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January 20-? Cold snap


Ottawa Blizzard

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I'm not usually one to complain about extremes but goddamn this heating cycle is gonna break the bank 

 

Thermostats already fixed on 62 and we're probably gonna end up moving it lower if this pans out  :arrowhead:

I won't tell you what our thermostat is set at but the first number is a 7.

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I know the thread says Jan 20, but I don't see any potential big cold shots happening until somewhere around the 25th or later...as currently modeled of course. So, that's also more time to improve the snow pack...if that's your thing. 

Really? The 0z GFS has the -20c isotherm below Lake Ontario by the end of the day Monday.

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Really? The 0z GFS has the -20c isotherm below Lake Ontario by the end of the day Monday.

 

Well, I was thinking a little more region wide...and "big" cold. More along the lines of the 12z Euro...which lost its mind around day 9-10. But its ensembles were also signaling in that timeframe as well. 

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While snow pack and how fresh it is important to ones local area, what's more important is what is upstream. With a snow pack upstream from you, the cold air is not likely to encounter friction from grasses, weeds and other vegetation to cause friction allowing said air to warm up, if we get a couple of clippers to lay down even a modest snow pack temps could tumble very quickly.  Friction equals heat.

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Wow, that run of the GFS was sick, awesome, whatever word you want to use to describe it. True, much of it is still in fantasy land, but it has a low bringing snow to the Toronto area in the midst of bitter cold and then a truly epic cold blast between the 26th and 29th. Just...wow!

 

Brutal pattern for any kind of siggy snow. Everything goes through the grinder.

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Lake Erie is nearly frozen over so he's pretty much done with lake effect.

 

eicecon-00.gif

 

With an upstream connection, you could still do well with the open water remaining. There's even something called "frictional effect", where the winds blowing over the ice can generate LES. It sounds odd and I don't understand the meteorology behind it but I've heard a well respected met out of BUF (Don Paul) mention it numerous times.

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not sure if it's just a hiccup or not but the 00z euro has really backed off with the 'plunge' of arctic air...keeping most of it just north of or very near the border around 240.  At the same time some very warm 850's are coming north thru Texas.....   That looks like a powder keg in the southern plains.

post-622-0-97391900-1389960303_thumb.jpg

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eicecon-00.gif

 

With an upstream connection, you could still do well with the open water remaining. There's even something called "frictional effect", where the winds blowing over the ice can generate LES. It sounds odd and I don't understand the meteorology behind it but I've heard a well respected met out of BUF (Don Paul) mention it numerous times.

Buffalo's Blizzard of 1977 happened with lake Erie completely frozen over, I believe.

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Buffalo's Blizzard of 1977 happened with lake Erie completely frozen over, I believe.

ya, but that wasn't pure LES if I remember what I read about it correctly. I believe the lake was frozen over and had a lot of dry powdery snow on it. Following the cold front there was a small amount of "new" snow but a lot of it was blown right from the lake into the surrounding areas. I apologize if I am off a bit, I haven't read about the event in a little while 

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ya, but that wasn't pure LES if I remember what I read about it correctly. I believe the lake was frozen over and had a lot of dry powdery snow on it. Following the cold front there was a small amount of "new" snow but a lot of it was blown right from the lake into the surrounding areas. I apologize if I am off a bit, I haven't read about the event in a little while 

So in a way, that storm wasn't caused so much by fresh snow falling from the sky but by strong winds blowing snow off the frozen lake into the city? Wow. The winds must have been something else to bury cars!

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Lake Erie is nearly frozen over so he's pretty much done with lake effect.

 

 

Lake Erie is never completely done with lake effect as it never gets more than 90-95% frozen. Frictional convergence can cause decent size events. But EPIC events are certainly done. This event the Lake was 90%+ covered in ice. 10-14 inches occurred over many of the southern suburbs of Buffalo.

 

EventSnowfall_2008_02_19.gif

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Lake Erie is never completely done with lake effect as it never gets more than 90-95% frozen. Frictional convergence can cause decent size events. But EPIC events are certainly done. This event the Lake was 90%+ covered in ice. 10-14 inches occurred over many of the southern suburbs of Buffalo.

 

 

 

Does Lake Ontario ever freeze over?

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