Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Perhaps you should have added that in the original post? perhaps you should look at a model run once in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Holy crap on the cold. seriously I know some will balk at this but look at Feb 1934 numbers and GFS gridded data, holy heck. I'd want to see 850 temps of at least -30c before talking historic cold. Its damned cold no doubt and some daily records might be in jeopardy, but not enough to rival months like Feb '34. At least as of now. I think the duration is more imrpessive than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 perhaps you should look at a model run once in a while I look at all model runs..Probably more than you.perhaps you should apologize..and see if I'll even accept Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 If it follows all the other ones this year so far, I can see where this one could tick south as we get closer in The last few have been ticking NW in this time frame...give it a few more days to go NW then tick back SE in the last 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I'd want to see 850 temps of at least -30c before talking historic cold. Its damned cold no doubt and some daily records might be in jeopardy, but not enough to rival months like Feb '34. At least as of now. I think the duration is more imrpessive than anything else. Its pretty darn impressive already... -23F here last night, and I was right on the edge of ridiculous cold vs. meh cold. -35F in the Saint Lawrence Valley this morning and -29F just north of here. I'm all set with these temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The last few have been ticking NW in this time frame...give it a few more days to go NW then tick back SE in the last 36 hours Well in this case it probably would not matter much unless it goes 200 miles south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I said looks good for NNE. I didn't say no snow for SNE. Make sure to include every location in every post to cover your bases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 We don't need record arctic cold let someone out west have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I'd want to see 850 temps of at least -30c before talking historic cold. Its damned cold no doubt and some daily records might be in jeopardy, but not enough to rival months like Feb '34. At least as of now. I think the duration is more imrpessive than anything else. lowest OKX 850 radiosonde on record since 1949 in late Jan early Feb is -24. the duration is definitely there, will see how the radiational cooling nights work out. not saying its as historic but certainly a top ranking period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I look at all model runs..Probably more than you.perhaps you should apologize..and see if I'll even accept then you knew the answer to your own question to Scooter seeing as he was analyzing the GFS. Never say sorry for the things you mean, knock knock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 We don't need record arctic cold let someone out west have it Exactly. We need this type of pattern on the fantasy range.... haha I'm still waiting for these storms to start tracking into Boston Harbor. I've been liking the long range in seeing that PV going westward. Not verbatim by any means but I'll come down there and give Coastal a high-five if he's right on the PV retrograding west in February to open the door for some closer tracks. He's been on that for a while now. Instead of like SE of the benchmark, we need some good Canal trackers now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Holy crap on the cold. seriously I know some will balk at this but look at Feb 1934 numbers and GFS gridded data, holy heck. Feb 1934 would be sweet temp-wise. Any good snows in that month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 We'll have to wait until February most likely to see more storm tracks closer...at least for major coastals. I checked out all the analog dates for D8-11 and they are littered with advisory events in SNE...there were a few coastal storms, but no KUs and they favored eastern areas. Lots of clippers and advisory type snows in this pattern...and some of those can blow up into those 4-7" type events if they take the right track. Major storms that affect larger chunks of the northeast with ptype issues getting involved? Not until at least early Feb IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 well that is always the fear for us northerners....suppression depression. Does the PV retro only or does it split or elongate. My hope is that somehow we begin to see some ridging expand into some kind of -NAO even if east-based. We do well up here with east based I think. But the thought of an Alaskan ridge with the PV nearby but retroed enough to pull storms up to New England is a salivator. Epicosity seems to be upon us. I think you are not done with your run of cold double-digit storms. In the Mid Atlantic, Philly is already above 30, they could double that. We are at 45 and we WILL double that by mid February. There will be a KU this year I think. You may have troughs dive into the Rockies with a setup like that and possible SWFE. It's a weird pattern. It's a ridge-trough-ridge pattern going from near western AK onto the West coast of the US. The trough axis would be far enough west to bring NNE into the picture I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Exactly. We need this type of pattern on the fantasy range.... haha I'm still waiting for these storms to start tracking into Boston Harbor. I've been liking the long range in seeing that PV going westward. Not verbatim by any means but I'll come down there and give Coastal a high-five if he's right on the PV retrograding west in February to open the door for some closer tracks. He's been on that for a while now. Instead of like SE of the benchmark, we need some good Canal trackers now. Inside the BM, Ack or the Canal with this cold air in place all