dryslot Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 That one on weds has more of a Miller 'A" look to it, Not very fond up here with those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Imagine what it could have been without that horrendous 8 day period... If we average -10 departures for the last 9 days it will erase in entirety all the warming days.. Thaws happen, the posts that said we finish above normal that were made in the middle of the thaw were just bad. In two days we have nearly erased the positive monthly departures and after today will have done so. at least here using BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 So the snow Saturday, Sunday night and MOnday aftn don't matter.I'm just with Ray in that at this point in the season I'm looking for more than pennies and nickels. Remember still haven't had a warning event at home and largest of the season is 6.5" over 36 hours. But hopefully we can get 2" a day during that time to at least avoid falling further behind...given the average right now is around 2" per day on hill. Hard to really gain ground on climo though in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I just don't see it as sneaky potential. It's 6-7 days out but the idea of something in that time period has been on the table for a few days now. Well for those that only look at something modeled...it just means that the timeframe holds potential. I know Will talked about this time yesterday being similar to what we went through regarding something sneaking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 That one on weds has more of a Miller 'A" look to it, Not very fond up here with those Let the north trend commence, Miller A's with a Pos NAO hug closer, you might like the end result. I am sure encylopediatric Will knows of some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Euro gives some snow to Cape Cod, MA next Wednesday. DGEX also has snow in SE MA during that time frame, haha. May have legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Let the north trend commence, Miller A's with a Pos NAO hug closer, you might like the end result. I am sure encylopediatric Will knows of some. We would need it close by as the like to bail NE when they hit this lat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Yes I'm sure a few elderly people feel the same. fantastic stretch, let's keep it going, what is your nuisance is my gain. Another Miller B in the pipeline, more deep cold, winter as it should be. You're alone . Says the three stooges who have all just finished digging out from plowable snows.... Shocking. 4th elderly stooge digging this wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I'm just with Ray in that at this point in the season I'm looking for more than pennies and nickels. Remember still haven't had a warning event at home and largest of the season is 6.5" over 36 hours. But hopefully we can get 2" a day during that time to at least avoid falling further behind...given the average right now is around 2" per day on hill. Hard to really gain ground on climo though in this pattern. How 'bout if we raised you to 4 inches every day for the next 45 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 BTV is going to finish the month below normal (and it won't be close) despite being like +4.5 on January through this past Monday. I'm surprised it was that far above normal. Haven't been checking departures much lately...figured we were already near normal on the month. It's been incredibly cold at times this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Well for those that only look at something modeled...it just means that the timeframe holds potential. I know Will talked about this time yesterday being similar to what we went through regarding something sneaking up. I'll agree that on the models, yes, it will appear sneaky. I just think the clipper Monday has a big hand in what occurs. If we can get that to phase earlier into the PV it should help in getting any system to come closer in to the coast by raising heights ahead of it. Just one piece of the puzzle but an important one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 How 'bout if we raised you to 4 inches every day for the next 45 days? Sign me up? That's like spring of 2007 territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I'm surprised it was that far above normal. Haven't been checking departures much lately...figured we were already near normal on the month. It's been incredibly cold at times this month. BTV put up 5 consecutive days of departures between +20 and +24 in the middle of the month. That is a massive torch. Yet, I still think they will finish the month around -2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 4th elderly stooge digging this wx. light as a feather , Major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The sharp cutoff was definitely under predicted by both models and by even seasoned mets using the model parameters to try and figure out the reality of the precip shield. In short, nobody predicted there to be a gradient where one went from 1-3" to 8-10" in less than 20 miles. And I don't think it was possible to predict that without the benefit of hindsight. The only thing I think was somewhat predictable (and I mentioned it that morning) was that west/north of I-495 and roughly near and NW of I-84 in CT would have a struggle to reach warning criteria snowfall...which certainly ended up verifying. There are usually very distinct model sigs for very sharp cutoffs and they weren't there in the past storm...that band ended up more intense than forecast and coupleed with the loss of mositure inflow, it created a higher cutoff near the northwest region of that banding than would have been otherwise. Will...I think I posted the GFS UVV and you guys probably had access to the Euro. I think they aligned and indicated very much that it was a have and have not situation. Particularly the late GFS nailed it pretty well but still blew on the QPF. There's no way you can predict it though, but we're mainly talking about putting your hands over your ears and eyes and denying that well W&N the trends were disturbing. I will go back to what I said about it snowing in the teens here. I never recall you getting buried or even Boston for that matter in those situations. In fact it's normally much worse with even less snow up that way. Boston was buried 1/2-3 with temps near 