Geos Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The key differences between the GFS and ECMWF aren't downstream, but upstream. The GFS is what I call a complete pattern collapse. All upstream blocking gone. The EC still tries to keep some western ridging intact. This is a long range model war. We will probably know the victor by Tuesday 0z when this is out of truncation. Bustardi's never ending cold is not gonna happen with the longevity, length or depth into the CONUS. It will swipe the lakes and northeast passing quickly by the end of the month. That's what I'm thinking too, with the changing teleconnections this week. Not as bad as the 5th-8th. - especially for the western Lakes and eastern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I will be shocked if Toronto dips below -10F this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 ECMWF continues to look pretty darn cold here in MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 ECMWF continues to look pretty darn cold here in MI. Yeah, beats go with the 12z Euro. Differences between it and the GFS at day 7 are something. GFS pushing the 0C 850 line close to here from the west...while the Euro has it cutting through far western Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Yeah, beats go with the 12z Euro. Differences between it and the GFS at day 7 are something. GFS pushing the 0C 850 line close to here from the west...while the Euro has it cutting through far western Nebraska. Interesting battle between them. The Canadian (which actually has not been that bad this year) supports the Euro too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 Interesting battle between them. The Canadian (which actually has not been that bad this year) supports the Euro too. I think Toronto might see -15F again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Interesting battle between them. The Canadian (which actually has not been that bad this year) supports the Euro too. Nothing supports the op GFS. I think I see its problem...as it is loving to amp up these clippers from NW Canada, each one pushing the western ridge farther and farther east. Progressive bias at play maybe? I dunno. 12z Euro is colder than normal though 240 hours. Again. Wash, rinse, repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 EURO shows the brief visit by the PV next Sunday-Monday, but then everything starts to shift. Ridge in Pacific starts to sink southwards and eastwards. Southerly flow in the middle of the country by day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 The 18z GFS looks colder for this upcoming week. Keeps the minus 20 isotherm south of Lake Ontario through Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So far this week the worst of the cold will be Tuesday and Tuesday night. 9°/-3° currently forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 0z GFS continues to go back to the cold in the 6-10 day range and snowy as well here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 0z GFS continues to go back to the cold in the 6-10 day range and snowy as well here. Look like Chicago WX and JB may have been right about the GFS being in error for the past couple of days with my meltdown two days ago not being justified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS next Sunday Towards the 30th-31st, lows start hitting the Pacific Northwest again as the West Coast ridge gets beaten down with the falling PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Angry will love the Canadian... has a nice rainstorm in the center of the country for most of the subforum up to and including Chicago by 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Angry will love the Canadian... has a nice rainstorm in the center of the country for most of the subforum up to and including Chicago by 240 I wont lie but i would take it. This is week two of boring and the GFS shows it for another two weeks. Thanks but no thanks to that. I'll take a pattern change and risk rain to get rid of this boring crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I wont lie but i would take it. This is week two of boring and the GFS shows it for another two weeks. Thanks but no thanks to that. I'll take a pattern change and risk rain to get rid of this boring crap. I agree 100%, the current pattern we are in with the random fluff hits and the reinforcing shots of Arctic air is pretty lousy. I'd rather we get 2 6+" storms vs 6 2+" storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 JB riding this, not quitting on the cold. Of course, he will go up in flames before relenting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I wont lie but i would take it. This is week two of boring and the GFS shows it for another two weeks. Thanks but no thanks to that. I'll take a pattern change and risk rain to get rid of this boring crap. yea the 10 day total euro total snowfall has consistently shown the heaviest axis of snowfall, (outside LES areas), across our subforum as being under 6". The axis location changes but the pawltry amounts do not. I agree with you, I'll take a shake up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Bustardi still calling for ECWMF has Chicago hitting -23 with outbreak Jan 26-28.. No picnic this week before this either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Look like Chicago WX and JB may have been right about the GFS being in error for the past couple of days with my meltdown two days ago not being justified. Sometimes you have to use some sense when every other piece of guidance is disagreement with the op GFS. It's not rocket science. But again, all operational model scores drop quickly as we get past day 5, 6, etc. That's why ensembles are out there...and using some pattern recognition. Regardless, colder than normal pattern should continue through the end of the month, though JB's severe cold shots are probably overdone...but it will still be cold. I still think changes are afoot at the end of the month/early February...but to a stormier pattern developing. Cold will be available, but some will start running the risk of p-type issues at times, somewhere down the road. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 Sometimes you have to use some sense when every other piece of guidance is disagreement with the op GFS. It's not rocket science. But again, all operational model scores drop quickly as we get past day 5, 6, etc. That's why ensembles are out there...and using some pattern recognition. Regardless, colder than normal pattern should continue through the end of the month, though JB's severe cold shots are probably overdone...but it will still be cold. I still think changes are afoot at the end of the month/early February...but to a stormier pattern developing. Cold will be available, but some will start running the risk of p-type issues at times, somewhere down the road. We'll see. This is great news. Like everyone here, I want snow and storms but I also wanted a period of severe cold so we could look back and say that this amazing winter offered us a dose of everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 Bustardi still calling for ECWMF has Chicago hitting -23 with outbreak Jan 26-28.. No picnic this week before this either. I highly doubt it will get that cold in Chicago, although the city might see a zero day next week. Personally I think JB (as well as Chicago WX) did a good job at calling out the GFS on two occasions this month. As Chicago said, though, his numbers for the cold are likely overdone, with him seemingly calling for David Ludlum "Early American Winters"-style outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 These are NH 500H model skill scores at day 3, 6, and 10. Some may poo poo this as only 500H verification, but it's also kinda important in the grand scheme. Of course, it says nothing to actual surface or storm predictive skills. As you can see, pretty good at day 3, not bad at day 6, and then meh at day 10. I guess that's why I caution rip and reading the outputs of the operational models past 6 days. And as far as the GFS ensembles, and forecasting the AO...well it doesn't always go well when we look ahead. Notice the circled red areas in the 7, 10, and 14 day forecasts. Black line is the actual AO reading and the blue line is the mean forecast. Needless to say, the GEFS missed the boat on the AO dropping as far as it has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So apparently the JMA is a legit model now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So apparently the JMA is a legit model now? At day 3, it's equal to the GFS (500H accuracy). Though I'd think most models should be good in that timeframe. But it has no scores beyond day 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 PNA will be key to flipping this pattern. GEFS has done a really good job at getting this index right. Managed to pop into phase 6 now. Usually when Bastardi gets in these undefeatable moods, he ends up busting. He's got the cold bias in him right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 YYZ stays under 850s of around -20C for nearly the entire 12Z GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 12z GFS is such a turd for here... other then a quick warmup fri/sat its all nasty ugly cold.. ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 YYZ stays under 850s of around -20C for nearly the entire 12Z GFS run. Could potentially be epic and historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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