Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I think you are underestimating zee sneakiness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Haha I had no idea....I obviously didn't look, but I thought they had some good low level cold, although now that I think about it that was the 4-day Dec rain/ice storm. They avoided some big departures in that one but I guess not in the other rainers. BTV put up 5 consecutive days of departures between +20 and +24 in the middle of the month. That is a massive torch. Yet, I still think they will finish the month around -2. Yeah 5 straight of 20+ and then another 4 straight of 10+ departures (so 9 straight of 10+). There's only been 2 days this month inside of 5 degrees +/- . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 [ quote name=PolarVortex' timestamp='1390500528' post='2672937] The sharp cutoff was definitely under predicted by both models and by even seasoned mets using the model parameters to try and figure out the reality of the precip shield. In short, nobody predicted there to be a gradient where one went from 1-3" to 8-10" in less than 20 miles. And I don't think it was possible to predict that without the benefit of hindsight. The only thing I think was somewhat predictable (and I mentioned it that morning) was that west/north of I-495 and roughly near and NW of I-84 in CT would have a struggle to reach warning criteria snowfall...which certainly ended up verifying. There are usually very distinct model sigs for very sharp cutoffs and they weren't there in the past storm...that band ended up more intense than forecast and coupleed with the loss of mositure inflow, it created a higher cutoff near the northwest region of that banding than would have been otherwise. Will...I think I posted the GFS UVV and you guys probably had access to the Euro. I think they aligned and indicated very much that it was a have and have not situation. Particularly the late GFS nailed it pretty well but still blew on the QPF. There's no way you can predict it though, but we're mainly talking about putting your hands over your ears and eyes and denying that well W&N the trends were disturbing. I will go back to what I said about it snowing in the teens here. I never recall you getting buried or even Boston for that matter in those situations. In fact it's normally much worse with even less snow up that way. Boston was buried 1/2-3 with temps near 0. And I was near 32. You don't get blizzards in Boston when I'm at 16 degrees and snowing, 99% of the time. Well it happens regularly over the decades but not frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 We have had some wild swings this month. Liking this pattern. Loving the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Gibbs says hello and asks Ray to please stop the whining Worse yet. Pattern showing signs of blocking over the North Pole now, which can aid in cold longevity. Also, heading to a pattern of "storms and rumors of storms" starting Super Bowl weekend into following week. Old man winter has us by the neck and is going to squeeze even tighter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 HM first mentioned the possibility of this storm 2 weeks ago I believe in the MA thread. Looks like he still likes it. Correct, hes been discussing this time frame for quite some time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 images.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 It is looking more likely that here in Northern VT we will clear January without a big one as I have said. Instead nickle and dime clippers will have to do the trick. Hopefully we don't end up with another round of cutters in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I am not bullish on a big storm until several days into February at the earliest. We could sneak in a SWFE or something perhaps next weekend...or maybe a scraper for a light to moderate event. Going through all similar patterns, big storms were hard to find in the next 10 days. There's a ton of smaller events and even moderate events...but big ones are tough. There's a few exceptions so the chance isn't zero for a 12 incher. Early February 1975 was actually an analog that has started to pop up and there was a big interior snowstorm in that pattern. I am good with small to moderate. I think eventually we get a biggie, perhaps 2 or 3 the rest of the winter, especially where I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 A little meh on the cold today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 A little meh on the cold today. Not too bad out to be honest. Was going to mention it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Not too bad out to be honest. Was going to mention it16/-1 here, solid -12 day. Shows how cold it's been that this is meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Lol so now low- mid teens and wind is meh cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Lol so now low- mid teens and wind is meh cold? It's in the 20s E of I-495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Downslope dandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 A little meh on the cold today. Acclimation, dry Dps, no wind, perfect day to get out and enjoy winter at its fullest, great to see the kids on the hills bombing away this afternoon, joy has returned to Mudville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Acclimation, dry Dps, no wind, perfect day to get out and enjoy winter at its fullest, great to see the kids on the hills bombing away this afternoon, joy has returned to Mudville.Certainly windy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 16/-1 here, solid -12 day. Shows how cold it's been that this is meh True. I'm in the low 20s right now. Cold for sure, but nothing major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 16 or so here at WaWa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Yeah 5 straight of 20+ and then another 4 straight of 10+ departures (so 9 straight of 10+). There's only been 2 days this month inside of 5 degrees +/- . 18 of 22 days here have been at least 9F away from my avg, 9 each way. Today should be 10-12F below avg, tomorrow the same or colder. However, my average temp's slide toward cold ended yesterday (at daily mean of 11.8) and has begun the climb, slow at first, toward the end of snow season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Certainly windy here I am at work 5-10 mph highest gust 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Most ASOS stations have been 10 knots sustained WNW...good downslope wind. That's why there's like 8F difference between BOS and ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I am at work 5-10 mph highest gust 18 Remember, he's tickling jet level up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Well it's cold up here...not historic, but not meh. 11F with gusts to near 20mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I think you are underestimating zee sneakiness We were talking about the end of the month into early Feb as allowing the chance for something larger about the same time...but HM doesn't post here. At the time it "looked" like PV retro would allow for something as well as lower heights out west. It was just an overall view. Now, the pattern overall seems not to favor those events next week. However, if the PV rotates north as another s/w dives south and then SE across the southeast US..then things may get interesting. The euro ensembles show this feature. It's not really painting a big storm on the maps, but it has the euro op deal off the southeast coast next week and then something Friday into the weekend. I'm not hanging my hats onto this, but IMO this looked interesting to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 DSD ahead of reinforcing shot. It happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Remember, he's tickling jet level up there. Well it's 13.1 and winds have been gusting to 20..Not meh..and not warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 DSD ahead of reinforcing shot. It happens. You know its a cold airmass when a downslope dandy is still like a -14 or -15 departure for BOS. Tomorrow's cold will be more noticeable I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 We were talking about the end of the month into early Feb as allowing the chance for something larger about the same time...but HM doesn't post here. At the time it "looked" like PV retro would allow for something as well as lower heights out west. It was just an overall view. Now, the pattern overall seems not to favor those events next week. However, if the PV rotates north as another s/w dives south and then SE across the southeast US..then things may get interesting. The euro ensembles show this feature. It's not really painting a big storm on the maps, but it has the euro op deal off the southeast coast next week and then something Friday into the weekend. I'm not hanging my hats onto this, but IMO this looked interesting to me. I don't know...the more I look at the euro ensembles..the more interesting it seems. Maybe noting happens..but I thought it was interesting. If not Wednesday or Thursday...then maybe Friday or Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 the boys are crying for their Mommas in certain threads already around these parts, as Karen Carpenter once said, its only just begun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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