Brewers Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 We will see how cold these last 10 days are, but there's a realistic chance this Jan goes down as the coldest since 1979. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 A balmy 2 degrees right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Temperature has dropped some, but not a lot. Currently -1° at UGN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Only been two weeks since last snowstorm but seems like forever. Just got home and it doesn't even feel like its 0 out. This is nothing compared to few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 I'm down to -4F/-20C. Temperature not dropping very quickly. Usually doesn't in these parts unless it's a fresh air mass moving in or a NE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Aaaannnnd KARB doing its thing -13 at midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Aaaannnnd KARB doing its thing -13 at midnight Mother Nature has definitely delivered the goods for my first Michigan winter.I feel like now I'm gonna be spoiled for every winter after this one though haha! Especially regarding the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 down to -11 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I had a frost quake at 10:00 pm and that is the first one I ever experienced. It was a loud boom that sounded like a firework just went off above and shook everything a little. Windows fog up easy and I can hear some different sounding creaks but nothing too noticeable. I thought it was above -20ºC but after the quake I wondered if the temp. was dropping rapidly since normally those don't occur until extreme cold sets in. My guess was right and it was -25ºC at 10:00 pm which is one of the coldest air temps. in years here and now it shows an amazing -27ºC; that is coming close to the coldest temp. I've experienced. Its the most opposite of my username lol. My personal lowest isn't fully known but I believe its -29ºC or so. The conditions are perfect since the air is dead calm with clear skies. This is quite surprising since the forecast low for tonight into overnight was only -21ºC and now I'm already 6ºC lower than that which is incredible. Likely going to set a record if not already. Another thing is despite others here, its dropping pretty fast so 1ºC per hour and 12ºC since 2:00 pm yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Aaaannnnd KARB doing its thing -13 at midnight Lol the reverse KYIP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Mother Nature has definitely delivered the goods for my first Michigan winter. I feel like now I'm gonna be spoiled for every winter after this one though haha! Especially regarding the cold. Yeah this is not normal at all, with the combination of cold/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 You guys and gals may want to look at the average 5 day temps off the GFS ensembles, as the 01/22 0z operational GFS finally seems be in agreement here for MSP. Won't bore you with the maps just the link if you want to go there. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2014012200/ stay warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Polar Vortex active at 384 hours on the GFS or just plain cold temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 While the NAO is forecast to stay positive, the block is not over Southern Greenland where you normally see it, but rather north and slightly west of there, but still its there, the cold air can't rotate out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Now I'm at -29ºC with a wind chill of -35C which is the lowest in quite a few years I think. In the Top 4 coldest temperatures I've ever lived through. Still dropping 1ºC per hour. This completes the full-on winter package now, its the entire deal here. -28.8ºC at the UW weather station in Waterloo ON. The forecast low for tonight has changed 3 times already in the span of a few hours to catch up to what is actually happening (was -21ºC at first now -28ºC). I just have to shake my head at the model's projections of extreme cold, going to see some features in the environment rarely ever seen at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Polar Vortex active at 384 hours on the GFS or just plain cold temps... If in two weeks we are still dealing with the prospects of below zero weather....I can honestly say I'll be ready for this stuff to end. Looking at the 10 day euro, (although it 'moderates' relatively speaking, still cold under normal circumstances), it still has that relentless, and possible reload look at day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Vespian brought this to my attention and I just checked it out. The euro takes a good chunk of the subforum above zero up to about the MI/OH line on Monday. In fact upper 30's thru central IN and OH. Wonder if that's a hiccup. 