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2/13-2/19 Potential To Make NYC Coldest Weeks Of 2000's List


bluewave

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NYC keeps underperforming on low temperatures despite 850s of -20C or colder, very disappointing. You have to wonder how Central Park ever gets below 0F if it can't be done with 850s of -25C and heavy snow cover. Even in January 2009, we had a low of 6F despite 850s of -24C.

 

It's  really the same story for other locations around the region that rely on CAA with the winds staying up to set record low 

temperatures. A place like Long Beach that doesn't radiate well hasn't been at zero since January 1994. While this January

has been cold, it still can't compare to the record cold of 2004 or 1994 here. Places that radiate well have more flexibility

to set record lows since the snow storms this month coincided with the Arctic outbreaks. Also notice that this was the

a rare January with such a stark warm 10 days between NYC single digits early in the month and late in the month. 

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NYC keeps underperforming on low temperatures despite 850s of -20C or colder, very disappointing. You have to wonder how Central Park ever gets below 0F if it can't be done with 850s of -25C and heavy snow cover. Even in January 2009, we had a low of 6F despite 850s of -24C.

 

I mean, I don't think it's even possible at this point which is crazy.

 

Last week we had a good 11-12" snow cover, north winds, and it only got down to 7.  I don't know what it takes.

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It's  really the same story for other locations around the region that rely on CAA with the winds staying up to set record low 

temperatures. A place like Long Beach that doesn't radiate well hasn't been at zero since January 1994. While this January

has been cold, it still can't compare to the record cold of 2004 or 1994 here. Places that radiate well have more flexibility

to set record lows since the snow storms this month coincided with the Arctic outbreaks. Also notice that this was the

a rare January with such a stark warm 10 days between NYC single digits early in the month and late in the month. 

I think we came close to zero with the early January outbreak. Didn't JFK get down to 3 one night?

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I mean, I don't think it's even possible at this point which is crazy.

 

Last week we had a good 11-12" snow cover, north winds, and it only got down to 7.  I don't know what it takes.

The problem is the periods of north winds and snow cover aren't coinciding with the coldest 850s. Last week, 850s were only in the -20C range which isn't cold enough for NYC to get below 0F.

 

When we had the coldest 850s in the first week of January (that brutal Tuesday), the timing was poor to go below 0F as the cold core arrived between sunrise and sunset, not during the nighttime hours. Furthermore, we had no snow cover. I think Central Park got down to 4F.

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I think we came close to zero with the early January outbreak. Didn't JFK get down to 3 one night?

 

Yes, JFK made it to 3 which was the coldest since 2004 when it went down to 1. The last JFK 0 was 1994

and the last below zero was -2 in 1985.

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today was the 10th day in a row with a minimum of 25 or lower in Central Park...It could reach 11 tomorrow...The streak will end probably over the weekend...The streak doesn't come close to the longest streaks since 1948...

amount/year...

21 in 1981-82

21 in 1947-48

20 in 1976-77

20 in 1978-79

19 in 1967-68

18 in 1977-78

17 in 1969-70

17 in 1980-81

16 in 1989-90

16 in 1960-61

15 in 2002-03

15 in 2003-04...(27 days 26 or lower)

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It's possible that NYC could still get closer to 0 than it has so far this January in the future with a perfectly timed strong

CAA event where the winds stay up. But for 1934 or 1800's type cold we would probably need something like

a VEI 8 or some other major event which causes significant cooling. But even in those times, dipping below

-10 at NYC was still a very rare event.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_eruption

Nice post!

I think ve8 is a little much though. That dropped global temps as much as 10-15c for 3 years (toba). That would lead to temps outside the tropics being as much as 20c colder then normal. I think something more like tamboura (year without a summer) would get us there. Unfortunately that one is just before reliable regular temp data in cpk. But snow in vt in the summer leads me we would have no problem going well below zero in a winter after something like that.

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Nice post!

I think ve8 is a little much though. That dropped global temps as much as 10-15c for 3 years (toba). That would lead to temps outside the tropics being as much as 20c colder then normal. I think something more like tamboura (year without a summer) would get us there. Unfortunately that one is just before reliable regular temp data in cpk. But snow in vt in the summer leads me we would have no problem going well below zero in a winter after something like that.

