah...and d10 timing differences wash out the peak warmth in the mean, but there's many members that transition to rainers. There's a hint of secondary redevelopment in the GOME on the mean. No need to discuss details at this point though.

When its day 6 or < and warmer then it would prob be a topic worthy of concern

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80's in Albany weren't too bad. Averaged 60". 88-89 was awful, but lots of good years. Jan 87 was epic"....30" snow pack. It's amazing how hard it is for everyone in the northeast to cash in at the same time.

Well I guess it was "less bad" there. BGM was below their long-term average for snowfall every season from 78-79 through 91-92.

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80's in Albany weren't too bad. Averaged 60". 88-89 was awful, but lots of good years. Jan 87 was epic"....30" snow pack. It's amazing how hard it is for everyone in the northeast to cash in at the same time.

 

Jan '87 wasn't bad down here too.  It's my second coldest January behind 1994 and 3rd snowiest since 1985.  We had about 20" on the ground too which is decent for us.  The mid-80s had some lousy winters punctuated by some that weren't too bad.  Since '93 we've had mostly good winters which I think is why some of the younger crowd doesn't know how to deal with lousy winters.

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Jan '87 wasn't bad down here too.  It's my second coldest January behind 1994 and 3rd snowiest since 1985.  We had about 20" on the ground too which is decent for us.  The mid-80s had some lousy winters punctuated by some that weren't too bad.  Since '93 we've had mostly good winters which I think is why some of the younger crowd doesn't know how to deal with lousy winters.

We'll I came to Albany in the fall of 85 and my first 3 winters here were 63",81", 77"...all above normal. Other big seasons were 81-82 with 97.1" and 82-83 with 75". Our average back then was 63". We had 6 winters above average and 4 below.

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Jan '87 was epic in ORH with 46.8" of snow and 5 storms exceeding 6" with two of them double digits...but that was the exception rather than the rule of the 1980s.

 

 

Overall it was a putrid decade for snowfall and large storms. It is the only decade on record that ORH failed to get a 18"+ snowstorm. They narrowly missed a few times with 16" back to back in Feb 1983 dual storms, 17" in March 29-30, 1984 storm and 17" in the April 1987 storm.

 

3 of the 10 seasons had above average snowfall (1981-1982, 1983-1984, and 1986-1987).  '87-'88 and '82-'83 were near normal while the other 5 were well below normal including two top 10 least snowiest winters. Yuck on that distribution curve.

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Jan '87 was epic in ORH with 46.8" of snow and 5 storms exceeding 6" with two of them double digits...but that was the exception rather than the rule of the 1980s.

 

 

Overall it was a putrid decade for snowfall and large storms. It is the only decade on record that ORH failed to get a 18"+ snowstorm. They narrowly missed a few times with 16" back to back in Feb 1983 dual storms, 17" in March 29-30, 1984 storm and 17" in the April 1987 storm.

 

3 of the 10 seasons had above average snowfall (1981-1982, 1983-1984, and 1986-1987).  '87-'88 and '82-'83 were near normal while the other 5 were well below normal including two top 10 least snowiest winters. Yuck on that distribution curve.

 

Definitely not our best decade, that's for sure. It started of with the winter of 1980 which I think is the least snowiest at BDL (around 13" I think) and ended decently of course.  In between it had it's moments like Christmas Day 1980 and April 1983 (?).  We had back to back Veterans Day storms in '86 and '87.  Speaking of which, 1987 had one of latest and earliest snowfalls all in one year.  I think it was the shortest time without snow on record.

 

I'm sure there's some other highlights I'm not recalling but other than that, winters kind of stunk.  Thank God we had other stuff going on the rest of the year!

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Jan '87 was epic in ORH with 46.8" of snow and 5 storms exceeding 6" with two of them double digits...but that was the exception rather than the rule of the 1980s.

 

 

Overall it was a putrid decade for snowfall and large storms. It is the only decade on record that ORH failed to get a 18"+ snowstorm. They narrowly missed a few times with 16" back to back in Feb 1983 dual storms, 17" in March 29-30, 1984 storm and 17" in the April 1987 storm.

 

3 of the 10 seasons had above average snowfall (1981-1982, 1983-1984, and 1986-1987).  '87-'88 and '82-'83 were near normal while the other 5 were well below normal including two top 10 least snowiest winters. Yuck on that distribution curve.

4 of Albany's top 20 storms were in the 80's.  3 over 18". They were all actually before I arrived in Fall 85 lol. 

 

Rank Snowstorm Total Month Date Year

1 46.7" March 11-14 1888

2 26.6" March 13-14 1993

3 26.4" December 25-28 1969

4 24.7" December 13-15 1915

5 24.5" January 15-16 1983

6 Tie 23.5" February 14 1914

6 Tie 23.5" December 18-22 1887

8 22.5" November 24-25 1971

9 21.0" December 25-26 2002

10 20.8" January 3-4 2003

11 19.6" December 14-18 1981

12 18.8" March 13-14 1984

13 18.3" December 24-25 1966

14 18.2" February 22-25 1893

15 18.0" December 6-7 2003

16 Tie 17.9" February 15-16 1958

16 Tie 17.9" January 18-20 1936

18 17.8" March 8-12 1941

19 17.7" April 6-7 1982

20 17.6" January 14-19 1958

 

January 87 had 47.80".  I remember blasting through huge snowbanks with my 72 Ford Torino.  Good memories!

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posted this in the banter thread about tomorrow.

I'm trying to figure out where its creating all the omega. There's a little bit of instability and a decent vortmax...I dunno, I don't buy it. I think there will be plenty of snow showers and some embedded squalls around but the widespread 1-3 with probably some 4" lollis isn't that realistic to me.

Maybe it will trend better tonight on other guidance. :lol:

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Posted this on other sub forums, but this stood out big time to me...

 

***Today's 18z GFS 500mb is so scarily similar to 1994 its almost shocking;***

 

 

January 8-9 1994 was an overrunning storm with precip wedged between the northern confluence. 

18z GFS 186 HRS:

post-8091-0-52321100-1390779840_thumb.gi

 

January 8-9 1994

post-8091-0-19156500-1390779848_thumb.gi

 

Few days later on the GFS the remaining energy is ejected similar to the February 11 1994 storm.

 

I am giddy right now. 

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