powderfreak Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Great discussion past couple pages.....True colors coming out. It is borderline impossible to talk about a cutter or warm-up on here during the winter without a sh*tshow starting. It doesn't matter if it has meteorological legs or truth to it. It's just something that doesn't go without a few pages of craziness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 It is borderline impossible to talk about a cutter or warm-up on here during the winter without a sh*tshow starting. It doesn't matter if it has meteorological legs or truth to it. It's just something that doesn't go without a few pages of craziness. Pretty much. I understand the frustration some have...but what else are we supposed to do? Not talk about it and lie? Not only that....we stated that it very well won't be a "classic" cutter to Montreal...but the minds of some automatically seem to gravitate to a 60/59 type torch for three days. I guess we just ignore it until it's in the RAP range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Pretty much. I understand the frustration some have...but what else are we supposed to do? Not talk about it and lie? Not only that....we stated that it very well won't be a "classic" cutter to Montreal...but the minds of some automatically seem to gravitate to a 60/59 type torch for three days. I guess we just ignore it until it's in the RAP range. Pretty much ignore it. If you mention it, you will likely be called out for trolling, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 This weeks cold is targeting west of us which could be ok actually for a late modeled coastal. Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Please excuse if any of this is redundant ... I haven't been on really in three days because in having started a new job my attention was diverted to that effort. My take on things is that another deeply anomalous cold air mass is within a day or two of taking over the MW/GL, and then in some moderated form ... will spread E and eventually spill over the App. cordillera ... mainly in a dry uneventful form -- though there are some minor impulses that could provide for some snow here or there. There doesn't seem to be any more important events over the next week to ten days because the pattern has a larger scale, l/w interference appeal to it. Quasi split flow, with the EPO domain still trying to keep a N stream moving SE through Canada, while the PNAP orientation retrogrades closer to the west coast, causing heights to fall somewhat in the means, around the Great Basin of the Rockies. This causes the flow to buckle around it and then this pseudo-S stream then has to be confluent with said N stream around the GL/SE Canada and/or NE regions. It provides for colder appeals through the middle range, but not a lot of potential for a winter precipitation events. Further out in time ...perhaps a week to ten days, there is that operational suggestion for return to anomalously high SE heights associated with what seems now to be a decade-long permanent ridge fixture (not sure what's up with that ...). In fact, it probably never was gone, but merely compressed/suppressed by an all-mighty N stream that has dominated this winter. It is one reason (imo) why we have seen less bigger events and more of a nickle-dime season. Flow is too "sheary" and progressive, as I and others have hammered over time(s). What the op. runs are doing are relaxing the N stream for a few days post this cold wave's execution, and when that happens ... it is like the whole of the atmosphere has an elasticity about it and it snaps back to the fore-said preferred decadal state. The ensembles of the Euro do not really agree with the operational thinking, however. They have some hint at heights there, but no where near the 588dm D10 depiction by the 00z op. version. I am kind of suspicious about the model(s) handling overall, wrt the N stream. We have seen on a few occasions this cold season, the models try to dismantle the tendency for -EPO, only to have them return. ...and verify. I like to see the -EPO actually go away one of these time, and already ... I see the oper. GFS actually has a 570dm height node centered over NE Alaska in the extended and we may just be seeing old tapes being played. Time will tell, but that is no way to run a season ending warm up. In terms of weighting anomalies, if that ridge takes place up there I bet it has a higher SD than the SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 It is borderline impossible to talk about a cutter or warm-up on here during the winter without a sh*tshow starting. It doesn't matter if it has meteorological legs or truth to it. It's just something that doesn't go without a few pages of craziness. but that's the beauty of the board. its winter, stakes are high....emotions running fiercely through our veins. there is hardly a dull moment, outside the dead hours in the evening. the weenie freaks come out when an op run shows a sub 980 bomb off the coast and the worriers penetrate through their basement subflooring when an op run shows a cutter......there's nowhere to hide, we are who we thought we were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Tippy the GEFS has a massive...massive ridge near AK. It pushes the PV south and all the while the PNA drops too. That's a pretty sweet look on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Well for those with cutter worries...if anything the ridge near AK keeps on strengthening. That may have helped lower the PNA...but it's just sitting on that PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 As a refined weenie, all I know is i get my 1/2 half inch later. And there's really no end to our cold air so the possibilities in my future are infinite. 10 years ago I'd be upping my anti-depressant dosage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 As a refined weenie, all I know is i get my 1/2 half inch later. And there's really no end to our cold air so the possibilities in my future are infinite. 10 years ago I'd be upping my anti-depressant dosage. That's a plus 10 post right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Tippy the GEFS has a massive...massive ridge near AK. It pushes the PV south and all the while the PNA drops too. That's a pretty sweet look on the 12z run. split flow style too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 As a refined weenie, all I know is i get my 1/2 half inch later. And there's really no end to our cold air so the possibilities in my future are infinite. 