40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm with you, Ray. January has pretty much sucked out here. I don't maintain a monthy total, but I think we just had a couple of forgettable events. Plus, the hills out here had bare ground. In January??? That's just pathetic. Oveall, the season seems to be on a pretty average pace, maybe a little below. But surmountable if we can get anything decent. Here's a stupid question for the day. How is the average monthy temp calculated? Is it the average of the daily averages? Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Thats more weenie mythology than anything else....they can help pump up heights in that region when there is more global support for it. Better off keeping a vigil on the arctic stratosphere and the MJO. Yeah, right after I posted I added "if only briefly" because I agree that from a true pattern perspective it's futile to rely on departing lows, but if we have follow up waves coming in behind, even a 24-36 hour window of bootleg blocking can help out the next guy. And that, despite being shown repeatedly, has just not been happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Euro with a snow to ice kind of deal for the Super Bowl. though with a warmer track than 12z . I'm sure the ens package is colder. GFS with a nice long duration snow event next weekend. And plenty more chances during the week I think one more week of relative monotony, then we pound...maybe you pelt a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm with you, Ray. January has pretty much sucked out here. I don't maintain a monthy total, but I think we just had a couple of forgettable events. Plus, the hills out here had bare ground. In January??? That's just pathetic. Oveall, the season seems to be on a pretty average pace, maybe a little below. But surmountable if we can get anything decent. Here's a stupid question for the day. How is the average monthy temp calculated? Is it the average of the daily averages? Yes, the daily averages are averaged but that is the same as averaging all of the maximum and minimum temperatures for the month. It's been a decent month down here with 18.4" which is above my long term average of 16.6" and an average temp ranking in my top 10 coldest in the past 29 years. I can't complain but I can understand others feeling left out of some snow. This winter hasn't allowed a lot of folks to build up a snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Any -NAO you see is bootleg. This is more of a big -EPO and arctic block with any -NAO look due to bootleg induced heights from low pressure as Radarman said. I haven't fallen into the -NAO trap yet since ensembles tell the story. The block in AK is so strong is's pretty much overwhelming everything. This block is trying to cause a -PNA and thus SE ridge...but it's also flattening the PV and pushing it south which means any SE ridge is more pulsating in nature and not more of a fix for areas north of the Mason-Dixon line. What it will do is to serve to drive lows close by and introduce ptype issues. It has the potential to be a very wintry time for a lot of New England. Where this sets up, we do not know...but latitude will start to be beneficial I think as we head into Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yeah, right after I posted I added "if only briefly" because I agree that from a true pattern perspective it's futile to rely on departing lows, but if we have follow up waves coming in behind, even a 24-36 hour window of bootleg blocking can help out the next guy. And that, despite being shown repeatedly, has just not been happening. Yea, I mean...I'm not as sharp as I used to be regarding teleconnections and general global synoptic schemes, but my take is that if you are provided impetus from somewhere around the globe, ie lagged manifestation of warming in the arctic stratosphere, and/or favorable MJO positioning (phases 7 and 8?), then strong departing cutters can act to augment the development of an NAO that was initiated by the aforementioned global forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Any -NAO you see is bootleg. This is more of a big -EPO and arctic block with any -NAO look due to bootleg induced heights from low pressure as Radarman said. I haven't fallen into the -NAO trap yet since ensembles tell the story. The block in AK is so strong is's pretty much overwhelming everything. This block is trying to cause a -PNA and thus SE ridge...but it's also flattening the PV and pushing it south which means any SE ridge is more pulsating in nature and not more of a fix for areas north of the Mason-Dixon line. What it will do is to serve to drive lows close by and introduce ptype issues. It has the potential to be a very wintry time for a lot of New England. Where this sets up, we do not know...but latitude will start to be beneficial I think as we head into Feb. Perhaps I'm wrong, but my perception of this scheme harkens back to what Tip preaches regarding the "compression of the geopotential medium" detracting from opportunities for strong cyclogenesis.....IOW, though there may be frequent "chances", blue-balls are going to be perpetuated if you're looking for a KU....at least into Feb a ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Perhaps I'm wrong, but my perception of this scheme harkens back to what Tip preaches regarding the "compression of the geopotential medium" detracting from strong cyclogenesis.....IOW, though there may be frequent "chances", blue-balls are going to be perpetuated if you're looking for a KU....at least into Feb a ways. This isn't a KU pattern...but you can't rule out a long duration overrunning event either with these lows coming from the deep south and srn plains. Because the Gulf of Mexico will be open for business, some of the systems may have some juice with them. Also, the whole flattening of the PV is in an overall sense. It only takes one trough to push into the Plains and a lift north of the PV to get a formidable low moving into the Ohio Valley. Not all these systems will be 1008mb farts moving off the coast of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This isn't a KU pattern...but you can't rule out a long duration overrunning event either with these lows coming from the deep south and srn plains. Because the Gulf of Mexico will be open for business, some of the systems may have some juice with them. Also, the whole flattening of the PV is in an overall sense. It only takes one trough to push into the Plains and a lift north of the PV to get a formidable low moving into the Ohio Valley. Not all these systems will be 1008mb farts moving off the coast of NJ. Right....all I was implying is that it would be unwise to lay in wait for a deliberately progressive, 979 mb cut-off tempest loitering over the BM...or from my perspective, about 25 miles inside of it. Not complaining...just trying to set things straight to provide some regulation of expectations moving forward... The upshot is that, Feb 9, 2013 is not walking through that door...Feb 6-7, 1978 is not walking through that door.....nor is Feb 1969, but if your nice, and court her appropriately, perhaps PD II may be amendable to a friends-with-bennies arrangement?