mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wow! What a great 12z GFS run! It's a constant Miller B parade of storms. Deep winter. really? when is the next storm? I thought we were done thru the weekend and then stormy next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So there is no question storms come in the longer range. The block will still be there, but it retrogrades enough to pop a -PNA. We have to keep an eye on that because you play with fire with a -PNA in Feb. On one hand, it should be active and I think this will be when NNE gets action. We probably will have our share too...but the -PNA makes ptype a little more precarious. The good thing is that we have the PV in Canada thanks to the block so we should have money in the bank. Looks similar to this past December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm not going to bother looking at 10-15 day op runs. I think that's what had some of you thinking January was all Leon all the time. Remember when everything was going to change by 1/15 or 17? Still a torch those daysmost of us said the 18th dude,also everyone said a thaw was coming, you stay on that end of month thaw, good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 When are the next snow events on the Euro after Tues/Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 When are the next snow events on the Euro after Tues/Wed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wanted to know..since Jerry said Euro was very snowy thru day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wow euro is pretty dam cold in the longer range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 most of us said the 18th dude,also everyone said a thaw was coming, you stay on that end of month thaw, good luck. I said "relaxing". That's been the term used for this 10 day period of temps not as cold as those prior. This entire period was downplayed in terms of how warm it was going to be. We don't thaw any longer we "relax" It may be delayed but there will be another period of relaxing heights and temps either at the end of the month or early February. Again 10-11 day op runs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wow euro is pretty dam cold in the longer range. I think we are done with torches for a while. Still looking -PNA eventually? That will introduce mixing issues but wouldn't ruin the party. And wouldn't a -PNA create a better chance for a mid Feb -NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wow euro is pretty dam cold in the longer range. Another E MA special for D8-9 on today's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Another E MA special for D8-9 on today's run. That would imply that was already an E Ma special before that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 That would imply that was already an E Ma special before that one Yes, tomorrow's storm is an E MA special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I think we are done with torches for a while. Still looking -PNA eventually? That will introduce mixing issues but wouldn't ruin the party. And wouldn't a -PNA create a better chance for a mid Feb -NAO? I think so, but with the block...it's not a real torch pattern...at least the way it appears to me. It might bode well for storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I think so, but with the block...it's not a real torch pattern...at least the way it appears to me. It might bode well for storminess. delayed but not denied on our -PNA and -NAO maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I think so, but with the block...it's not a real torch pattern...at least the way it appears to me. It might bode well for storminess. Looks around average. Temp anomalies at 8h go from below to sharply below next ten days to around average or slightly above days 10-15 in the gefs. No torch evident yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yes, tomorrow's storm is an E MA special.When the entire region sees 6-12? Don't agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I said "relaxing". That's been the term used for this 10 day period of temps not as cold as those prior. This entire period was downplayed in terms of how warm it was going to be. We don't thaw any longer we "relax" It may be delayed but there will be another period of relaxing heights and temps either at the end of the month or early February. Again 10-11 day op runs.... I don't know of anyone who down played it. But it's ovah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 When the entire region sees 6-12? Don't agree That isn't going to happen. NW half of SNE is going to have trouble getting over 4 or 5 inches I think. The highest amounts are favored in E MA and RI, SE CT. regardless though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 That isn't going to happen. NW half of SNE is going to have trouble getting over 4 or 5 inches I think. The highest amounts are favored in E MA and RI, SE CT. regardless though. We disagree then. 8 inch amounts IMO reach MPM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 That isn't going to happen. NW half of SNE is going to have trouble getting over 4 or 5 inches I think. The highest amounts are favored in E MA and RI, SE CT. regardless though. There really shouldn't be any question that this favors Ginxy to Boston and SE...this storm and the pattern in general. Hopefully we can see the trough retrograde a bit and put some of these lows in Boston Harbor in the long range, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 We disagree then. 8 inch amounts IMO reach MPM Not holding back today huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The weather looks like it could be very interesting for the Super Bowl this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I don't know of anyone who down played it. But it's ovah. If we get ten straight days of below like we just torched I will be impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 OES potential on the models at 7-9 days from now...may finally get that ideal prolific type setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Anyone notice the 18z GFS almost literally repeats this week, next week? I actually thought I was looking at an old run for this week, lol. Groundhog day type run. So next weekend Sat night/Sun/Sun night has this strong clipper/arctic front/upslope fluff storm for NNE... very similar to what just happened up here. Then a couple days later, SNE has a coastal opportunity about the same exact time as this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nah. Dry the rest of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Cweat, many of the positive departures are only +1... in essence negligible, and this skews the point you are trying to make a bit. Go for a count of days with departures more than 5 degrees in either direction for a more accurate idea of torches or cold outbreaks. Obviously at the end of a thaw there will be more positive departures recently just as there would be more negatives at the end of a cold snap. Either way, definitely the winter pattern overall has been cold/warm spells but net of it is below normal with the -epo being persistent and running the show with thaw when it relaxes and reloads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Cweat, many of the positive departures are only +1... in essence negligible, and this skews the point you are trying to make a bit. Go for a count of days with departures more than 5 degrees in either direction for a more accurate idea of torches or cold outbreaks. Obviously at the end of a thaw there will be more positive departures recently just as there would be more negatives at the end of a cold snap. Either way, definitely the winter pattern overall has been cold/warm spells but net of it is below normal with the -epo being persistent and running the show with thaw when it relaxes and reloads. If we use +5 or -5 it's still 15 to 8 on the warmer side. These last 30 days have been predominantly warmer vs colder and the end result of all the days totaled together is a +73 or about +2.28 per day. As a running tally these last 30 days since the holiday break haven't been very "cold". In a week or two it'll feel like we've been in the icebox for a month which was the larger point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 By the end of January we will have averaged a nice cool Dec and Jan as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 By the end of January we will have averaged a nice cool Dec and Jan as a whole.And Nov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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