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January 2014 Pattern Discussion Part II


Typhoon Tip

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Will this cold snowy pattern end gradually within the next 2-3 weeks, or will a NESIS 5 storm likely end it and snap this pattern ?  Are there any signs of us getting into the 25-30 degree range on a steady basis after the two week pattern hardly making 20 for highs.  When is our next 40 ? When is our next cutter w/ rain. Is this 6-8 weeks away from happening ?  Just questions in my mind and to see if we have any chance of a mild up within the next four weeks, or no hope at all... Do any of you think we could have a 20 inch snowpack on the ground from 1/28 to 2/15 potentially ?  Are we in a 1 in 200 year type historical long duration freeze?  Once in a generation event unfolding right in front of us ?  I think we will shatter the following records between now and 2/28:  Longest subfreezing period since records began, for NYC might be upon us.  30-40 day subfreezing span looks likely from now till the last week in Feb as quite possible and viable with stable frigid pattern (-EPO, +PNA and P. Vortex parked in SE Canada for weeks on end..... I would love to have a summer with 65-70 highs with full sun. Would think after this coldest winter in many decades is over.  Spring may struggle 40-45 degree highs until Mid May. Back door season could be very brutal this spring.  I bet spring will be like March from April through Memorial Day, and this summer will be like early May weather at its worse.  It is just a feeling I have very strongly for this upcoming lack of warm season this year.  I bet our ocean water temps will be 15 degrees below normal for Spring and summer, meaning 40 degree water until late May and 55-60 degree water during the summer this year.  I bet this will happen... It just seems like we are in for a never before weather pattern that will taake us potentially into unchartered territory.  Mets is this maybe possible ?  This is definately a volcano responsible winter somehow, or some major force we have yet to learn ....

LOL

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I am beginning to think that the net 7-10 goes something like this:

 

little event Saturday.  

clipper sunday night monday is light-mod for cne-nne

dry and cold tues-fri

mod-heavy storm sat-mon

 

It seems like once the pv moves east and the ridge in the west deamplifies some that we get a more active southern stream and the chance for phasing with a clipper.  But I think this takes till at least next friday, if not the weekend.  I was originally thinking that a bigger storm might come thursday but I now think it will take longer.  What do you guys think?

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EC ensembles have gotten pretty cold at the end of their run....reload on the EPO...in fact it never entirely breaks down, but it does go through a bit of reshuffling.

 

 

Basically...no torches in the horizon. Any torch would be like a 1 day thing if we happened to get a storm to cut maybe in the first week of Feb.

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For Typhoon Tip...

 

John from today, morning on Friday should be even better.

 

I'm using G+ because I'm tired of having to delete old photos to make room for new ones.  Should be below and the link is here.  From now on that is where all the weather photos are going, if you want to see them all do the circle thing.

 

https://plus.google.com/photos/109949875358480896511/albums/5972081697105133025

 

seasmoke-3.jpg

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EC ensembles have gotten pretty cold at the end of their run....reload on the EPO...in fact it never entirely breaks down, but it does go through a bit of reshuffling.

 

 

Basically...no torches in the horizon. Any torch would be like a 1 day thing if we happened to get a storm to cut maybe in the first week of Feb.

What an outstanding winter.

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EC ensembles have gotten pretty cold at the end of their run....reload on the EPO...in fact it never entirely breaks down, but it does go through a bit of reshuffling.

Basically...no torches in the horizon. Any torch would be like a 1 day thing if we happened to get a storm to cut maybe in the first week of Feb.

Gefs mean looks good. When the pv retreats its blocked by the connected ak to Eurasia ridge (correct terminology?) reloads.... Then pushed back south. Much diff then past winters when the pv was mostly on the other side of the globe.
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BTW, sad day.  RIP Chet Curtis.  There are a few that will always be in my mind from the days when I had to use the upstairs VHS to tape a water vapor loop off the weather channel or local TV if I wanted to replay it. This is so far back doing slow mo replays involved a wired remote control and the replay wasn't clear it had those horizontal lines in it. Circa 80s and early 90s long before the web.  The legends I'll never forget, the Don Kents, Dick Alberts, Bob Copeland, Bruce Shoewgler, the two guys on WBZ radio during the 80s that I think were accuweather who had the cool voices, Mark Rosenthal (yes he was fun)....Copeland, Jack from BZ,  and of course Harv/Barry who are still in the field.

 

For all you young guys out there and by young I mean anyone under 35....enjoy every moment because the next thing you know you'll be sadly reading the obit for someone that was a part of your life every day.

