RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I'm almost afraid to post about how a pattern looks anymore because it seems like people twist it around. I have to be careful with my words. Write in all caps and bold the main points lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I'm almost afraid to post about how a pattern looks anymore because it seems like people twist it around. I have to be careful with my words. Well I think a lot of it is most of us have become so comfortable posting with each other we just occupy our time on here egging each other on by twisting slight phrasing. It's like a little game everyone plays, haha. Everyone knows what sort of post will get a response from any given poster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 http://cdn.abclocal.go.com/images/otrc/2010/photos/9076372_600x338.jpg Well played sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I'm almost afraid to post about how a pattern looks anymore because it seems like people twist it around. I have to be careful with my words. What /man I expect -25 , 850s until late March, please dont tell me in 15 days it might get near normal highs of 35, god that is just awful. 5 cutters in Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 In the hills, pretty much so. Go below and there are a couple inches of cover.99% bare here this morningWell...coated now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Let's hope the euro guidance is correct with snow later this week or the lawns that are bare will be destroyed by the cold. it will take it away inside of 96 hrs, that's been the trend the whole winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 it will take it away inside of 96 hrs, that's been the trend the whole winter Man you are always pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 What /man I expect -25 , 850s until late March, please dont tell me in 15 days it might get near normal highs of 35, god that is just awful. 5 cutters in Feb You would've died laughing if we said five rainstorms from Dec 20th-Jan 20th, lol. There's no way that rate continues. Is Tamarack still at higher rain totals than snow totals this January? Hopefully today will change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Man you are always pessimistic. That's rough coming from the "caution" guy. Your optimism seems inversely proportionate to how much snow I get...and vice versa haha. If I'm happy with a pattern, you are generally more pessimistic and cautious....I'm you are happy and not throwing caution flags, I'm more pessimistic. We could probably write a math equation to show the relationship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Also like the way Messenger calls this a cold snap. His constant downplaying for the last two years is weird, just look leading up to Blizz 13, and this years great EMA storm, oh he only had a foot in his back yard, bummer, almost a fail safe self protection mode. I've had far more impressive storms here despite what someone HAM radio'd in as a report. It was nice, but not what happened on the north shore or even out by Phil. When you're talking about downplaying.... Boston Departures for the last 30 days despite non stop talk about Leon and Polar Vortexes and economic ruin from cold. The longest stretch of below was 5 days. If today ends up normal it'll have been 8 straight days of mostly +12 or better, 1 torch of 8 days, 1 of 6 days and 1 of 4 days vs 1 5 day cold snap and 1 4 day. Hardly sustained, devastating cold. It's been a tale of two extremes and I see no reason to think that won't continue going forward. The difference between me calling a 4 or 5 day period a cold snap and you thinking it's the third little ice age incoming is similar to you pretending this torch didn't just happen and totally ignoring the reality of the last 30/1 days, of which 19 were above normal and 12 were below. Note I didn't really call it a torch as although the departure are intense it's not 2012 all over again. It's a series of extremes. What comes now may be different but I'd prefer to see it inside of 8-10 days as a sustained, prolonged Leon'esque 04 outbreak before I ignore the reality of the last 31 days which has had some pretty harsh consequences for our friends to the north. It's very hard to argue with these numbers...the mild periods are intense and usually longer than the coold periods and the reality of the outbreaks is that there have been 9 days with a positive departure of 12 or more, only 4 cold periods with similar or greater departures. The warm has been worse than the cold aside of one or two days in Boston. Like I said 19 of the last 31 days have had a positive departure. A majority of the days have been warm due to cutters and a no Atlantic blocking. 