Hoosier Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 RAP not as extreme as the GGEM but it shows the excessively cold readings farther south/east into IN/OH and not confined to IA/IL/WI area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 ORD up to -1°. Can it remain below 0°? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 ORD up to -1°. Can it remain below 0°? Doesn't really matter given it was still above zero after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Doesn't really matter given it was still above zero after midnight. I was thinking how many consecutive hours it can remain below zero this time around. Yeah it was 7° here for a high today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 -6.4F at the house....slooooooowly warming up... 46F in my low tunnel Good sunshine...furnace gets a break. Sun goes down and its game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Looks like the RAP is colder due to calmer winds where the NAM keeps them up a bit overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Hasn't been any warmer than -3 so far during the day. Was 0 at midnight, so that will be the official high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Steady at -3° here today. WC have been shy of the warning criteria today so far. Cold update from LOT. Sounds like warmer over night lows now. .DISCUSSION...1148 AM CSTTHE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED THROUGH EARLY EVENING TO REFLECTWARMER TEMPERATURES BY ABOUT 3-7 DEGREES. THIS RESULTED IN MILDERWIND CHILL VALUES. CERTAINLY STILL BITTER COLD...BUT WIND CHILLSVALUES THE REST OF TODAY LOOK TO BE MORE IN THE -15 TO -30...FROMSOUTH TO NORTH...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.IMPRESSIVE DEEP UPPER AND COLD TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN THREE-QUARTERS OF NORTH AMERICA THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE CURRENTPOLAR VORTEX LOBE LOOKED TO BE MEASURED AT CWPL IN WESTERN QUEBECWITH -48C AT 500MB. IN A LITTLE OVER TEN YEARS OF FORECASTINGHAVE NOT SEEN THAT COLD OF AIR AT 500MB THAT CLOSE TO THE CONUS.IN THE LOWER LEVELS...1037MB ARCTIC HIGH IS ANCHORED ACROSS THEPLAINS STATES WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE CWA...MAINLYAT 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH AND SPORADICALLY 30 MPH. WHILETHERE REMAINS COLD AIR UPSTREAM AT THE SURFACE...THE ACTUALPRESSURE RISES HAVE SLOWED ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS THENEARLY FULL SUNSHINE IS ENOUGH TO OFFSET...JUST BY A SLIGHTAMOUNT...THAT SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION. IN ADDITION...AT850-950MB THE THERMAL ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE NEUTRAL...SO THAT ISNOT HELPING TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO FALL.IT APPEARS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE ANALYZING MORE SNOW COVER THANACTUALLY EXISTS AND WE BELIEVE THAT COULD BE INFLUENCING THEIRSURFACE TEMPERATURES TO BE TOO COLD...INCLUDING MOST RAW GUIDANCEWANTING TO SHOW A DROP THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PROBLEM WITH TOO COLDOF A FORECAST BY RAW MODEL OUTPUT VERY WELL COULD CONTINUE TONIGHTINTO TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SOME FORECAST ADJUSTMENTSINTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ANDCLIMATOLOGY WITH THESE 925MB/850MB TEMPS OBSERVED THIS MORNING.THE LOWEST WIND CHILLS STILL LOOK TO BE OVERNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 9AM TUE...WITH -25 TO -40 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...WITH MUCH OF THECHICAGO AREA -30 TO -35...AND POSSIBLY -40 IN THE NORTH.MTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Been stuck between -5f and -6f on my tmeter this afternoon... probably not doing any better then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Similar to the cold blast in early January, we did not get as cold as expected this morning and we warmed more than expected during the day. A day or two ago DVN had a high today of about -8, but it has risen to -1. Maybe we are too close to the edge of the snowpack. Even the snow we do have is pretty thin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 LOT sticks with -15 to -20 tonight, with temps at and above 0 tomorrow... THE ABSOLUTELY MASSIVE UPPER TROUGH THAT IS COVERING THE EASTERN80 PERCENT OF NORTH AMERICA OR SO IS NOW EVER SO SLOWLY INCHINGEAST. ONE POCKET OF THE COLDEST 850MB TEMPS AT -28C TO -32C AND925 MB TEMPS AT -25C TO -30C ARE ROTATING EAST OVER THE GREATLAKES REGION WITH MORE OF NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AT THATLEVEL GOING INTO TONIGHT. THE 1034MB SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THEMISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL BYDAYBREAK TUE. SO WE SHOULD SEE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH ININTENSITY TONIGHT...AND EVEN DROP DOWN TO AROUND 5 MPH ACROSS THESOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA LATE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL OFFNICELY AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE COMBO OF NIGHTFALL AND SURFACE COLDAIR ADVECTION THIS EVE...AND THEN THE LACK OF PRESSURE GRADIENTFURTHER INCREASING THE COOLING OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTH. MODELGUIDANCE IS LOCKING ON A BIT BETTER THAN EARLIER WITH SURFACETEMPS BUT STILL SOME LARGE SPREADS. CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE 925MB AND850MB TEMPS FORECAST TONIGHT...WHICH ARE AT THE TAIL END FOR THISCOLDEST TIME OF THE YEAR...MINS LOOK TO STILL FALL OUT -15F TO-20F ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING JUST BELOW.THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LOCATIONS BREAKING RECORDTEMPERATURES...INCLUDING CHICAGO. IMPRESSIVE TO DO AT THE NORMALCOLDEST TIME OF THE YEAR. