Hoosier Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I think the American model is starting to sniff a pattern change, which probably won't actually happen until the first week of February. The GFS is just being its impatient self. Our across-the-ocean friend will probably be closer to reality for the last week of January. I could buy that...the relaxation happens but not as fast as the GFS suggests and maybe not as drastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 DT posted on his Facebook page that the latest operational GFS runs are, to paraphrase, nonsense, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 DT posted on his Facebook page that the latest operational GFS runs are, to paraphrase, nonsense,Because they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 DT posted on his Facebook page that the latest operational GFS runs are, to paraphrase, nonsense, fooking bulsliht. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Because they are. They may be, but at least it would get stormier if the ridging out west relaxed a bit and the PV shifted a bit to the north. I'm not necessarily rooting against a more moderate GFS like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 12z GEFS again throw water on the op run. Cold through at least 288 hours...then it backs off or retrogrades a bit until the end of the run...but that's a good thing in my book. As alluded to by many for that timeframe, cold air available and increasing chances for storminess. Win win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 My God, these latest Euro runs could rival Toronto's coldest temperature ever. I can't remember the last time the GTA saw -30C 850s.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 240 hours out...pick your poison. 12z GFS...or 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Definitely seeing a shift around the 27th now. GFS goes from this... To this... Cold air starts to move back westwards across CA right at the end of the run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 12z GEFS 2m temp departures in the 6-10 and 11-15 day periods. I know which one I'd be inclined to believe, considering they look like the Euro ensembles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 My God, these latest Euro runs could rival Toronto's coldest temperature ever. I can't remember the last time the GTA saw -30C 850s.. January 15-16, 1994. Yeah, -30c is really rare for Toronto. Only years it has happened have been January 1994, January 1981, January 1976, and a couple of times early in the twentieth century. It also happened in the 1850s I believe. Point is, really rare for this to happen. I'd almost root it on just for the historical aspect of it, then cheer on a storm pattern for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 January 15-16, 1994. Yeah, -30c is really rare for Toronto. Only years it has happened have been January 1994, January 1981, January 1976, and a couple of times early in the twentieth century. It also happened in the 1850s I believe. Point is, really rare for this to happen. I'd almost root it on just for the historical aspect of it, then cheer on a storm pattern for February. If you take the 12z euro verbatim, 850's get below -30c briefly next monday evening behind a 977mb clipper. Once the cold arrives, there will likely be a pretty strong gradient between areas along and away from the lake. Could end up with a situation where its ~0f along the lake and -10f to -20f from the 401 on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 If you take the 12z euro verbatim, 850's get below -30c briefly next monday evening behind a 977mb clipper. Once the cold arrives, there will likely be a pretty strong gradient between areas along and away from the lake. Could end up with a situation where its ~0f along the lake and -10f to -20f from the 401 on north. Just for the history of it all, I kind of hope that happens! Here's an interesting article I found on the February 1934 cold snap. http://www.garymay.ca/article18.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 God, the local CTV weather people are awful here in Toronto, except for Anthony Farnell. It has already started. "Folks, this is the second round of our polar vortex. We have a Siberian air mass settling over Ontario. I can barely pronounce the words as I can't believe what I'm reading." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 God, the local CTV weather people are awful here in Toronto, except for Anthony Farnell. It has already started. "Folks, this is the second round of our polar vortex. We have a Siberian air mass settling over Ontario. I can barely pronounce the words as I can't believe what I'm reading." I don't get it. What is that quote trying to convey? Is it from Tom Brown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 GFS has no part of that PV still on the 18z runs. Ends up with a zonal looking flow after next weekend. Cold air shifts westwards across Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 GFS has no part of that PV still on the 18z runs. Ends up with a zonal looking flow after next weekend. Cold air shifts westwards across Canada. Disregard according to JB. feedback issues. Prepare for vodka cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Disregard according to JB. feedback issues. Prepare for vodka cold. Or people can stop dry humping the op GFS past 180 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 GFS has no part of that PV still on the 18z runs. Ends up with a zonal looking flow after next weekend. Cold air shifts westwards across Canada. I'm not seeing this on any ensembles, it's probably rubbish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 I don't get it. What is that quote trying to convey? Is it from Tom Brown? No. It's from the lady who reads the weather at 6pm on weekends. Dana I think her name is. The point is that they're already starting to obsess over the term polar vortex and seem to find it hard to believe that Toronto could possibly get this cold...as if the world is falling apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 How did you get the temperatures to display in Celsius? Is this from the Weatherbell site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I'm not seeing this on any ensembles, it's probably rubbish. Was just checking the teleconnections. They would support a pattern shift. PNA to shift negative, NAO positive, and AO positive eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 Was just checking the teleconnections. They would support a pattern shift. PNA to shift negative, NAO positive, and AO positive eventually. I don't mind the pattern shift so long as we get this extreme cold shot first. Want to see if Toronto can make weather history (get down to -30C for the first time in 20 years, only the fourth or fifth time in 60 years). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 This is my last post on the subject...because I give up. But here's the wonderful op GFS in action for this coming Tuesday, from fantasy land. And then reality below. Jan 9 12z GFS run. Jan 18 12z GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I'm not seeing this on any ensembles, it's probably rubbish. That's the red flag there. Its own ensembles don't support it let alone the Euro suite. Few things are certain in weather but I'd be shocked if the GFS doesn't push the change back on later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The current wind chill value at Baker Lake is -80 F. This is why we switched to Celsius, I suppose (-62 C). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 The current wind chill value at Baker Lake is -80 F. This is why we switched to Celsius, I suppose (-62 C). Haha. --- Even JB said, February would be different compared to December and January... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 No. It's from the lady who reads the weather at 6pm on weekends. Dana I think her name is. The point is that they're already starting to obsess over the term polar vortex and seem to find it hard to believe that Toronto could possibly get this cold...as if the world is falling apart. Dana L outdoes Tom Brown and any other weather "specialists" on TO news channels. It is fun to watch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 19, 2014 Author Share Posted January 19, 2014 Dana L outdoes Tom Brown and any other weather "specialists" on TO news channels. It is fun to watch though. That's her name. Dana Levinson. Anthony Farnell is likely the most knowledgeable local weather forecaster. Yeah, I might have over reacted. I just got so tired of the polar vortex hysteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Dana L outdoes Tom Brown and any other weather "specialists" on TO news channels. It is fun to watch though. Toronto tv wx mets/specialists are textbook mediocrity and Tom Brown is at the bottom of the barrel. Farnell is the best of the bunch and I probably roll my eyes at least once during each of his forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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