bluewave Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Unlike the two Arctic outbreaks at the beginning of the month, the next two Arctic outbreaks look like they wont have a warm up between them. This could possibly result in one of the coldest 7 day stretches for our area of the 2000's so far.While It's too early to determine what the exact ranking will be, temperatures might average below 20 degrees for the coldest 7 day stretch during the multiple outbreaks. This would also result in a greater ice build up on our local bays than we experienced earlier in the month. I compiled the coldest weeks in NYC since 1960 with the 2000's coldest weeks highlighted. Week/Average Temperature(F) Below 20 degrees.......................1/6-1/12........1968....12.22/12-2/18......1979....12.71/15-1/21......1994....13.91/20-1/26......1961....15.51/12-1/18.....1977.....15.91/8-1/14........1981....16.412/21-12/27...1989....16.71/18/-1/24......2005....17.11/28-2/3........1961.....17.21/10-1/16......2004.....17.41/12-1/18......1982.....17.61/18/-1/24.....1976.....18.11/28/-2/3.......1971.....18.21/19-1/25......1970.....18.42/1-2/7..........1996.....18.61/18-1/24.......2003....18.71/23-1/29.......2004....18.91/15-1/21.......1971....19.11/14-1/20......1965.....19.42/5-2/11........1979.....19.5 20 degrees or above ................................................... 1/21-1/27.......2014....20.6 2/4-2/10.........2007....20.9 1/15-1/21.......2009....21.2 1-21-1-27.......2013....21.3 1/2-1/8..........2014....22.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Another historic winter in the 2000's but for a change not from the snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Have Erie and Ontario frozen over yet? Is this cold coming in with wind? Hmmmm, might be pretty good ski conditions in the favored areas. Road trip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 January 2003 turned very cold with 12 straight days below 32 but with no storms...we had to wait til February that year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Have Erie and Ontario frozen over yet? Is this cold coming in with wind? Hmmmm, might be pretty good ski conditions in the favored areas. Road trip? Lake Erie still has some open water but it will likely freeze during this next cold period. Lake Ontario is too deep to freeze outside of the shallower areas near the shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Unlike the two Arctic outbreaks at the beginning of the month, the next two Arctic outbreaks look like they wont have a warm up between them. This could possibly result in one of the coldest 7 day stretches for our area of the 2000's so far.While It's too early to determine what the exact ranking will be, temperatures might average below 20 degrees for the coldest 7 day stretch during the multiple outbreaks. This would also result in a greater ice build up on our local bays than we experienced earlier in the month. I compiled the coldest weeks in NYC since 1960 with the 2000's coldest weeks highlighted. Week/Average Temperature(F) 1/6-1/12........1968....12.2 2/12-2/18......1979....12.7 1/15-1/21......1994....13.9 1/20-1/26......1961....15.5 1/12-1/18.....1977.....15.9 1/8-1/14........1981....16.4 12/21-12/27...1989....16.7 1/18/-1/24......2005....17.1 1/28-2/3........1961.....17.2 1/10-1/16......2004.....17.4 1/12-1/18......1982.....17.6 1/18/-1/24.....1976.....18.1 1/28/-2/3.......1971.....18.2 1/19-1/25......1970.....18.4 2/1-2/7..........1996.....18.6 1/18-1/24.......2003....18.7 1/23-1/29.......2004....18.9 1/15-1/21.......1971....19.1 1/14-1/20......1965.....19.4 2/5-2/11........1979.....19.5 2/4-2/10.........2007....20.9 1/15-1/21.......2009....21.2 1/2-1/8..........2014....22.6 here's the all time coldest weeks for NYC...Also the longest streak of max days 32 or lower... ave temp...month/day/year... 02.5......12/29/1917-1/4/1918 08.8......2/8-14/1899 10.9......2/3-9/1895 12.2......1/6-12/1968 12.3......1/11-17/1893 12.6......12/28/1880-1/3/1881 12.7......2/12-18/1979 13.5......2/4-10/1934 13.5......1/22-28/1888 13.6......1/9-15/1886 13.6......1/10-16/1912 13.9......1/15-21/1994 14.1......2/1-7/1886 14.6......1/15-21/1935 14.6......1/23-29/1936 ...................... longest streak of below freezing max days since 1930...1917-18 added... 16 in 1960-61... 13 in 2000-01... 12 in 2002-03... 12 in 1977-78... 12 in 1957-58... 12 in 1935-36... 11 in 1980-81... 11 in 1978-79... 10 in 1958-59... 10 in 1947-48... 10 in 1917-18 ..9 in 2006-07 ..9 in 2004-05... ..9 in 2003-04... ..9 in 1995-96... ..9 in 1989-90... ..9 in 1976-77... ..9 in 1967-68... ..9 in 1933-34... ..8 in 1983-84... ..7 in 1999-00... ..7 in 1987-88... ..7 in 1963-64... ..7 in 1962-63... