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January 2014 Pattern Discussion Part II


Typhoon Tip

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I'm starting actually to back off my own optimism for this pattern as it seems like every successive run just falls back into a characterization of a big dominating N stream gyre that compresses the flow too much for its shear depth... rolling impulses ineffectually around its periphery.  Yesterday's snow event was not really a part of that discussion, either, as the cold vortex pattern has yet to evolve.   So it was what it was...   

 

I am wondering also if the extended range GFS idea of relaxing the flow and ending the era of absurdly powerful SPVs might be an interesting paradigm.  Should that succeed we would likely entering a model behavior where warm systems in the various extended depictions "get" colder as they enter nearer time frames.  Wetter too 

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moot point.  they'll reschedule if there's a big snow

I heard they couldn't move it around that easily due to the timing of people being in the area and the expense.  Meaning there's so much invested in that particular date it's not like thousands of people can change plans, hotel rooms etc.  Not to mention the logistics of all of the other stuff around the event.

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Just to add in yesterday at +7 which was the 8th day in a row with significant positive departures in Boston.  That makes

20 of the last 31 days above normal which comes to an end today.

 

 

12/18   -6

12/19   1

12/20    9

12/21    15

12/22    12

12/23    5

12/24    2

12/25   -10

12/26     -3

12/27    1

12/28    7

12/29    8

12/30    1

12/31  -10

1/1      -6

1/2      -16

1/3      -22

1/4      -15

1/5      1

1/6      14

1/7     -10

1/8     -14

1/9     -4

1/10   -1

1/11   18

1/12   17

1/13   12

1/14   18

1/15   13

1/16   7

1/17   12

1/18    7

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I heard they couldn't move it around that easily due to the timing of people being in the area and the expense.  Meaning there's so much invested in that particular date it's not like thousands of people can change plans, hotel rooms etc.  Not to mention the logistics of all of the other stuff around the event.[/quote

No Monday 2/3 is definitely their backup plan in a worse case scenario.

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