850 0 line stays much further south, only to about the river and southern IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Clouds stayed away long enough overnight and LAF hit -8º for a low temperature this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 When I lived in Ontario I kept daily weather records and was outside around midnight on that coldest night in Jan 1976, it was -41 and there was a sound like a rifle shot out of the trees behind my back yard. I guess it was something to do with frost in the tree branches. That was about 20 miles northeast of Orillia in the snow belt, and the lowest temperature I recorded over four winters at that location or anywhere since then although I had -40 even in Lakefield north of Peterborough in Jan 94. No exploding trees there however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Vespian brought this to my attention and I just checked it out. The euro takes a good chunk of the subforum above zero up to about the MI/OH line on Monday. In fact upper 30's thru central IN and OH. Wonder if that's a hiccup. 850 0 line stays much further south, only to about the river and southern IN. You mean Sunday. Monday is balls cold on the Euro. I guess it all depends on the strength of clipper coming through. Euro is north and fairly strong, bringing a short burst of WAA for us. Its ensembles are much colder at 0z Monday (left side of the map, op on the right). These northern stream vorts give the models fits, so I'd caution jumping on any solution right now. But, if it does goes north and strengthens fairly rapidly...might be a brief warm shot for Sunday. Bottom falls out on Monday, regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 yes late sunday night into early Monday. These are 2m during that timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Now I'm at -29ºC with a wind chill of -35C which is the lowest in quite a few years I think. In the Top 4 coldest temperatures I've ever lived through. Still dropping 1ºC per hour. This completes the full-on winter package now, its the entire deal here. -28.8ºC at the UW weather station in Waterloo ON. The forecast low for tonight has changed 3 times already in the span of a few hours to catch up to what is actually happening (was -21ºC at first now -28ºC). I just have to shake my head at the model's projections of extreme cold, going to see some features in the environment rarely ever seen at this rate. Alliston -35, Peterborough -32, Parry Sound -33. These are air temps. Coldest stuff I've seen that far south in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 -6F at DTW this morning, the 6th day below zero this month. DTX: NO LET UP IN SITE TO THE COLD OVER THE NEXT WEEK...AS POLAR VORTEX DROPS SOUTH OVER JAMES BAY THIS WEEKEND. BASED ON OUR CURRENT FORECAST...JANUARY 2014 AT DETROIT SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM CLIMBING INTO TOP 10 COLDEST ON RECORD...AND WILL PROBABLY BE CLOSER TO TOP 5...IN ADDITION TO BECOMING THE SNOWIEST ON RECORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 yes late sunday night into early Monday. These are 2m during that timeframe Odd... did not expect to see that during that timeframe. I did notice that the cold blast was being pushed into the future a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Odd... did not expect to see that during that timeframe. I did notice that the cold blast was being pushed into the future a bit. honestly when I actually posted that I didn't realize how far the 'warmth' extended north. According to that, above freezing all the way to I-94 in MI. Seems unlikely but hard to deny the euro's stubbornness to push things north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 lo, the 12z Euro run from yesterday was much further south. Maybe stubbornly inconsistent. Anyways, I think you have to take each impulse one at time in this pattern. Because what it does can lead to differing outcomes for the next one in line. I wouldn't snuggle up to any solution outside 3 days right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 lo, the 12z Euro run from yesterday was much further south. Maybe stubbornly inconsistent. Anyways, I think you have to take each impulse one at time in this pattern. Because what it does can lead to differing outcomes for the next one in line. I wouldn't snuggle up to any solution outside 3 days right now. oh I'm not buying anything good or bad. But if one model was being an outlier towards warmer/north, the euro would be the one I'd be most concerned about. But 'outlier' is still the key word here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 oh I'm not buying anything good or bad. But if one model was being an outlier towards warmer/north, the euro would be the one I'd be most concerned about. But 'outlier' is still the key word here. Sure, I'm not saying it can't be correct either. But rather large flip flops from one run to the next doesn't give me fuzzy feelings about the model. And really, the Euro has kinda blown chunks with these clippers. You had posted a map of its snowfall for the deal yesterday overnight/morning...and it didn't have the best performance for locales in IL and IN (especially the northern halves of each state). http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42362-january-13-21st-clippershybrids/?p=2654556 Alas, one at time is my play right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 the euro sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 the euro sucks I don't think it sucks. But it's not a lock it up solution anymore, like it sorta used to be, outside a couple of days. I do think it was good/consistent with the January 5 storm, while the other models were chasing their tales. But, that was a different type of storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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