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January 2014 Pattern Discussion Part II


Typhoon Tip

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What you think for Saturday?

Meh for Saturday but sometimes these waa bursts can surprise. The problem is this system won't have much moisture to work with and the parent low is so far removed. It's like we've been yanked to the Yukon with an arctic low moving by well to the north.

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Meh for Saturday but sometimes these waa bursts can surprise. The problem is this system won't have much moisture to work with and the parent low is so far removed. It's like we've been yanked to the Yukon with an arctic low moving by well to the north.

Pretty strong burst of WAA over a cold arctic dome ..RH looks high on the GFS/...could see a nice 1-3

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Quote from the HPC overnight med range.  What does this imply for us?

 

THE 21/12Z MODEL CYCLE SHOWED REMARKABLE AGREEMENT AND
LIMITED SPREAD WITH THE BREAKDOWN AND SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST ON DAY 6. BY DAY 7...THE
EC...GEFS AND NAEFS DE-AMPLIFY THE RIDGE AND SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS
ABOUT 7 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THE AMPLITUDE
OF THE DOWNSTREAM TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND
EASTERN CANADA HEADING INTO THE DAY+ 8 PERIOD.

 

Deamplifying somewhat would be bad or good in this set up?

 

Great discussion from HPC overnight.  I like this guy Vojtesak, he puts in a lot of detail and 

"thinks out loud" sometimes in his discussions.

 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

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Saturday is intriguing. Soundings aren't very impressive verbatim, but cold aloft with strong WAA at the surface and good s/w moving through argue for a decent band of snow along the front. Look how it blows up east of the Cape. 

Yeah there's going to be some WTF's and surprises on Saturday when we're shoveling and plowing again.

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