work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 We'll have to wait until February most likely to see more storm tracks closer...at least for major coastals. I checked out all the analog dates for D8-11 and they are littered with advisory events in SNE...there were a few coastal storms, but no KUs and they favored eastern areas. Lots of clippers and advisory type snows in this pattern...and some of those can blow up into those 4-7" type events if they take the right track. Major storms that affect larger chunks of the northeast with ptype issues getting involved? Not until at least early Feb IMHO. That would be fine... Make it so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 We'll have to wait until February most likely to see more storm tracks closer...at least for major coastals. I checked out all the analog dates for D8-11 and they are littered with advisory events in SNE...there were a few coastal storms, but no KUs and they favored eastern areas. Lots of clippers and advisory type snows in this pattern...and some of those can blow up into those 4-7" type events if they take the right track. Major storms that affect larger chunks of the northeast with ptype issues getting involved? Not until at least early Feb IMHO. It does look like the trough axis may retro far enough west to allow that as we start Feb....perhaps larger events that is. You can see that mean high pressure anchored NW of us. I would guess that hints at some LPs trying to flirt nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Sat and Mon look fine of the GFS... I will take some nickles and a dime here and there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 We'll have to wait until February most likely to see more storm tracks closer...at least for major coastals. I checked out all the analog dates for D8-11 and they are littered with advisory events in SNE...there were a few coastal storms, but no KUs and they favored eastern areas. Lots of clippers and advisory type snows in this pattern...and some of those can blow up into those 4-7" type events if they take the right track. Major storms that affect larger chunks of the northeast with ptype issues getting involved? Not until at least early Feb IMHO. Powderfreak wanting coastal rainers cancel for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Sat and Mon look fine of the GFS... I will take some nickles and a dime here and there Most folks would. Stack the pack baby..stack the pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Feb 1934 would be sweet temp-wise. Any good snows in that month? There were three major storms: February 1st-2nd, 19th-20th, and 25th-26th. The one on the 19th - 20th is the most famous as the barometer fell to 28.73" on Block Island, resulting in howling northeast winds. It put down even heavier amounts in Connecticut (generally in excess of 20 inches along the south coast), save for extreme SE New London County which had a changeover to rain...as Groton measured but 3 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 dead sea museum scrolls from Feb 1934 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 It does look like the trough axis may retro far enough west to allow that as we start Feb....perhaps larger events that is. You can see that mean high pressure anchored NW of us. I would guess that hints at some LPs trying to flirt nearby. Yeah if you rolled the D11 analogs forward a few days, then it looked like potential for more inland tracks and/or messier storms. We'll see how it looks in another day or two. Up through D11 though there were like no storms that tracked close enough for messy ptypes...one exception was 1/26/88...which tracked over like ACK/CHH. That gets us to around Feb 1-2...it looks like a weak SE ridge might start developing after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Long range GFS looks very tasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 dead sea museum scrolls from Feb 1934 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Knock knock who is there? jack jack who Jack not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Yeah if you rolled the D11 analogs forward a few days, then it looked like potential for more inland tracks and/or messier storms. We'll see how it looks in another day or two. Up through D11 though there were like no storms that tracked close enough for messy ptypes...one exception was 1/26/88...which tracked over like ACK/CHH. That gets us to around Feb 1-2...it looks like a weak SE ridge might start developing after that. Hopefully some surprise sneaky events over the next 12 days or so. The QPF Queens may worry unless something is modeled 10 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Powderfreak wanting coastal rainers cancel for now I don't want coastal rainers... just a surface low track along the coast You've had a good snow year, share the wealth, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Yeah if you rolled the D11 analogs forward a few days, then it looked like potential for more inland tracks and/or messier storms. We'll see how it looks in another day or two. Up through D11 though there were like no storms that tracked close enough for messy ptypes...one exception was 1/26/88...which tracked over like ACK/CHH. That gets us to around Feb 1-2...it looks like a weak SE ridge might start developing after that. Yeah that's when I'm hopeful for some synoptic action... after Feb 1st. I like the progged trough axis. I knew this end of January run would likely be too far SE... the trough axis was never there for us up here aside from clipper or windex type situations. Thus the punt on January a while back for anything significant (ie. a true warning event). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I don't want coastal rainers... just a surface low track along the coast You've had a good snow year, share the wealth, haha. It's been decent sure.. but we don't want to add coastal rainstorms for those folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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