12/18 -6 12/19 1 12/20 9 12/21 15 12/22 12 12/23 5 12/24 2 12/25 -10 12/26 -3 12/27 1 12/28 7 12/29 8 12/30 1 12/31 -10 1/1 -6 1/2 -16 1/3 -22 1/4 -15 1/5 1 1/6 14 1/7 -10 1/8 -14 1/9 -4 1/10 -1 1/11 18 1/12 17 1/13 12 1/14 18 1/15 13 1/16 7 1/17 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 two totally impressive thaws, ones I called for in my six week forecasts way back in early Nov then again in Early Dec, +4- +6 is what I said Scott. I never said it wasn't and agreed with you on the YO YO, but to call what is coming a cold snap is like calling Feb 13 a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 two totally impressive thaws, ones I called for in my six week forecasts way back in early Nov then again in Early Dec, +4- +6 is what I said Scott. I never said it wasn't and agreed with you on the YO YO, but to call what is coming a cold snap is like calling Feb 13 a snowstorm. Boston is +1.1 for the month right now which hasn't even been mentioned. That's astounding given how cold it was for those two periods. We haven't been having hacky sack weather but the warmth is impressive day/night. Steve we're just going back and forth as always...no hostilities intended. It's just an IMO thing I consider 5/6...really a week long period of cold an outbreak. I can't get too jazzed up or worried about a few days of extreme cold particularly when it's been 4 days of cold...cutter and torch, back to 4 more days of cold. Sans the cutters and it'd feel a lot worse. I haven't follow the upcoming pattern very closely because I think it's in flux. But I'm not buying sustained of one or the other without interruption. I just don't think it fits the overall pattern of the winter. My only question is going forward..in 30 days will a printout like the one I did be more black/blue from cold than it was warm these past 31 days. I mean dead of winter...this is grim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Boston is +1.1 for the month right now which hasn't even been mentioned. That's astounding given how cold it was for those two periods. We haven't been having hacky sack weather but the warmth is impressive day/night. Steve we're just going back and forth as always...no hostilities intended. It's just an IMO thing I consider 5/6...really a week long period of cold an outbreak. I can't get too jazzed up or worried about a few days of extreme cold particularly when it's been 4 days of cold...cutter and torch, back to 4 more days of cold. Sans the cutters and it'd feel a lot worse. I haven't follow the upcoming pattern very closely because I think it's in flux. But I'm not buying sustained of one or the other without interruption. I just don't think it fits the overall pattern of the winter. My only question is going forward..in 30 days will a printout like the one I did be more black/blue from cold than it was warm these past 31 days. I mean dead of winter...this is grim. Maybe this will help state what I think is coming, just not your typical mid winter arctic cold snap, that was my point.LOL Scott on hostilities, you are a friend, just sane disagreement between friends,. My great friends invited me to Berkshire east today, dealing with a sick elderly mom and work so no go, looks like they have a powder day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I've had far more impressive storms here despite what someone HAM radio'd in as a report. It was nice, but not what happened on the north shore or even out by Phil. When you're talking about downplaying.... Boston Departures for the last 30 days despite non stop talk about Leon and Polar Vortexes and economic ruin from cold. The longest stretch of below was 5 days. If today ends up normal it'll have been 8 straight days of mostly +12 or better, 1 torch of 8 days, 1 of 6 days and 1 of 4 days vs 1 5 day cold snap and 1 4 day. Hardly sustained, devastating cold. It's been a tale of two extremes and I see no reason to think that won't continue going forward. The difference between me calling a 4 or 5 day period a cold snap and you thinking it's the third little ice age incoming is similar to you pretending this torch didn't just happen and totally ignoring the reality of the last 30/1 days, of which 19 were above normal and 12 were below. Note I didn't really call it a torch as although the departure are intense it's not 2012 all over again. It's a series of extremes. What comes now may be different but I'd prefer to see it inside of 8-10 days as a sustained, prolonged Leon'esque 04 outbreak before I ignore the reality of the last 31 days which has had some pretty harsh consequences for our friends to the north. It's very hard to argue with these numbers...the mild periods are intense and usually longer than the coold periods and the reality of the outbreaks is that there have been 9 days with a positive departure of 12 or more, only 4 cold periods with similar or greater departures. The warm has been worse than the cold aside of one or two days in Boston. Like I said 19 of the last 31 days have had a positive departure. A majority of the days have been warm due to cutters and a no Atlantic blocking. 