January 20-? Cold snap

[Roger Smith]

Update on my previous posts, after 28 days, ORD in 10th place at 15.2 with 1888 (9th currently) at 14.9 within reach after today's likely downward move, at this point 1985 at 14.4 could remain ahead of this year as 30th will see a slight uptick before 31st moves down about the same amount -- my prediction is that the month ends 14.8. That of course applies to the 142 years from 1873 to 2014 ... you would have to add 1857 to the colder list going back further, so you could now say a chance of being top ten in 180 years of records or thereabouts.

 

I will draw up a graph later this week to correlate ORD and Toronto City and/or YYZ values for your interest, would be interesting to add DTW, I suppose the same site as the ORD records would have DTW going back also.

 

As to some earlier data, I have these January values for Marietta OH which unfortunately are not continuous, and end the same year that Toronto City began (1840 was missed so Jan 1841), you get the impression that none of these years would have been colder than 1888 although 1840 might have been. Between 1841 and 1872 in Toronto records, only 1852, 1856, 1857 and possibly 1867 suggest any chance of ORD beng colder than 1888, obviously 1857 was but 1856 probably about even with it, the others likely just a bit milder.

 

The Marietta readings are three times daily so are likely higher than means we employ now, the 1841 overlap gives some idea of the correction to be applied, I would say 4 deg on average should be taken off these to convert them to modern monthly means:

 

(some notes are added for your interest)

 

1819 .. 41.6 (very mild 21st to 24th averaged 54 F)

1820 .. 28.4 (colder first half)

1821 .. 28.2 (5 below zero mean on 25th)

1822 .. 30.0

1823 .. 33.0 (this month unlike the rest is from sunrise and mid-afternoon readings only, no corr)

 

1829 .. 33.2 (1st was 58.0, 2nd was 27.0 and 3rd was 18.3 -- CAA old stylee)

1830 .. 31.4

1831 .. 26.0

1832 .. 29.4

1833 .. 36.0 (50+ first five days, also 30th)

1834 .. 27.2

1835 .. 34.1

1836 .. 31.2

1837 .. 28.0

1838 .. 34.9 (8th was 60.3)

1839 .. 35.3

1840 .. 24.6

1841 .. 32.3 (Toronto City 24.0, close to long-term normals for 1841-70)

 

Marietta then has data to 1859 but misses the cold years of 1856-57. Comparisons in 1852 suggest that in general these data are likely in sync with Toronto and if you assume the real difference in means from latitude is about 4 or 5 deg, you could take 4 off the Marietta numbers for a direct comparison.

 

I also have those data from Fort Dearborn in the 1780s. From 1782 to 1786 the January data look similar to modern data, plenty of days in the 30s and 40s, but 1784 was exceptionally cold, averaging only 12 F from sunrise and afternoon readings, and dropping to lows of -18, -17, -16 and -17 from 27th to 30th (also -16 on the 16th and -15 on 8th and 9th). No subzero max for any of these, the lowest max or near max, 2 pm reading, was 0 on the 7th heading into the first significant cold spell after a mild December (60 F on the 11th), and it was 3 for a max on Jan 28th. ... Feb 1784 and the first week of March remained cold with several more mins below -10, then it was closer to modern normals for the rest of March and April, and very hot in May 1784 (97 was recorded on May 9th during a five-day heat wave).  One would have to suspect that further north in Michigan and no doubt also in central to northeastern Ontario, there was some epic snow melt flooding with ice jams and sudden thaws of inland lakes in early May, 1784 because there was only modest warmth in April at Fort Dearborn and mostly readings in the 40s or low 50s.

 

So in other words, this winter is broadly similar to some historic winters of the past, no data on snowfall in 1784 but I see only brief thaws in January or February, most peaks are around 28-30 F so likely it was quite a snowy winter.

 

I wonder if we will see a somewhat earlier repeat of this pattern reversal in 2014 with the same situation developing in late March into early April.

[stormtrackertf]

Mid-upper teens today, torching!

[daddylonglegs]

22F or 23F here... i was outside with no jacket.  Felt like a spring day

 

2 to 4 inches of snow tomorrow.  Then cold again Friday. 

[cyclone77]

After starting at -8 just after sunrise we made it all the way up to 29 this afternoon.  Sun is slowly getting stronger.  You can already tell the sun angle is a bit higher during the day. 

[daddylonglegs]

Roger-

 

Just did a little digging...

 

"In June 1783 the Laki volcano in Iceland began to erupt, and continued erupting for months, causing a major environmental disaster. The eruption spewed out toxic sulfuric acid aerosols, which spread over northern latitudes and caused thousands of deaths. That summer, there were heat waves, widespread famines, crop failures, and livestock losses. During the following winter, temperatures in Europe were about 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) below average for the late 1700s; the winter was also one of the most severe of the past 500 years in eastern North America. The Laki eruption has been blamed for the anomalously cold winter of 1783–1784."

Think if something like that were to happen again ... i wonder if L Michigan froze completely over that year? 

[Roger Smith]

Despite a daily anomaly of -14, ORD only moved down to 15.1 F on the 29th and is thus still in 9th place behind 1888 at 14.9 F. Seems unlikely now that it will move any lower and it could drift back towards 15.5 but will remain the current 10th place January since 1873 and about 12th to 15th since 1829 based on comparative data elsewhere.

 

 

[vespasian70]

Bottomed out at -9 last night. Not too shabby.

[buckeye]

In spite of the crazy cold the last several mornings, I keep hearing birds singing like you normally do in the early warm days of spring. 

[pondo1000]

In spite of the crazy cold the last several mornings, I keep hearing birds singing like you normally do in the early warm days of spring. 

I heard them when I got home from work yesterday. I think they are like us and acclimate so 18 degrees feels like spring!  

[buckeye]

I heard them when I got home from work yesterday. I think they are like us and acclimate so 18 degrees feels like spring!  

 

I actually heard them during the coldest mornings earlier in the week too....  I was chalking it up to their little brains freezing up and thinking it was April

[pondo1000]

I actually heard them during the coldest mornings earlier in the week too....  I was chalking it up to their little brains freezing up and thinking it was April

Hah!!!!!!

[weatherzen]

I actually heard them during the coldest mornings earlier in the week too....  I was chalking it up to their little brains freezing up and thinking it was April

Me too! I thought it was my brain freezing up and thinking I was hearing birds singing...

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Despite a daily anomaly of -14, ORD only moved down to 15.1 F on the 29th and is thus still in 9th place behind 1888 at 14.9 F. Seems unlikely now that it will move any lower and it could drift back towards 15.5 but will remain the current 10th place January since 1873 and about 12th to 15th since 1829 based on comparative data elsewhere.

It's going to be close for YYZ. As of this morning, we have a colder mean that January 2009, but the mild day today could move us into a tie with 2009, or even slightly warmer.

[Roger Smith]

ORD finished at 15.7 for January, 8.1 deg below normal, and 10th coldest since 1873, likely about 12th coldest since 1855, probably around 15th to 20th coldest since 1784 (from comparative data but some years without much evidence).