10 years ago I'd be upping my anti-depressant dosage. Old age brings tons of wisdom and tons of reality. This is going to be a fun ride for everyone across the nation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Old age brings tons of wisdom and tons of reality. This is going to be a fun ride for everyone across the nation. Agree. Crying and teeth gnashing before rejoicing closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Old age brings tons of wisdom and tons of reality. This is going to be a fun ride for everyone across the nation.+5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 That's a plus 10 post right therethx bud. Neither wanna know the horrors nor the surprises that await me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 That's a lot of snow potential on the GEFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 If they ain't complaining its too cold, they missed out last time, or the CF dumped 2 inches more snow next town over, then they are worrying about day ten op runs, you know the drill. Insatiable really At least some of this is directed at me.... 1) It was 12" more. 2) I was still happy with the storm...but 'cmon, you would not have mentioned that a couple of times?? It was a mini Dec 2003. 3) Again, I was speaking in a theoretical sense...a concept that is repeatedly being lost on a few. I never said that I was "worried" about it, or that I believed it. Not sure whether any one did...but I will say this, it is a theme that certainly is not foreign to this season As for the "too, cold"....got me, there. On the heels of a near-miss, with patches of bare ground...yea, that cold sucked. Nothing I can't tolerate, but it would have been more enjoyable with a deep mantle of fresh powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Tippy the GEFS has a massive...massive ridge near AK. It pushes the PV south and all the while the PNA drops too. That's a pretty sweet look on the 12z run. Not surprising, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 At least some of this is directed at me.... 1) It was 12" more. 2) I was still happy with the storm...but 'cmon, you would not have mentioned that a couple of times?? It was a mini Dec 2003. 3) Again, I was speaking in a theoretical sense...a concept that is repeatedly being lost on a few. I never said that I was "worried" about it, or that I believed it. Not sure whether any one did...but I will say this, it is a theme that certainly is not foreign to this season As for the "too, cold"....got me, there. On the heels of a near-miss, with patches of bare ground...yea, that cold sucked. Nothing I can't tolerate, but it would have been more enjoyable with a deep mantle of fresh powder. Actually it wasn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2014 Author Share Posted January 25, 2014 Scott ... the 384 hour oper. GFS; set it side by side to the initial chart and it is for all intents and purpose no different. At least within this one run, and regardless of what happens in between, that is a pretty strong argument for pattern persistence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Scott ... the 384 hour oper. GFS; set it side by side to the initial chart and it is for all intents and purpose no different. At least within this one run, and regardless of what happens in between, that is a pretty strong argument for pattern persistence. The ridge feature will be persistent. I think the question is more of what happens with the PNA. You can tell the whole pattern wants to argue for storms riding close by, but that ridge sitting on the PV sort of has the final say. Will it be strong enough to squash it south or will it relinquish enough to allow for ptype problems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Actually it wasn't Really? Who else complained about the cf dropping more snow near by? I know I mentioned after Topsfield got buried on in the 1/2-3 event. Fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 The ridge feature will be persistent. I think the question is more of what happens with the PNA. You can tell the whole pattern wants to argue for storms riding close by, but that ridge sitting on the PV sort of has the final say. Will it be strong enough to squash it south or will it relinquish enough to allow for ptype problems? There's some good tropical forcing on that ridge too. We've kind of been the equivalent of phase 7 even though tis been in an out of the COD on the RMM charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 Really? Who else complained about the cf dropping more snow near by? I know I mentioned after Topsfield got buried on in the 1/2-3 event. Fair enough. There really hasn't been a CF since early Jan. I don't really count the one down by Cohasset that separated 21F air from 12F air...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 There's some good tropical forcing on that ridge too. We've kind of been the equivalent of phase 7 even though tis been in an out of the COD on the RMM charts. Everything I have seen argues for that too. Continuing convection in the WPAC. It's a real high stakes pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 So is the consensus we are punting the rest of January for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 There really hasn't been a CF since early Jan. I don't really count the one down by Cohasset that separated 21F air from 12F air...lol. That's why I'm not sure who else he was referencing with that comment, but I guess it doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 So is the consensus we are punting the rest of January for snow? I certainly have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 So is the consensus we are punting the rest of January for snow? Major snows, yes. We may get a small event today...a coating to an inch on Monday in spots and there's a chance for something small on 1/31 too. That goes well with the analogs patterns recently that have shown a lot of small events but nothing major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 25, 2014 Share Posted January 25, 2014 What's the euro show for around the superbowl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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