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Is there a record for NYC for the number of consecutive days in a row that the minimum daily low always was below freezing? I thought December 1989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The GFS and Euro have backed off a bit from the extreme cold that they were showing at 12z yesterday in the long range. We still sit at -20 to -24C 850mb temps for a few days but the -40C 850mb temps that were shown into the upper mid-west stay up into Canada on the latest modeling. It's all going to come down to the orientation of the polar vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The GFS and Euro have backed off a bit from the extreme cold that they were showing at 12z yesterday in the long range. We still sit at -20 to -24C 850mb temps for a few days but the -40C 850mb temps that were shown into the upper mid-west stay up into Canada on the latest modeling. It's all going to come down to the orientation of the polar vortex. As much as I love extreme cold, ice in the rivers, etc. (yup, I'm deranged ), we don't want the core of the Polar Vortex to come down too far south if we want better shots at significant snow events and avoid suppression. Best case for most of us would be for it to hover to our NNW a bit and eventually elongate to the east and west of the actual core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The GFS and Euro have backed off a bit from the extreme cold that they were showing at 12z yesterday in the long range. We still sit at -20 to -24C 850mb temps for a few days but the -40C 850mb temps that were shown into the upper mid-west stay up into Canada on the latest modeling. It's all going to come down to the orientation of the polar vortex. Makes sense. What they were showing was almost unheard of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 As much as I love extreme cold, ice in the rivers, etc. (yup, I'm deranged ), we don't want the core of the Polar Vortex to come down too far south if we want better shots at significant snow events and avoid suppression. Best case for most of us would be for it to hover to our NNW a bit and eventually elongate to the east and west of the actual core. I believe January 96 occurred as the PV was pulling out of the area. I could be wrong (I was only 10 years old at the time). That can be a really ideal situation for a major system and some of the long range modeling has been hinting at that possibility. Of course with any PV you can also get suppression. The 00z GFS almost brought the edge of the PV into northern Florida with the 850mb freezing line making it down to Orlando with much of northern Florida below freezing at hour 150 at the surface. That would be extreme cold, but not historic. It's the kind of rare setup that can bring snow chances to the sunshine state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The 0z GFS was an ice box , it backed off at 6z the Euro op at D10 backed off but its ensembles didn`t yet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Euro Ensemb , backed off at D 15 but keeps the BLOCK over the top , so it looks cold all the way through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Is there a record for NYC for the number of consecutive days in a row that the minimum daily low always was below freezing? I thought December 1989 season.....con/days min. 32 or lower...since 1930 with 1917-18 added... 1976-77...........51 1969-70...........45 1917-18...........44 1933-34...........36 1944-45...........36 2006-07...........36 1984-85...........35 1954-55...........33 1989-90...........33 1935-36...........31 1979-80...........31 2003-04...........29 1999-00...........28 1968-69...........27 1967-68...........27 1964-65...........27 2008-09...........27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 season.....con/days min. 32 or lower...since 1930 with 1917-18 added... 1976-77...........51 1969-70...........45 1917-18...........44 1933-34...........36 1944-45...........36 2006-07...........36 1984-85...........35 1954-55...........33 1989-90...........33 1935-36...........31 1979-80...........31 2003-04...........29 1999-00...........28 1968-69...........27 1967-68...........27 1964-65...........27 2008-09...........27 Great info, wow, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I believe January 96 occurred as the PV was pulling out of the area. I could be wrong (I was only 10 years old at the time). That can be a really ideal situation for a major system and some of the long range modeling has been hinting at that possibility. Of course with any PV you can also get suppression. The 00z GFS almost brought the edge of the PV into northern Florida with the 850mb freezing line making it down to Orlando with much of northern Florida below freezing at hour 150 at the surface. That would be extreme cold, but not historic. It's the kind of rare setup that can bring snow chances to the sunshine state. January 1996 was a picture perfect scenario and the vortex was retreating a bit. We had a perfect -NAO, -EPO connected up to the AO and a spectacular +PNA orientation and the ideal 50/50. The beauty at 500, 700 and 850 makes me cry lol: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96-500MillibarMaps.html http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96-700MillibarMaps.html http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96-850MillibarMaps.