Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Online NOVA of Haiyan http://video.pbs.org/video/2365160389/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Online NOVA of Haiyan http://video.pbs.org/video/2365160389/ DVR'd it after you mentioned it... thanks for doing so. Did they have any of Josh's footage in there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Don't worry, Ray... this is coming... per the NYC thread... one of the most reliable on the board. Mikehobbyst, on 22 Jan 2014 - 6:19 PM, said: I have an eerie feeling between 1/28 and 2/1 we have a PV complete phase in with a southern stream impulse for a Miller B HECS, NESIS 4+ event. Something that could potentially bring 18-24 inches of snow to the NYC and LI area with 50 knot winds. Severe blizzard event. I am riding this out until I am proven wrong. I just have an extra sense feeling we will have 40-50 inch snow depths, drifts to ten + feet and temps below zero for a once in generation event to close out January for our immediate area. Pattern has the earmarks for something very special and extreme. Looks like the only way it will break or snap back to normal cold. Please consider the possibility being not impossible. Let's critique this post when the dust settles and revisit. welcome to age of entitlement.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Nice look for a snowstorm at hr 132 on gfs....in Savannah GA to myrtle beach SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Nice look for a snowstorm at hr 132 on gfs....in Savannah GA to myrtle beach SC. Dec 22, 1989 redux (I was there for it, pretty cool to see) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I think there is a possibility we get a Seems likely IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 True but when the models don't cut QPF to the S&E of where they have the "true" precip, IMO that's usually indicative that they're figuring out the best they can in their grid scales that there is going to be a real sharp cutoff. They did fairly well with the placement of the edge of the heavy. The trend NW of that was pretty undeniable those last few runs. The sharp cutoff was definitely under predicted by both models and by even seasoned mets using the model parameters to try and figure out the reality of the precip shield. In short, nobody predicted there to be a gradient where one went from 1-3" to 8-10" in less than 20 miles. And I don't think it was possible to predict that without the benefit of hindsight. The only thing I think was somewhat predictable (and I mentioned it that morning) was that west/north of I-495 and roughly near and NW of I-84 in CT would have a struggle to reach warning criteria snowfall...which certainly ended up verifying. There are usually very distinct model sigs for very sharp cutoffs and they weren't there in the past storm...that band ended up more intense than forecast and coupleed with the loss of mositure inflow, it created a higher cutoff near the northwest region of that banding than would have been otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 C'mon, that's not fair. He has an "extra sense feeling" ... I know I'm banking on 40-50 inch snow depths down here. Well, that won't be fun for the UES of Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 lol, This should make everyone feel much better http://weather.aol.com/2014/01/23/next-significant-northeast-snow-threat-to-occur-monday/?ncid=webmail2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The sharp cutoff was definitely under predicted by both models and by even seasoned mets using the model parameters to try and figure out the reality of the precip shield. In short, nobody predicted there to be a gradient where one went from 1-3" to 8-10" in less than 20 miles. And I don't think it was possible to predict that without the benefit of hindsight. The only thing I think was somewhat predictable (and I mentioned it that morning) was that west/north of I-495 and roughly near and NW of I-84 in CT would have a struggle to reach warning criteria snowfall...which certainly ended up verifying. There are usually very distinct model sigs for very sharp cutoffs and they weren't there in the past storm...that band ended up more intense than forecast and coupleed with the loss of mositure inflow, it created a higher cutoff near the northwest region of that banding than would have been otherwise. I thought the wide right hook/swing of the 5h vort would have been one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Ray, don't punt. Your time is coming. If not, feel free to throw a fastball at my fanny. This is by far the most upbeat and non-cautious you've ever been in the winter, lol. For good reason though, you're taking it home relative to average snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 This is by far the most upbeat and non-cautious you've ever been in the winter, lol. For good reason though, you're taking it home relative to average snowfall. lol, You have a different perspective on winter when you are looking out your window at white not brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I thought the wide right hook/swing of the 5h vort would have been one. No, that was def a reason to predict less (i.e under warning criteria) but it wasn't a smoking gun for a very sharp cutoff. You typically want to see a few things on the models for a very sharp cutoff: 1. Meso models showing very sharp qpf gradient (GFS almost never does this so you look to meso-models) 2. Very dry air in the lower mid-levels and sharp RH gradient. If you don't see the qpf cut-off, you want to see this which still might indicate it. 