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January 2014 Pattern Discussion Part II


Typhoon Tip

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That was cold and dry but with 3-4 feet falling in the vicinity of Valentine's Day, lol. I guess we got lucky.

I know I'm not alone in the thinking that deep cold doesn't lead to good snows up here...I've heard Cold Front and Tamarack express similar sentiments. It's not that it doesn't happen, it's just not our best set up like it is for the Mid-Atlantic and SNE, especially the coast.

My point is that its not nearly as bad as you think it is sometimes. There is also a lot variability in these patterns. You can see it just looking through the most similar patterns in the past...some produced well even up to your area and soem didn't. The on theme for the near term (like next week or so) is that it looked unfavorable for a larger coastal.

At least in your area. I'm sure getting up into Maine it can be a bit different due to their larger reliance on coastal systems.

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For all the complaining about the cold, it hasn't been that cold.  Sure it's below average but it hasn't been that extreme and morning lows could be much colder.  I was looking back on some colder months and we're not even close to how cold it could be.  It's also fun watching the ice grow on places that don't normally see it.  It should be interesting in a few weeks!

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If you dont have money to warm the house, move to the deep south. You can buy a house for $100k and pay $900 yearly property tax, and never have to worry about turning the heat on. Though copperhead snakes often live on your back porch, year long balck widow and tarantula treatment is mandatory, you have to fight off the choking humid summer air masses, if you see a flake (once a decade) schools close, and locals still think its the 1960s. Other than that, its a great place to call home.

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So for NNE, we don't want a -NAO and we don't want a +NAO...maybe next year we'll have it sit near neutral in a pattern like '52-'53 and then they can hate neutral NAOs too.

 

At least when I complained two years ago...we had a raging Bering sea vortex.  In that case, we are all fooked. :lol:

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For all the complaining about the cold, it hasn't been that cold.  Sure it's below average but it hasn't been that extreme and morning lows could be much colder.  I was looking back on some colder months and we're not even close to how cold it could be.  It's also fun watching the ice grow on places that don't normally see it.  It should be interesting in a few weeks!

 

 

Certainly not the end of the world death to everyone arctic outbreak Joe Bastardi was going nuts about.

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If you dont have money to warm the house, move to the deep south. You can buy a house for $100k and pay $900 yearly property tax, and never have to worry about turning the heat on. Though copperhead snakes often live on your back porch, year long balck widow and tarantula treatment is mandatory, you have to fight off the choking humid summer air masses, if you see a flake (once a decade) schools close, and locals still think its the 1960s. Other than that, its a great place to call home.

LOL, reminds me of my aunt and uncle back in the 80's, both were retired and had enough of winter, in the fall they moved to South Carolina, by the following fall they were back in Connecticut.

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For all the complaining about the cold, it hasn't been that cold.  Sure it's below average but it hasn't been that extreme and morning lows could be much colder.  I was looking back on some colder months and we're not even close to how cold it could be.  It's also fun watching the ice grow on places that don't normally see it.  It should be interesting in a few weeks!

 

The cold will be more remembered for its longevity on this upcoming (and past coupel days) pattern rather than its intensity. We basically get an arctic airmass sitting over a large expanse of the CONUS for like over a week...its not a quick shot like earlier this month.

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That was cold and dry but with 3-4 feet falling in the vicinity of Valentine's Day, lol. I guess we got lucky.

I know I'm not alone in the thinking that deep cold doesn't lead to good snows up here...I've heard Cold Front and Tamarack express similar sentiments. It's not that it doesn't happen, it's just not our best set up like it is for the Mid-Atlantic and SNE, especially the coast.

 

Looking at 16 yr of snowfall records here, it seems that once the temperature is cold enough to have snow, just how far below freezing shows little effect on large events.  I've recorded 10 storms of 15"+, 26 of 10"+ (including 2 last month) and 69 of 6"+.  For each of those sorts, about 60% of the events came with temps in the 20s (slightly more in the upper 20s than lower), 30% were colder and 10% milder.  I've yet to record a 6"+ snowfall with temps mainly below 5F here, but in both Gardiner and Ft. Kent I'd have one such event every 3 years.  Odd, but tiny sample size.

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If you dont have money to warm the house, move to the deep south. You can buy a house for $100k and pay $900 yearly property tax, and never have to worry about turning the heat on. Though copperhead snakes often live on your back porch, year long balck widow and tarantula treatment is mandatory, you have to fight off the choking humid summer air masses, if you see a flake (once a decade) schools close, and locals still think its the 1960s. Other than that, its a great place to call home.

i think about all the spiders that must live in the warmer climates too, i hate spiders and we have plenty around here in season!
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I've only got like 7 more inches than Philly (33" vs 40") on the season, on January 23rd.  I think its safe to say that hasn't happened before...northern VT mountain communities running in the same league as Philly at the end of January.

 

Lets hope we never see something like this again, lol.  Although its gotta be pretty sweet for the I-95 weenies.

 

Anomalous, but nothing like 2009-10, the year BWI had 10% more snow than CAR, something I wouldn't expect to see again even if I lived to 150.  To show how weird that was, the top 5 BWI winters (some in Baltimore pre-BWI) and the bottom 5 for CAR are below.  Not much overlap.

 

BWI

77.0....2009-10

62,5....1995-96

58.1....2002-03

51.8....1963-64

51.1....1898-99

 

CAR

59.6....1943-44

68.5....1961-62

70.3....2009-10

71.2....1947-48

72.6....1950-51

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It's an interesting setup.  You have that initial s/w that sharpens the trough and than there is a monster of a s/w diving out of Canada behind it.

 

Yeah you have the PV rotating up with plenty of s/w's diving S and then SE along with the ridge out west. The problem obviously is timing the plethora of s/w's coming down..but it has potential. 

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