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 season.....con/days min. 32 or lower...since 1930 with 1917-18 added... 1976-77...........51 1969-70...........45 1917-18...........44 1933-34...........36 1944-45...........36 2006-07...........36 1984-85...........35 1954-55...........33 1989-90...........33 1935-36...........31 1979-80...........31 2003-04...........29 1999-00...........28 1968-69...........27 1967-68...........27 1964-65...........27 2008-09...........27 What about a maximum of 32 or less(consecutive days) I know 01/19/61---02/05/61 of 16 days[just a high of 31!), any others? Check a newsreel of Kennedy's Inaguration near start of this period and everyone looks like they are freezing there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 January 1996 was a picture perfect scenario and the vortex was retreating a bit. We had a perfect -NAO, -EPO connected up to the AO and a spectacular +PNA orientation and the ideal 50/50. The beauty at 500, 700 and 850 makes me cry lol: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96-500MillibarMaps.html http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96-700MillibarMaps.html http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96-850MillibarMaps.html It doesn't get much better than a closed off 850mb low over the Ohio valley with perfect moisture transport from the ocean and an abundant cold air source. We'll probably never see anything quite like that in our lifetimes again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 What about a maximum of 32 or less(consecutive days) I know 01/19/61---02/05/61 of 16 days[just a high of 31!), any others? Check a newsreel of Kennedy's Inaguration near start of this period and everyone looks like they are freezing there! look above... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 It doesn't get much better than a closed off 850mb low over the Ohio valley with perfect moisture transport from the ocean and an abundant cold air source. We'll probably never see anything quite like that in our lifetimes again. At one point during the storm while living in my hometown of Howell, NJ I had 11 degress and whiteout conditions lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 At one point during the storm while living in my hometown of Howell, NJ I had 11 degress and whiteout conditions lol. Oh the good ole days, back when the Weather Channel was actually watchable and had great experts like Paul Kocin. It was one of the rare times in my life where we had back to back snow days. TV mets were also a little less conservative in those days. It was before the March 2001 debacle and when a majority of the public, outside of mets, knew even less about weather forecasting. The internet has changed things dramatically. I would give up snow for the next five years for just one 96 redux. Boxing Day was exciting but my totals were about half of 96 thanks to the best banding staying just to my east. The most impressive feature of that storm for me was the winds. I was in Daytona Beach for PDII. I remember being very upset about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Oh the good ole days, back when the Weather Channel was actually watchable and had great experts like Paul Kocin. It was one of the rare times in my life where we had back to back snow days. TV mets were also a little less conservative in those days. It was before the March 2001 debacle and when a majority of the public, outside of mets, knew much about weather forecasting. The internet has changed things dramatically. I would give up snow for the next five years for just one 96 redux. Boxing Day was exciting but my totals were about half of 96 thanks to the best banding staying just to my east. The most impressive feature of that storm for me was the winds. 