3. Strong arctic high to N/NW. Really none of these were present except sort of #3. Once we got late enough into the storm, then it started becoming more apparent. But there is a reason that not a single met or forecast painted 1-3" from Ray to ORH to HFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 This is by far the most upbeat and non-cautious you've ever been in the winter, lol. For good reason though, you're taking it home relative to average snowfall. I know it seems that way, but It's JMHO. I think Will and Ryan probably agree as well. I personally like the look going forward. For once we have all three sets of guidance looking rather nice. That's a boost to this guy's confidence. Maybe it doesn't shake out to be this incredible stretch, but I like the look through mid Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 DVR'd it after you mentioned it... thanks for doing so. Did they have any of Josh's footage in there? Looks like he is in it but they were talking about the evac of a hospital when they showed him. Nurse Josh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Scott, What are your thoughts? Cold and dry for the next 7-10 days? Cold and dry? No, I don't think it will be that dry for 10 days. You may pile on 5" by Monday aftn alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Gefs interesting for mom, though the members do favor cne and nne a bit more then sne....but a couple members develop a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Clipper is still a wide left miss for SNE, maybe an inch or two from the frontal passage. Right now it looks like rain for Saturday and Monday for the Cape and Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 And some were shut out and cried a lot less I was going to say that, the last storms a lot of folks got squat so but never said a word, there must be a hundred posts in the last few days from those who did well up to this last storm whining and complaining. Mean regression. like I said before its sometimes easy to see the difference in the board, you have the folks who enjoy winter and get out in it and you have the window watchers who enjoy the stuff as it falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The sharp cutoff was definitely under predicted by both models and by even seasoned mets using the model parameters to try and figure out the reality of the precip shield. In short, nobody predicted there to be a gradient where one went from 1-3" to 8-10" in less than 20 miles. And I don't think it was possible to predict that without the benefit of hindsight. The only thing I think was somewhat predictable (and I mentioned it that morning) was that west/north of I-495 and roughly near and NW of I-84 in CT would have a struggle to reach warning criteria snowfall...which certainly ended up verifying. There are usually very distinct model sigs for very sharp cutoffs and they weren't there in the past storm...that band ended up more intense than forecast and coupleed with the loss of mositure inflow, it created a higher cutoff near the northwest region of that banding than would have been otherwise. Will...I think I posted the GFS UVV and you guys probably had access to the Euro. I think they aligned and indicated very much that it was a have and have not situation. Particularly the late GFS nailed it pretty well but still blew on the QPF. There's no way you can predict it though, but we're mainly talking about putting your hands over your ears and eyes and denying that well W&N the trends were disturbing. I will go back to what I said about it snowing in the teens here. I never recall you getting buried or even Boston for that matter in those situations. In fact it's normally much worse with even less snow up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Gefs interesting for mom, though the members do favor cne and nne a bit more then sne....but a couple members develop a coastal. Mom?, lol I won't go there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Mom?, lol I won't go there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I will go back to what I said about it snowing in the teens here. I never recall you getting buried or even Boston for that matter in those situations. In fact it's normally much worse with even less snow up that way. 2005? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Bare frozen tundra in ALB. Ugly. It's been a rough January out this way. Apart from the long duration light snow event at the beginning of the month, there has been nothing of note. I think we've had about 4 hourly reports of moderate snow out of the 500+ hours so far this month. I hope things start changing for the better soon. 5 more weeks until climo goes south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Mom likes gefs members, esp the ones diving south...waaat? Im a terrible soul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Freaking cold, holy heck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Mom likes gefs members, esp the ones diving south...waaat? Im a terrible soul. Monday does seem more for NNE. Maybe an inch or two in WAA snows for some here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Yea...any new thoughts beyond monday? Can we get a decent one as the pv relaxes and splits a bit next weekend or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Monday does seem more for NNE. Maybe an inch or two in WAA snows for some here.euro keeps trending north. Won't be much here with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Euro sucked for monday up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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