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January Banter Banter Thread Part2


H2O

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Weather 101 question:

 

When I peer at a map, what constitutes "confluence"? I am watching the current GFS run unfold, and HM is happy about the increased "confluence". Is that something associated with the H pressing in?

It's the reason for the high pressing in.  You can see confluence on a 500mb map by looking at the way the height lines bunch together.  This helps strengthen surface high pressures and helps keep the storm track south.  Didn't work so well on todays 12z GFS though.  

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It's the reason for the high pressing in.  You can see confluence on a 500mb map by looking at the way the height lines bunch together.  This helps strengthen surface high pressures and helps keep the storm track south.  Didn't work so well on todays 12z GFS though.  

 

Thanks so much, will go back and look at that on that run.

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Weather 101 question:

 

When I peer at a map, what constitutes "confluence"? I am watching the current GFS run unfold, and HM is happy about the increased "confluence". Is that something associated with the H pressing in?

 

This should help. It's not a current panel. I grabbed it off a blog somewhere but it shows what we look for. 

 

post-2035-0-47785000-1391014151_thumb.jp

 

Tightly packed isobars running east west indicated cold surface high pressure and it also acts like a wall that keeps energy from cutting north quickly. We need this for storms to stay below us.

 

Different things help us with confluence to the north so storms don't cut. Ridging over greenland or a 50/50 low over the maritimes. The PV can act as a 50/50,

 

 

I always look at h5 as vorts are ejecting the rockies and entering the plains. You can get an idea where they are going well in advance. The biggest wildcard with next week's system is how strong it's going to be in the plains. We have confluence on all the runs  but it's not super strong and there is no classic -nao in place to fight it.

 

Confluence wins the battle with a weaker storm and a stronger storm punches the confluence in the face. We have no idea exactly where the PV will be come next week. On the 12z gfs the storm is strong and the pv pushes NE as times go. But there is ridging over greenland. 

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This should help. It's not a current panel. I grabbed it off a blog somewhere but it shows what we look for. 

 

attachicon.gifconfluence.JPG

 

Tightly packed isobars running east west indicated cold surface high pressure and it also acts like a wall that keeps energy from cutting north quickly. We need this for storms to stay below us.

 

Different things help us with confluence to the north so storms don't cut. Ridging over greenland or a 50/50 low over the maritimes. The PV can act as a 50/50,

 

 

I always look at h5 as vorts are ejecting the rockies and entering the plains. You can get an idea where they are going well in advance. The biggest wildcard with next week's system is how strong it's going to be in the plains. We have confluence on all the runs  but it's not super strong and there is no classic -nao in place to fight it.

 

Confluence wins the battle with a weaker storm and a stronger storm punches the confluence in the face. We have no idea exactly where the PV will be come next week. On the 12z gfs the storm is strong and the pv pushes NE as times go. But there is ridging over greenland. 

models always seem to want to break down patterns well before they actually do so my weenie hope is the PV will be stronger as we move forward in time.  I'm hoping the PV will be a 18 yr old Mike Tyson and not the one facing Buster Douglas.

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Assuming cutter and wet on Saturday, and if the next wave after that is nothing to an inch on Monday followed by a cutter mid-week next week, there will be a LOT of hopes pinned on that Day 10 storm that the models are advertising. I look forward to the board angst.

 

I look at it differently. I'm looking forward to a couple warmer than normal days. Time for some outdoors stuff. Monday is bonus. Wednesday is messy but fun if we get to track and guess how temps play out. Next weekend is a pipe dream and if it busts we're not done yet this year it appears. 

 

See? Easy peezy

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Governor of GA trying to deflect blame to the National Weather Service--- it's pretty cool to watch the OCM's from the Weather Channel offering a passionate defense of the NWS. (Winter Storm Warning was issued for south Atlanta metro Monday night, and the entire Atlanta metro region at 3:38 am on Tuesday.) Cantore was pissed and said that the officials should just say "We blew it!" on taking the chance on the forecast busting. 

 

http://www.weather.com/news/georgia-gov-nathan-deal-winter-storm-atlanta-20140129

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Governor of GA trying to deflect blame to the National Weather Service--- it's pretty cool to watch the OCM's from the Weather Channel offering a passionate defense of the NWS. (Winter Storm Warning was issued for south Atlanta metro Monday night, and the entire Atlanta metro region at 3:38 am on Tuesday.) Cantore was pissed and said that the officials should just say "We blew it!" on taking the chance on the forecast busting. 

 

http://www.weather.com/news/georgia-gov-nathan-deal-winter-storm-atlanta-20140129

Atlanta played the climo card and lost

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Governor of GA trying to deflect blame to the National Weather Service--- it's pretty cool to watch the OCM's from the Weather Channel offering a passionate defense of the NWS. (Winter Storm Warning was issued for south Atlanta metro Monday night, and the entire Atlanta metro region at 3:38 am on Tuesday.) Cantore was pissed and said that the officials should just say "We blew it!" on taking the chance on the forecast busting. 

 

http://www.weather.com/news/georgia-gov-nathan-deal-winter-storm-atlanta-20140129

 

I clicked the video and couldn't get past how crazy hot that dude doing the intro and outro was.

 

and lol @ ATL officials.  

 

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