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This isn't a KU pattern...but you can't rule out a long duration overrunning event either with these lows coming from the deep south and srn plains. Because the Gulf of Mexico will be open for business, some of the systems may have some juice with them. Also, the whole flattening of the PV is in an overall sense. It only takes one trough to push into the Plains and a lift north of the PV to get a formidable low moving into the Ohio Valley. Not all these systems will be 1008 mb farts moving off the coast of NJ. I was mildly intrigued by the 2/1 period just because it looked (looks?) like we were going to get a little undercutting from the STJ to help out. Even if it happens and a decent storm forms in the plains as it feeds into the buzzsaw you have to think it comes out piecemeal, looking more like a SWFE for the meantime. I will say though the last storm (that missed me) had a squall line form off Hatteras. I kind of like that we're seeing signs of truculence in these sorry looking lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Pretty easy summary so far for January, It has sucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 January has been a disappointment for about 80% of winter weather enthusiasts throughout NE. Fact, not opinion. Yeah if you're looking for grandiosity featuring organized moisture laden storms that originate in the tropics and collide with arctic air that is held in place by a Quebec high, I might undestand why its a frustrating winter. It's been a Northern stream winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yes, the daily averages are averaged but that is the same as averaging all of the maximum and minimum temperatures for the month. It's been a decent month down here with 18.4" which is above my long term average of 16.6" and an average temp ranking in my top 10 coldest in the past 29 years. I can't complain but I can understand others feeling left out of some snow. This winter hasn't allowed a lot of folks to build up a snow pack. its amazing you have me beat by 10 inches but youre far enough away and the elevation helps too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Pretty easy summary so far for January, It has sucked Haven't you been to Paris island? Get out of the clubhouse and field some grounders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Pretty easy summary so far for January, It has sucked I think it's a perception/reality thing. PWM is actually running a snow surplus for Jan. GYX is similar to BTV with 4-5" below normal. We could easily make this season up in the next couple of months. It's been a whole lot of meh, but it could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Any -NAO you see is bootleg. This is more of a big -EPO and arctic block with any -NAO look due to bootleg induced heights from low pressure as Radarman said. I haven't fallen into the -NAO trap yet since ensembles tell the story. The block in AK is so strong is's pretty much overwhelming everything. This block is trying to cause a -PNA and thus SE ridge...but it's also flattening the PV and pushing it south which means any SE ridge is more pulsating in nature and not more of a fix for areas north of the Mason-Dixon line. What it will do is to serve to drive lows close by and introduce ptype issues. It has the potential to be a very wintry time for a lot of New England. Where this sets up, we do not know...but latitude will start to be beneficial I think as we head into Feb. Good post and I think that sums it up pretty well. Main issue will be the strength of that SE ridge which I am sure will change rather dramatically from model runs to runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Still a stretch to me. I don't really like it as of now. 2/3-2/5 looks really interesting on the ens...playing with fire though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Haven't you been to Paris island? Get out of the clubhouse and field some grounders. I will take my chances going forward with a SE ridge, At least we may get something coming north from the southern stream then these bible dry northern stream s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 How quickly we forget that most of the area was running around 5" for all of last January. I know it's hard to "waste" the cold, but at least we have cold to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I think it's a perception/reality thing. PWM is actually running a snow surplus for Jan. GYX is similar to BTV with 4-5" below normal. We could easily make this season up in the next couple of months. It's been a whole lot of meh, but it could be worse. Been pretty lackluster here since the 3rd of the month, We have been a little unlucky here missing out on a few events and then being like 15 miles to far north for another, Their is no doub't we can make it up, I just hate to lose most of January, And march has been a crap shoot as far as being a winter month over the last several years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 How quickly we forget that most of the area was running around 5" for all of last January. I know it's hard to "waste" the cold, but at least we have cold to work with. Many years folks would kill for a winter like this in New England. Once they wrap their hands around the idea that it's a nickel and dime winter and well BN temps..they'll be able to enjoy it. The ones looking for KU's and jackpot fetishes are simply going to suffer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Ray, to compare your January to dryslot's or mpm's is to compare 2000-01 with 2001-02 for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well i for one don't care about KU or jackpots, Because those are both rare up here, I rather have the nickels and dimes, But we are having issues getting pennies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I was mildly intrigued by the 2/1 period just because it looked (looks?) like we were going to get a little undercutting from the STJ to help out. Even if it happens and a decent storm forms in the plains as it feeds into the buzzsaw you have to think it comes out piecemeal, looking more like a SWFE for the meantime. I will say though the last storm (that missed me) had a squall line form off Hatteras. I kind of like that we're seeing signs of truculence in these sorry looking lows. Yeah that's true. Sometimes you get a cutoff low near Baja and you get almost an induced STJ coming into TX and perhaps another s/w moving down through the high plains in the nrn stream. Of course those can lead to Cleveland steamers too lol, so it's a tricky game we play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Scooter, what are you forecasting for the storm next weekend for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Yea scooter, its 5 days out..you should be confident in a forecast like Lonnie Quinn. Do tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Been pretty lackluster here since the 3rd of the month, We have been a little unlucky here missing out on a few events and then being like 15 miles to far north for another, Their is no doub't we can make it up, I just hate to lose most of January, And march has been a crap shoot as far as being a winter month over the last several years Long live Morch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Many years folks would kill for a winter like this in New England. Once they wrap their hands around the idea that it's a nickel and dime winter and well BN temps..they'll be able to enjoy it. The ones looking for KU's and jackpot fetishes are simply going to suffer Congrats, well reasoned post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Well i for one don't care about KU or jackpots, Because those are both rare up here, I rather have the nickels and dimes, But we are having issues getting penniesyeah the drought is getting old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Congrats, well reasoned post.1 of 40,000+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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