 

http://www.wcvb.com/legendary-news-anchor-chet-curtis-dead/-/9849586/18078306/-/trch9w/-/index.html?absolute=true

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BTW, sad day. RIP Chet Curtis. There are a few that will always be in my mind from the days when I had to use the upstairs VHS to tape a water vapor loop off the weather channel or local TV if I wanted to replay it. This is so far back doing slow mo replays involved a wired remote control and the replay wasn't clear it had those horizontal lines in it. Circa 80s and early 90s long before the web. The legends I'll never forget, the Don Kents, Dick Alberts, Bob Copeland, Bruce Shoewgler, the two guys on WBZ radio during the 80s that I think were accuweather who had the cool voices, Mark Rosenthal (yes he was fun)....Copeland, Jack from BZ, and of course Harv/Barry who are still in the field.

For all you young guys out there and by young I mean anyone under 35....enjoy every moment because the next thing you know you'll be sadly reading the obit for someone that was a part of your life every day.

http://www.wcvb.com/legendary-news-anchor-chet-curtis-dead/-/9849586/18078306/-/trch9w/-/index.html?absolute=true

RIP

I spent half my life listening to "Chet and Nat".

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RIP

I spent half my life listening to "Chet and Nat".

 

When they split he left and went to NECN..or at least it seemed like that was the reason.  When you watch the original Anchorman it does remind me a little of network news around here in the 80s.   I remember the time during a sudden pending snowstorm Williams cut to Schwoegler in the weather room who had his back turned (that's when the captioned the guy in the little square box in the top corner first)...as they zoomed in he spun around and his pants were unzipped and unbuttoned and he burst out laughing but continued on.  Maybe that's where we got the term "pants off" when the storm looks good...ha.

 

Those were the days the weather chalk boards would get stuck, or when they transitioned to technology when suddenly the green screen would have a live shot of something totally irrelevant with weather maps drawn over it.  I don't know just seems so staged now.

 

I always got the impression during those years they were having fun.  Or they were all drunk...not sure which.

 

s/w looking beastly on the new NAM.

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When they split he left and went to NECN..or at least it seemed like that was the reason. When you watch the original Anchorman it does remind me a little of network news around here in the 80s. I remember the time during a sudden pending snowstorm Williams cut to Schwoegler in the weather room who had his back turned (that's when the captioned the guy in the little square box in the top corner first)...as they zoomed in he spun around and his pants were unzipped and unbuttoned and he burst out laughing but continued on. Maybe that's where we got the term "pants off" when the storm looks good...ha.

Those were the days the weather chalk boards would get stuck, or when they transitioned to technology when suddenly the green screen would have a live shot of something totally irrelevant with weather maps drawn over it. I don't know just seems so staged now.

I always got the impression during those years they were having fun. Or they were all drunk...not sure which.

s/w looking beastly on the new NAM.

My friend Christine ran some of the technical production back in the early 90's. She said it was a really fun crew to be around. Plenty of off camera antics.

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12z 84 hour NAM 996 MB . 6z 90 hour GFS 1008 MB , Bigger implications are for New England at this point .

 

Guy posted this in NYC , 

This is how our last system started . 500 MB looks so much better than it did 24 hours ago , and if think this is gona sharpen up and trend you`re way.

Dont fall asleep on this one . Good Luck . 

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12z 84 hour NAM 996 MB . 6z 90 hour GFS 1008 MB , Bigger implications are for New England at this point .

Guy posted this in NYC ,

This is how our last system started . 500 MB looks so much better than it did 24 hours ago , and if think this is gona sharpen up and trend you`re way.

Dont fall asleep on this one . Good Luck .

Like Scott said watch it but no model has popped it yet

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Second day in a row of hitting -20F or below, have not much use for this type of cold haha. Even the dog is like F-that in the morning.

 

 

Well you should be happy....you were complaining how it doesn't get cold there anymore. You got your wish.  :shiver:

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Well you should be happy....you were complaining how it doesn't get cold there anymore. You got your wish. :shiver:

Yeah I am pleased that the atmosphere still has it in it. It's been a long time since I've felt this type of cold, and now it's like the third outbreak. Should've known when we had the first below zero temps in November since 1989, that we may be in for a cold one.

2/-18, 0/-23, X/-20.... We'll see what today's high is but we are getting daily average temps of near -10F right now, lol. That's not departure but average ambient temperature.

I wish we could get a snowstorm though, but nickle and dime coming up. Even the AP is writing stories about VT having snow jealousy, as posted in the NNE thread. We are spoiled and want to be snowfall queens ;)

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/vt-lover-winter-snow-bemoans-southern-storms?utm_campaign=Lifestyles&utm_source=SocialFlow&utm_medium=Twitter

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