Jonger Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I am glad its gone soon and the pattern changes. time to getting back into looking for big snowstorms(which can happen in arctic patterns, but obviously not this arctic pattern lol). Um.... There is no pattern change coming before early Feb at min. Actually, its starting to look like another vortex is coming the first week of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z euro ground zeros central ohio with -24. Would be an all time record low....would need perfect conditions and even then I seriously doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I am glad its gone soon and the pattern changes. time to getting back into looking for big snowstorms(which can happen in arctic patterns, but obviously not this arctic pattern lol). we picked up close to 10" in the last 36 hours.... I'd continue to put my chips on this pattern, afterall this has always been a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately 'hobby' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Chicago Public Schools closed tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Um.... There is no pattern change coming before early Feb at min. Actually, its starting to look like another vortex is coming the first week of Feb. The pattern is clearly changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Winter Storm Warning in Madison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 should be epic to see this 50 degree crash later tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I am glad its gone soon and the pattern changes. time to getting back into looking for big snowstorms(which can happen in arctic patterns, but obviously not this arctic pattern lol). We just had a 6 inch snowfall yesterday..another 3 today..i have around 10 ionches on the ground..kinda like the pattern!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Heres a list of days where MKE saw a low of -15 or colder (not including days that saw a midnight low) with surface observations and approx. 850mb temps. I inlcuded Jan 7th from earlier this month for comparison sake. Dec 19th 1983 (-16) 850: -20 to -24 CLR, 10-12kts Dec 24th 1983 (-20) 850: -26 to -30 OVC and BLSN, 20-22kts Dec 21st 1989 (-15) 850: -26 to -30 OVC and -SN 00z-6z, CLR after 6z, 13-17kts Jan 10th 1982 (-25) 850: -32 to -36 OVC, -SN and BLSN 00z-5z. SCT BKN, BLSN 5z-7z. FEW/CLR after 7z, BLSN. 20-24kts Jan 17th 1982 (-26) 850: -32 to -36 CLR, 8-12kts Jan 21st 1984 (-19) 850: -22 to -26 CLR, 5-10kts Jan 20th 1985 (-25) 850: -32 to -36 CLR, 16-20kts Jan 16th 1994 (-17) 850: -22 to -26 CLR, BKN SCT after 8z, 5-10kts Jan 19th 1994 (-21) 850: -26 to -30 CLR, 6-10kts Jan 5th 1999 (-15) 850: -16 to -20 CLR, 5-8kts Feb 3rd 1996 (-26) 850: -24 to -26 CLR, 5-14kts Feb 4th 1996 (-19) 850: -20 to -24 CLR, 6-13kts Jan 7th 2014 (-14) 850: -23 to -27 CLR, 9-13kts Given similar 850 temps and slightly weaker sfc winds this time around I could see our low Tuesday morning somewhere between -15 and -18, if lighter sfc winds can materialize -20 has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 35 out there currently, with models showing temps hovering between -8 and -10 all day tomorrow. Not even counting wind chill values the temp will be almost 45 degrees colder this time tomorrow. Counting the wind chill (+25 currently) it will feel 60 degrees colder with the -35+ wind chills expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I'm liking the trend towards warmer... at least with overnight lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z NAM keeps in warmer in Chicagoland tomorrow night. Quite a gradient near you, Cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z NAM keeps in warmer in Chicagoland tomorrow night. Quite a gradient near you, Cyclone. Yeah, I think it's because of the sharp dropoff in snow on the ground just south of here. 20-30 miles south of here there's only a few inches on the ground compared to nearly 10" here. For that reason we should be on the cold side of that gradient tomorrow night. Thinking -20 isn't out of the question here. Definitely won't come close to our -32 from '09 though. Just not optimal enough of a setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Snap contest alert. Would post one to get a sample of predictions, but might as well keep it in this thread. Anyone who wants to block copy these and change to your forecasts is in the contest (closes at 09z when I might still be up looking at the thread, so I will gather the forecasts in one place if anyone else actually enters). VALID MONDAY 27th to WEDNESDAY 29th LOW MIN and LOW MAX as reported in F deg (C deg YYZ only) ORD -19, -2 MSN -21, -4 MSP -26, -7 LSE -25, -8 DBQ -24, -5 STL -17, +2 PIA -20, -3 LAF -18, -1 IND -19, -1 SDF -17, +5 