 

Though before there was an official station; during the winter of 1816-1817, there were reports of NYC getting down to -26F.

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Though before there was an official station; during the winter of 1816-1817, there were reports of NYC getting down to -26F.

 

That was probably areas to the north and west since the February 1934 -15 may have been the coldest since the winter on 1780 in NYC.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/1996/02/06/nyregion/but-what-about-february-9-1934.html

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That was probably areas to the north and west since the February 1934 -15 may have been the coldest since the winter on 1780 in NYC.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/1996/02/06/nyregion/but-what-about-february-9-1934.html

 

Could of been. This is off Wikipedia, have to check sources to see if it's legit. Based on the freezing of the bays I think it at least got down to around -20F.

 

In New York City, the temperature dropped to −26 °F (−32 °C) during the bitter winter of 1816-17. This resulted in a freezing of New York's Upper Bay deep enough for horse-drawn sleighs to be driven across Buttermilk Channel from Brooklyn to Governors Island.[10] At the New Lebanon, New York Church Family of Shakers, Nicholas Bennet wrote in May 1816 that “all was froze” and the hills were "barren like winter."

 

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today was the 10th day in a row with a minimum of 25 or lower in Central Park...It could reach 11 tomorrow...The streak will end probably over the weekend...The streak doesn't come close to the longest streaks since 1948...

amount/year...

21 in 1981-82

21 in 1947-48

20 in 1976-77

20 in 1978-79

19 in 1967-68

18 in 1977-78

17 in 1969-70

17 in 1980-81

16 in 1989-90

16 in 1960-61

15 in 2002-03

15 in 2003-04...(27 days 26 or lower)

 

The stats you provide on our forum are virtually without parallel on the rest of the board, thanks for posting them.  I feel like you could be asked any historical question about NYC climate and you'd come back with a wealth of data.

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Could of been. This is off Wikipedia, have to check sources to see if it's legit. Based on the freezing of the bays I think it at least got down to around -20F.

 

The Extreme Weather Guide with the lowest temperatures of the 19th century at NYC doesn't have that account.

It mentions 1835, 1857, and 1859 as being the coldest of the 19th century in NYC. I also read a story of NYC

down to -15 or -16 in January 1780.

 

http://books.google.com/books?id=SV229set7RIC&pg=PA61&lpg=PA61&dq=christopher+burt+coldest+temperatures+nyc&source=bl&ots=j9eeaZdzZ0&sig=5mykH53nXKFxQ7ugUjjay431sz8&hl=en&sa=X&ei=ravqUqb8JcvNsQSiuoC4CA&ved=0CEYQ6AEwBg#v=onepage&q=christopher%20burt%20coldest%20temperatures%20nyc&f=false

 

By coincidence, Feb. 9, 1934, was the 64th birthday of the old Weather Bureau. On that day for reminiscing, meteorologists noted that the previous all-time low for New York City was minus 13, recorded on Dec. 30, 1917. One meteorologist ventured that Feb. 9 was the coldest day in New York since the American Revolution.

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Following up on a previous post from last week about the ice on the great south bay. Figured today would most likely be the maximum ice coverage we get for the winter (I mean who knows) as it will warm up this weekend.  I have never actually been able to get down to the by when it was frozen like this. It was a pretty cool experience from a weather geek perspective. If I wasn't at work I may have tried to walk to fire island (which is, of course, a terrible idea). The most interesting thing was walking up to the open bay and hearing complete silence- no water splashing up on the bulkhead. Even on the calmest days you would never hear it so silent.  

 

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post-5412-0-73632800-1391116516_thumb.jp

post-5412-0-00847400-1391116528_thumb.jp

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It was reasonably cold on Long Island this morning with a low of +1 F at NWS Upton and a low of -6 F at Suffolk County Airport / Westhampton.

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The stats you provide on our forum are virtually without parallel on the rest of the board, thanks for posting them.  I feel like you could be asked any historical question about NYC climate and you'd come back with a wealth of data.

thanks...

we had six days in a row with a temperature 20 degrees or lower so far this year...not near any record also...

since 1947-48 consecutive days 20 degrees or lower...

16 1960-61...

14 1947-48...

13 1980-81...

13 1989-90...

12 1978-79...

10 1967-68...

10 2002-03...

9...1993-94

8...1959-60

8...1971-72...

8...1976-77...

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