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS FALL OUT TO -30SOUTH TO -40 NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.WHILE THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR GRADUAL MODERATION OF THE ATMOSPHEREON TUESDAY...THE VERY LOW STARTING POINT MENTIONED ABOVE WILLLIMIT HOW HIGH TEMPS WILL GET. THE DIURNAL RANGE THIS TIME OF YEARIS MINIMAL IN THE ABSENCE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. SO CONTINUEFORECAST HIGHS ZERO TO FIVE ABOVE IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS ALONGWITH DIMINISHING SURFACE WINDS SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHTTUESDAY NIGHT WITH STILL -10 TO -15 IN OUTLYING LOCATIONS...NAMELYNORTH CENTRAL IL. WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS...FORECAST WIND CHILLVALUES ARE FALLING OUT FOR LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING AT -15 TO-30 FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MOST OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THAT WOULDTYPICALLY FALL MORE INTO THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVENOT MADE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINE TO GIVE THE NEXT SHIFT ACHANCE TO LOOK FURTHER...BUT THAT DOWNGRADE FOR THE TAIL END OFTHE WARNING COULD HAPPEN WITH FUTURE SHIFTS FOR AT LEAST APORTION OF THE WARNING FOR TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If LOT is right about lighter winds farther south, there may be a "sweet zone" to watch where there's an overlap of decent snow cover and light winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Guidance trending colder around here tonight. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Point here bumped up another degree to -21. I'm going with -17, which would tie our coldest back in early Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 If LOT is right about lighter winds farther south, there may be a "sweet zone" to watch where there's an overlap of decent snow cover and light winds. Just dropped two degrees at LAF, at 5:00pm. P&C has -14º for the airport. Over or under? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Just dropped two degrees at LAF, at 5:00pm. P&C has -14º for the airport. Over or under? Tough one. It's almost like you need 2 forecasts...one if the winds drop off and one if they don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 I'm at 10 above currently, forecast to go down to about 8 below. Hope I can make it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Tough one. It's almost like you need 2 forecasts...one if the winds drop off and one if they don't. lol, yeah. Winds no doubt will tell the tale. Hope they "overachieve" in dropping off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 lol, yeah. Winds no doubt will tell the tale. Hope they "overachieve" in dropping off. -10 to -20 final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 -10 to -20 final call Wuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I think MOS guidance and 4km NAM are the way to go here in MKE. It looks very unlikely that winds drop under 10kts for a prolonged period so -14 to -16 looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 P & C bumped up to -16° tonight. -7° tomorrow night. Winds an hour before sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Brr... temp already dropping..I had -5.7F just an hour ago and now i've got -7.3F... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 P & C bumped up to -16° tonight. -7° tomorrow night. Winds an hour before sunrise. Consider yourself lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 10/-6 spread here and dew points are still dropping. If winds manage to decouple -15 may be possible which is pretty cold for SE Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 -10.2F at 5;30pm... yeah...this doesn't look good. Wind baby wind! daddy needs some clouds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Temps starting to drop quickly here...down to -7. And this is with 10-15 mph winds. The afternoon max was -2 at 3:00 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Down to -6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 down to -3F... here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 -10.2F at 5;30pm... yeah...this doesn't look good. Wind baby wind! daddy needs some clouds! Rap has it to -20 by midnight. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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