GRR -15, +4 DTW -18, -1 CMH -20, -2 YYZ -28 (-18F) and -14 (7 F) Have at it. Also, name any extreme min you want to predict. I will say -31 F some place in s/c WI, -25 F some place w/c IL and -22 F in n/c KY ... I don't know the good frost hollows to suggest locations too precisely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 Snap contest alert. Would post one to get a sample of predictions, but might as well keep it in this thread. Anyone who wants to block copy these and change to your forecasts is in the contest (closes at 09z when I might still be up looking at the thread, so I will gather the forecasts in one place if anyone else actually enters). VALID MONDAY 27th to WEDNESDAY 29th LOW MIN and LOW MAX as reported in F deg (C deg YYZ only) ORD -19, -2 MSN -21, -4 MSP -26, -7 LSE -25, -8 DBQ -24, -5 STL -17, +2 PIA -20, -3 LAF -18, -1 IND -19, -1 SDF -17, +5 GRR -15, +4 DTW -18, -1 CMH -20, -2 YYZ -28 (-18F) and -14 (7 F) Have at it. Also, name any extreme min you want to predict. I will say -31 F some place in s/c WI, -25 F some place w/c IL and -22 F in n/c KY ... I don't know the good frost hollows to suggest locations too precisely there. I'll go with -25C and -13C for YYZ. I think Chicago has a shot at -20 and 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Wind has been insane the last hour or so....blowing like crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Worst blowing snow I have seen in the valley where my parents live in some time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 GFS still really cold, but widespread -20s remain north. EURO not as impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wow..good to see. I can handle that a little better then -20's... Be nice if they only (haven't yet) canceled one school day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Wow..good to see. I can handle that a little better then -20's... Be nice if they only (haven't yet) canceled one school day. Made a mistake and fixed it. Over done imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Made a mistake and fixed it. Over done imo.I dunno this thing has teeth. Ahead of schedule here. The conditions are crazy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Made a mistake and fixed it. Over done imo. The EURO over did it locally last time. It doesn't make sense that there is a stripe of mid -20s parallel to the lakefront and over more urbanized areas. Probably mid -10s here on Tuesday morning. Point and click agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
INWeatherGuy Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 How about some Canadian fun? Overdone GGEM/CMC at your service! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I agree about the pattern change potential. The PNA looks almost certain to turn neutral or negative in the next couple weeks. Come on SE Ridge (to a certain extent). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 I agree about the pattern change potential. The PNA looks almost certain to turn neutral or negative in the next couple weeks. Come on SE Ridge (to a certain extent). wish i could get a little giddy over the potential but I'm afraid we'll be looking on from the stands again for a while yet. at least its better than this stat padding clipper pattern... fun but its feb soon so its go time for big storms now. just gotta pray we can time one up right where there's enough relaxation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 wish i could get a little giddy over the potential but I'm afraid we'll be looking on from the stands again for a while yet. at least its better than this stat padding clipper pattern... fun but its go time for big storms now. mid to upper 20's and sun by mid feb will start eating this fluff up. 100% agree. It's been fun, but lets try a different flavor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Meteostar 18z GFS shows -21F here...usually almost always runs cold so probably looking at -15F to -20F.... Extended is almost laughable at how cold it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 NAM hires is a little closer/down to earth reality. PNA is now +0.34, so definitely lower than a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 How about some Canadian fun? Overdone GGEM/CMC at your service! almost -40c (almost -40f)....yea right, would only smash the all time low here by about 18 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 NAM hires is a little closer/down to earth reality. PNA is now +0.34, so definitely lower than a couple days ago. Glacier in place to your west I wouldn't count on any warmth in the future. Maybe out east towards you but I would be skeptical of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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