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January 2014 Pattern Discussion Part II


Typhoon Tip

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They always are. Looks like NNE is going to have some fun in Feb.

At least Ray may get his SWFE. The hoopty may get the salt cleaned off.

In all seriousness, there's some risk/reward there depending on where the boundary sets up. I don't like it being modeled so far north like this in the LR though. Hopefully it trends a bit cooler before the almost inevitable bump north begins.

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At least Ray may get his SWFE. The hoopty may get the salt cleaned off.

In all seriousness, there's some risk/reward there depending on where the boundary sets up. I don't like it being modeled so far north like this in the LR though. Hopefully it trends a bit cooler before the almost inevitable bump north begins.

 

That's always the risk with a gradient setting up. Hopefully the GEFS have a better clue.

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Man, Coastalwx has been shooting at will lately with the confidence of a good local winter so far. No more hiding behind the shed, throwing caution flags, hoping the boogeyman of 2012 has left the property. ;)

 

It's been looking up for a while there. I admit that I thought the end of January would be a little better there and it doesn't appear that wau so I'm wrong there...but I fully believe in a good Feb in NNE. I feel good for this area too....my point is that I think it will transition from more all snow events in ACK and whiffs in NNE...to possibly more ptype issues here and more snowy relative to normal up there. Just my guess. I'm sure Kevin will interpret this post as me saying rain in SNE...lol. I like the look here as well.

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It's been looking up for a while there. I admit that I thought the end of January would be a little better there and it doesn't appear that wau so I'm wrong there...but I fully believe in a good Feb in NNE. I feel good for this area too....my point is that I think it will transition from more all snow events in ACK and whiffs in NNE...to possibly more ptype issues here and more snowy relative to normal up there. Just my guess. I'm sure Kevin will interpret this post as me saying rain in SNE...lol. I like the look here as well.

Well you are probably on the right path, as usually patterns seem to take a little longer to change than expected...so Jan was a lost cause aside from these chances for some light 1-3" type "events." There was no way a stronger synoptic event would get close to here with that trough axis and -30C 850s just north.

Feb looks better if we get that vortex or trough axis a little further west and relaxing. Problem is, with no -NAO, if it relaxes or moves too far west, we get cutters. Hopefully the law of averages will set this up in such a way that we can get some synoptic snows of greater than 3". I'm optimistic.

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Well you are probably on the right path, as usually patterns seem to take a little longer to change than expected...so Jan was a lost cause aside from these chances for some light 1-3" type "events." There was no way a stronger synoptic event would get close to here with that trough axis and -30C 850s just north.

Feb looks better if we get that vortex or trough axis a little further west and relaxing. Problem is, with no -NAO, if it relaxes or moves too far west, we get cutters. Hopefully the law of averages will set this up in such a way that we can get some synoptic snows of greater than 3". I'm optimistic.

 

That block will prevent most cutters. Maybe one or two try to sneak in because every winter always has them...but overall storms will have a tough time cutting I think. Better chances of storms crossing over my head. At the very least, this will be a good pattern for the interior and potentially all areas.

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That block will prevent most cutters. Maybe one or two try to sneak in because every winter always has them...but overall storms will have a tough time cutting I think. Better chances of storms crossing over my head. At the very least, this will be a good pattern for the interior and potentially all areas.

Its really, really time for this season to either $hit, or get off the pot for a lot of NE.

I mean, its been almost a month since many of us have had a real significant event.

Near miss, cutter, painfully near miss, cutter??

Tough to see a month as cold is this is going to be with as little snow as there has been in this area.

Walking a fine line with going down in frustrating flames if this next round of events is too far nw.

 

I still like Feb, but am growing a bit frustrated.

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Its really, really time for this season to either $hit, or get off the pot for a lot of NE.

I mean, its been almost a month since many of us have had a real significant event.

Near miss, cutter, painfully near miss, cutter??

Tough to see a month as cold is this is going to be with as little snow as there has been in this area.

Walking a fine line with going down in frustrating flames if this next round of events is too far nw.

 

I still like Feb, but am growing a bit frustrated.

Have you looked at the GEFS ? easy Ray its a nice if not great look

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Have you looked at the GEFS ? easy Ray its a nice if not great look

No, I was speaking purely from a hypothetical standpoint.

 

I haven't looked at a model run in a few seasons....hasn't been a top priority.

 

Like I said, I think Feb will produce, but January 2014 will not be looked back on fondly in my eyes.

Even Jan '04 wasn't this frustrating because I never saw 1' of snow 25 miles away.

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