96 was incredible. Back in the Shenandoah Valley, we got 3-4 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Oh the good ole days, back when the Weather Channel was actually watchable and had great experts like Paul Kocin. It was one of the rare times in my life where we had back to back snow days. TV mets were also a little less conservative in those days. It was before the March 2001 debacle and when a majority of the public, outside of mets, knew much about weather forecasting. The internet has changed things dramatically. I would give up snow for the next five years for just one 96 redux. Boxing Day was exciting but my totals were about half of 96 thanks to the best banding staying just to my east. The most impressive feature of that storm for me was the winds. I was in Daytona Beach for PDII. I remember being very upset about it. And to think the GFS (or I guess AVN back then) was still suppressed up until the Friday night before. Forecast was for light snow Sunday night into Monday and we were less than 48 hours from a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I dont even have the weather channal anymore. Direct tv dropped it because it became a reality tv show. Now I have this weather nation ... its seems to use noaa and nws maps and such... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Oh the good ole days, back when the Weather Channel was actually watchable and had great experts like Paul Kocin. It was one of the rare times in my life where we had back to back snow days. TV mets were also a little less conservative in those days. It was before the March 2001 debacle and when a majority of the public, outside of mets, knew much about weather forecasting. The internet has changed things dramatically. I would give up snow for the next five years for just one 96 redux. Boxing Day was exciting but my totals were about half of 96 thanks to the best banding staying just to my east. The most impressive feature of that storm for me was the winds. I was in Daytona Beach for PDII. I remember being very upset about it. Agree with you about Boxing Day, 1996 was better from my perspective though I am the one who got the Boxing Day banding you speak of lol. Don't feel too bad about PD2, I missed it also as I was in Las Vegas lol. By the way, President's Day that year came out exactly the same way it comes out this year with Valentine's Day on a Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I cant believe its been 18 years.. I had 36" in 96 and I think 27 in the boxing day storm. Bloomfield,nj In 96, I went to plow an apartment complex and was confronted with a 15 foot drift that was long as the driveway.. and it was long...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 96 was incredible. Back in the Shenandoah Valley, we got 3-4 feet of snow.Yeah, that March 4-6, 2001, "Greatest SnowStorm that Never Happened" was covered by 1010 WINS as a live event days before its supposed beginning. 30" in 60hrs.!!! was AccuWeather's mantra. The tombstone reads [5.5" and still waiting]. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 And to think the GFS (or I guess AVN back then) was still suppressed up until the Friday night before. Forecast was for light snow Sunday night into Monday and we were less than 48 hours from a blizzard. This doesn't really surprise me. We all remember the modeling debacle that occurred with Boxing Day and I believe the GFS was still backing Sandy into Cape Cod less than 48 hours from landfall. When you have strong subsidence the models seem to have a much easier time handling things. February 2010 comes to mind. That month broke a lot of hearts up this way, but boy was that epic for the mid-atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 And to think the GFS (or I guess AVN back then) was still suppressed up until the Friday night before. Forecast was for light snow Sunday night into Monday and we were less than 48 hours from a blizzard. Even Sat morning, WINS was saying it would stay south of NYC...it wasn't until the mid-day runs that they came north-so we had 24 hrs notice roughly. And even then they were all going 6-12 for NYC-that was Sat evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Yeah, that March 4-6, 2001, "Greatest SnowStorm that Never Happened" was covered by 1010 WINS as a live event days before its supposed beginning. 30" in 60hrs.!!! was AccuWeather's mantra. The tombstone reads [5.5" and still waiting]. I'll never forget that storm. That was really the first time that you had such a major bust in the modern internet era. A lot of the more bullish forecasters changed their forecasting style after that. I remember watching the weather channel as with each consecutive update Paul Kocin pushed the 12"+ contour further and further north. My school was closed for two consecutive days and we barely saw advisory criteria totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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