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January 2014 Pattern Discussion Part II


Typhoon Tip

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No garage, But it would be tough to fit 4 vehicles in one........lol

We built the garage in 2003 after a decent winter. We were sick of clearing off the cars.  We were asked by the builder if we wanted it 4' bigger in length and width and we said no...

 

...that was a mistake.  I wish we had. It would have added $5000, but would have been worth it

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What is the point of posting something like this at this range?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/next-significant-northeast-sno/22397585

 

I really seems that weather is being treated like a television event not to be missed now-a-days.  Any hype is good hype for some, I suppose.

 

 

 

 

"Scheduled" like that reliable 2:05 bus into Boston.  Very risky wording.

I'd like to schedule a blizzard for next Friday, do you have 1:30 available?

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We built the garage in 2003 after a decent winter. We were sick of clearing off the cars.  We were asked by the builder if we wanted it 4' bigger in length and width and we said no...

 

...that was a mistake.  I wish we had. It would have added $5000, but would have been worth it

 

Yeah, When it comes to garages, I don't think you can ever have one to big as long as you have the room and the funds

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Clipper deal next weak is actually an event where us in the southern tier would want the PV situated further S & E.  The system is going to want to phase with the PV.  Also the orientation of the PV will be critical on how this plays out.  If it's N/S than the further N the system can go.  More E/W and strung out than the system may be able to come a bit S.  I certainly don't expect much out of it but the C/NNE folks should be able to grab something out of it.

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as in "really interesting/this is another sneaking up on us/ might be moderate not light" kinda thing?  I mean how much potential can it have with no low pressure, just a strong sw flow?  what would be the mechanism?

 

 

Briefly the lapse rates get decent on Sat afternoon...and there's good WAA aloft. So we could see some bursts of moderate snow. However, the whole system is fairly starved of moisture. Low level moisture isn't very good. If that increases as we get closer, than maybe some people could pull off spot advisory amounts.

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Anyone have any long term thoughts for the end of next week?  I've got an important flight with tight connections and the pattern looks stormy.  Should I look into rescheduling or giving myself an extra day?

Congrats to those who got a nice snowstorm last night.  I ended up with .3" of powder.

On the bright side my snowpack survived the week long warm spell and I haven't seen the grass, except for one spot near my septic tank, since December 16th.

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yeah, pretty much all oper. guidance have a reflection of a D5 clipper low to impact the area ...even the NAVGEM, and as usual, the GGEM and Euro are on the left/west side of the envelope ... but what makes this interesting is that the air mass is so cold with limited to no time for moderation (enough) that we end up with polar warm sector in those westerly solutions.  

 

It would mean the difference between snow squalls as cfropa took place, or a more strata-form deal with low redeveloping S ..depending which succeeds.  The 12z GFS was slightly left of its prior runs, so it may very well end up that way. 

 

One thing this season has demoed ...elaborately, is that determinism is harder to come by.   This may be our next bona fide event, albeit light to moderate, and keeping with that seasonal trend, ..subject to change. 

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