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 BTV put up 5 consecutive days of departures between +20 and +24 in the middle of the month. That is a massive torch. Yet, I still think they will finish the month around -2. Haha I had no idea....I obviously didn't look, but I thought they had some good low level cold, although now that I think about it that was the 4-day Dec rain/ice storm. They avoided some big departures in that one but I guess not in the other rainers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 If we average -10 departures for the last 9 days it will erase in entirety all the warming days.. Thaws happen, the posts that said we finish above normal that were made in the middle of the thaw were just bad. In two days we have nearly erased the positive monthly departures and after today will have done so. at least here using BDL. Yes but it doesn't erase the fact that it was above normal for 10 days and obliterated a lot of snow/didn't snow during the torch over most of new England esp. ski areas. The point was the swings we're going through, not overall monthly departures. I will put up the numbers from the first day I posted at month end, it's really cool to see the evolution of the swings this winter. And it's going to snow next Wednesday at least down here. The 30th is one of those dates all models have played with for a week. We are almost due for a CMC 950mb low to pop over buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 [ quote name=PolarVortex' timestamp='1390500528' post='2672937] The sharp cutoff was definitely under predicted by both models and by even seasoned mets using the model parameters to try and figure out the reality of the precip shield. In short, nobody predicted there to be a gradient where one went from 1-3" to 8-10" in less than 20 miles. And I don't think it was possible to predict that without the benefit of hindsight. The only thing I think was somewhat predictable (and I mentioned it that morning) was that west/north of I-495 and roughly near and NW of I-84 in CT would have a struggle to reach warning criteria snowfall...which certainly ended up verifying. There are usually very distinct model sigs for very sharp cutoffs and they weren't there in the past storm...that band ended up more intense than forecast and coupleed with the loss of mositure inflow, it created a higher cutoff near the northwest region of that banding than would have been otherwise. Will...I think I posted the GFS UVV and you guys probably had access to the Euro. I think they aligned and indicated very much that it was a have and have not situation. Particularly the late GFS nailed it pretty well but still blew on the QPF. There's no way you can predict it though, but we're mainly talking about putting your hands over your ears and eyes and denying that well W&N the trends were disturbing. I will go back to what I said about it snowing in the teens here. I never recall you getting buried or even Boston for that matter in those situations. In fact it's normally much worse with even less snow up that way. Boston was buried 1/2-3 with temps near 0. And I was near 32. You don't get blizzards in Boston when I'm at 16 degrees and snowing, 99% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I think most pros had been hinting on this, except for ctRain popping out of the blue back square alleyways shouting cutters for super bowl..... early feb looks active and coldish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 4th elderly stooge digging this wx. 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Like i said...sneaky potential through next weekend. I'll have my fingers crossed for another oe teabag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Euro gives some snow to Cape Cod, MA next Wednesday. I think next weekend for a biggie. Not wed-thurs. Better set up a more relaxed PV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I'll have my fingers crossed for another oe teabag. Well it wasn't directed at cstl peeps. Just in general through next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Well it wasn't directed at cstl peeps. Just in general through next weekend. Cape Cod, MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Like i said...sneaky potential through next weekend. Euro gives some snow to Cape Cod, MA next Wednesday. FWIW, HM is all over this one as well with regards to some big potential..He's been talking about it for a couple days...Either way, tons of wintry appeal in waves for early Feb...awesome stretch ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I think next weekend for a biggie. Not wed-thurs. Better set up a more relaxed PV? I am not bullish on a big storm until several days into February at the earliest. We could sneak in a SWFE or something perhaps next weekend...or maybe a scraper for a light to moderate event. Going through all similar patterns, big storms were hard to find in the next 10 days. There's a ton of smaller events and even moderate events...but big ones are tough. There's a few exceptions so the chance isn't zero for a 12 incher. Early February 1975 was actually an analog that has started to pop up and there was a big interior snowstorm in that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I just don't see it as sneaky potential. It's 6-7 days out but the idea of something in that time period has been on the table for a few days now. I think you are underestimating zee sneakiness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 FWIW, HM is all over this one as well with regards to some big potential..He's been talking about it for a couple days...Either way, tons of wintry appeal in waves for early Feb...awesome stretch ongoing. HM first mentioned the possibility of this storm 2 weeks ago I believe in the MA thread. Looks like he still likes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Gibbs says hello and asks Ray to please stop the whining Worse yet. Pattern showing signs of blocking over the North Pole now, which can aid in cold longevity. Also, heading to a pattern of "storms and rumors of storms" starting Super Bowl weekend into following week. Old man winter has us by the neck and is going to squeeze even tighter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 4th elderly stooge digging this wx. Fourth Stooge makes you Shemp. It's winter, may as well be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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