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January 2014 Pattern Discussion Part II


Typhoon Tip

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Temps in the upper 20s is fine. Cold enough for snow but warm enough for routine daily functions.

Its cool to experience storms with single digit temps but when the windshield fluid is frozen and i need to stick my head out of the window like ace venturer pet detective, its not my idea of a good time.

:lmao:

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The whole met thing is getting twisted.

 

The QPF argument (at least if I understood it correctly) was aimed at those ripping and reading it and not applying raw meteorology like looking at mid level lows etc.  I know I said that. The reason why areas NW of the band got screwed was a band that seemed stronger than progged and therefore subsidence ruled the roost. That is always a risk, but honestly...I didn't see this as an issue where the snow cutoff was as sharp as it was. That surprised me a bit, but at the same time...I am not shocked it occurred.

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Kato speaks the truth

 

We need one big blanketing storm to cover everyone from the reindeer sweater folks, to the NY Yankee people, from the lobster shucking coastal Maine people, to the apple pickers in central Mass...surfers in S RI, NH syrup chuggers, Cambridge elbow patch smarties, God's country hippies, snow machine driving freaks, ice skating weirdos, skiing nuts

 

Snow makes everyone sing kumbaya...

 

I resemble that comment but I'm from CT...

 

exactly the high heat bills would be easier to take with a deep pack and some bigger events

 

I've always been the odd man out on cold.  I enjoy it whether there's snow or not but agree that it looks better with snow than without but I love cold weather just as much as snow.

 

You guys would hate the midwest.  They get lousy snow and brutal cold waves, usually with little snow to show for it.  My wife said it was awful growing up there.  You'd have bitter cold and wind with no snow on the ground.  She much prefers our climate.

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A little easier to take when you've known for a week that you had no chance.

 

NNE had quite the meltdown leading up to that RE the season in general.

 

Well, We got tripped up on the norlun, But the second one that was a non factor sure,That was my friends to the west not I that expressed their displeasure

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look people. it is winter. i had lots of snow and it got melted 2 times already and i was mad but i cant do nothing about what weather wants to do. what i can do is tell you a little bit what i am seeing before winter ends but not yet i will post later. now stop being stupid about the weather you cant change. why i am here. i dont even live here.

 

thank you

 

oh think if this guy and be happyer

 

62333_747936291913014_341690302_n.jpg

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I got rained on in the sutter that went through Chicago, didn't whine about that, Jeff.

 

Don't worry, Ray... this is coming... per the NYC thread... one of the most reliable on the board.

 

Mikehobbyst, on 22 Jan 2014 - 6:19 PM, said:snapback.png

 

 

I have an eerie feeling between 1/28 and 2/1 we have a PV complete phase in with a southern stream impulse for a Miller B HECS, NESIS 4+ event.  Something that could potentially bring 18-24 inches of snow to the NYC and LI area with 50 knot winds.  Severe blizzard event.  I am riding this out until I am proven wrong.  I just have an extra sense feeling we will have 40-50 inch snow depths, drifts to ten + feet and temps below zero for a once in generation event to close out January for our immediate area.  Pattern has the earmarks for something very special and extreme. Looks like the only way it will break or snap back to normal cold.  Please consider the possibility being not impossible.  Let's critique this post when the dust settles and revisit.

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Don't worry, Ray... this is coming... per the NYC thread... one of the most reliable on the board.

 

Mikehobbyst, on 22 Jan 2014 - 6:19 PM, said:snapback.png

 

 

I have an eerie feeling between 1/28 and 2/1 we have a PV complete phase in with a southern stream impulse for a Miller B HECS, NESIS 4+ event.  Something that could potentially bring 18-24 inches of snow to the NYC and LI area with 50 knot winds.  Severe blizzard event.  I am riding this out until I am proven wrong.  I just have an extra sense feeling we will have 40-50 inch snow depths, drifts to ten + feet and temps below zero for a once in generation event to close out January for our immediate area.  Pattern has the earmarks for something very special and extreme. Looks like the only way it will break or snap back to normal cold.  Please consider the possibility being not impossible.  Let's critique this post when the dust settles and revisit.

 

i like you. you are almost right 

 

thank you

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Don't worry, Ray... this is coming... per the NYC thread... one of the most reliable on the board.

 

Mikehobbyst, on 22 Jan 2014 - 6:19 PM, said:snapback.png

 

 

I have an eerie feeling between 1/28 and 2/1 we have a PV complete phase in with a southern stream impulse for a Miller B HECS, NESIS 4+ event.  Something that could potentially bring 18-24 inches of snow to the NYC and LI area with 50 knot winds.  Severe blizzard event.  I am riding this out until I am proven wrong.  I just have an extra sense feeling we will have 40-50 inch snow depths, drifts to ten + feet and temps below zero for a once in generation event to close out January for our immediate area.  Pattern has the earmarks for something very special and extreme. Looks like the only way it will break or snap back to normal cold.  Please consider the possibility being not impossible.  Let's critique this post when the dust settles and revisit.

 

 

lol, Looks like he slipped on the ice and hit his head

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The whole met thing is getting twisted.

 

The QPF argument (at least if I understood it correctly) was aimed at those ripping and reading it and not applying raw meteorology like looking at mid level lows etc.  I know I said that. The reason why areas NW of the band got screwed was a band that seemed stronger than progged and therefore subsidence ruled the roost. That is always a risk, but honestly...I didn't see this as an issue where the snow cutoff was as sharp as it was. That surprised me a bit, but at the same time...I am not shocked it occurred.

 

True but when the models don't cut QPF to the S&E of where they have the "true" precip, IMO that's usually indicative that they're figuring out the best they can in their grid scales that there is going to be a real sharp cutoff.    They did fairly well with the placement of the edge of the heavy.  The trend NW of that was pretty undeniable those last few runs.

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Don't worry, Ray... this is coming... per the NYC thread... one of the most reliable on the board.

Mikehobbyst, on 22 Jan 2014 - 6:19 PM, said:snapback.png

I have an eerie feeling between 1/28 and 2/1 we have a PV complete phase in with a southern stream impulse for a Miller B HECS, NESIS 4+ event. Something that could potentially bring 18-24 inches of snow to the NYC and LI area with 50 knot winds. Severe blizzard event. I am riding this out until I am proven wrong. I just have an extra sense feeling we will have 40-50 inch snow depths, drifts to ten + feet and temps below zero for a once in generation event to close out January for our immediate area. Pattern has the earmarks for something very special and extreme. Looks like the only way it will break or snap back to normal cold. Please consider the possibility being not impossible. Let's critique this post when the dust settles and revisit.

40-50 inch depths. Seems legit.
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True but when the models don't cut QPF to the S&E of where they have the "true" precip, IMO that's usually indicative that they're figuring out the best they can in their grid scales that there is going to be a real sharp cutoff.    They did fairly well with the placement of the edge of the heavy.  The trend NW of that was pretty undeniable those last few runs.

 

I know exactly what you're talking about and where you are coming from when you talk about QPF increasing or cutting back.

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