12/18 -6 12/19 1 12/20 9 12/21 15 12/22 12 12/23 5 12/24 2 12/25 -10 12/26 -3 12/27 1 12/28 7 12/29 8 12/30 1 12/31 -10 1/1 -6 1/2 -16 1/3 -22 1/4 -15 1/5 1 1/6 14 1/7 -10 1/8 -14 1/9 -4 1/10 -1 1/11 18 1/12 17 1/13 12 1/14 18 1/15 13 1/16 7 1/17 12 This is a great post. It's interesting how so many people I talk to up here in Toronto are worn out by the cold and yet, really, this month has been nowhere near as severe as the Januaries of 1977,1978,1979,1981,1982,1984 and 1994, at least here in Toronto. I think Canadians have lost their legendary resilience to the cold. In January 1977, for example, as well as in February 1979, this city apparently experienced week after week of severe cold, not the two or three day shots of cold that this month has provided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 You guys are fine in New England are fine. It's the NYC/Mid-Atlantic area that I'm concerned about. MJO in Phase 7 isn't always a Grade A pattern for a Significant snowfall event, especially the fact that it has an EB -NAO Signature to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 No fighting no biting. I like the euro ens look for Thursday/Thursday night. Deep cold coming this week. It will mild up around 2/1 but we'll get cold again. Leon's an old man. His younger self would have crimped these torches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Ugh 12z gfs would have us all on suicide watch going into February. We are flooded with mild air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Ugh 12z gfs would have us all on suicide watch going into February. We are flooded with mild air. It may have some in suicide watch while others keep on keeping on. Take the mild up signal and know that it will get cold afterwards again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Lol allsnow...I just look at the op long range and it looked different than expected after reading your post. There are a few days of warmth but that pattern if it occurred would be rather snowy in New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Ugh 12z gfs would have us all on suicide watch going into February. We are flooded with mild air. it's either wrong like it was about a week ago or it's catching onto the seasonal trend of 5-7 days of cold then warmup then cold etc. I have doubts about the 10-14 days of brutal cold with no letup that models had been showing until last night...there's usually a break after a week or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Lol allsnow...I just look at the op long range and it looked different than expected after reading your post. There are a few days of warmth but that pattern if it occurred would be rather snowy in New England. Very gradient like to start February, Orh will do well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 it's either wrong like it was about a week ago or it's catching onto the seasonal trend of 5-7 days of cold then warmup then cold etc. I have doubts about the 10-14 days of brutal cold with no letup that models had been showing until last night... Jmho we won't see 10-15 days straight. At the very least we will have some cutter tossed in there to monkey with temps. Looks like a cold shot, mild up and then cold again. Really same ground truth and what Scott and others have talked about for a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Canada is still cold though. As long as we don't lose the -epo i think well be okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Very gradient like to start February, Orh will do well NNE even better. I like those patterns because I have some latitude even on ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I realize from a technical standpoint the upcoming pattern is "different" but to me it looks like about the same result. We get 4-5 days of big departures before it relaxes considerably with perhaps another rainstorm or cutter. The pattern left behind is another one of gradients and stale air masses. Could be totally wrong, that's how it looks to me as we head into February. Whether that too is very transient or it ends up being another 7-8 day mild up remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I realize from a technical standpoint the upcoming pattern is "different" but to me it looks like about the same result. We get 4-5 days of big departures before it relaxes considerably with perhaps another rainstorm or cutter. The pattern left behind is another one of gradients and stale air masses. Could be totally wrong, that's how it looks to me as we head into February. Whether that too is very transient or it ends up being another 7-8 day mild up remains to be seen. that's been pretty much what we've had since late November so why change. Those models showing 12-15 days of epic cold were fun to watch, but in reality, that's somewhat of a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Let's see where we're at in 2 weeks. We know this week gets cold and hopefully the snow happens. I'm thinking 1/21-31 will average far below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Let's see where we're at in 2 weeks. We know this week gets cold and hopefully the snow happens. I'm thinking 1/21-31 will average far below normal. That's a lock. Guess the question is to do we then have another 7-10 days of garbage before a reload or does a monster shot of arctic come in around 1-30 or so like the GFS previously had. Euro will be telling as to whether it follows the GFS or says FU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 It's looking like Joe Bastardi could potentially bust hard with his call for a bitter last week of January. Let's see what the 12z Euro says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 It's looking like Joe Bastardi could potentially bust hard with his call for a bitter last week of January. Let's see what the 12z Euro says. " the upcoming cold will have the damage the equivalent of a hurricane strike on the US coast" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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