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January 20-? Cold snap


Ottawa Blizzard

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I am glad its gone soon and the pattern changes. time to getting back into looking for big snowstorms(which can happen in arctic patterns, but obviously not this arctic pattern lol).

 

Um....

 

 

There is no pattern change coming before early Feb at min. Actually, its starting to look like another vortex is coming the first week of Feb.

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I am glad its gone soon and the pattern changes. time to getting back into looking for big snowstorms(which can happen in arctic patterns, but obviously not this arctic pattern lol).

 

we picked up  close to 10" in the last 36 hours....  I'd continue to put my chips on this pattern, afterall this has always been a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately 'hobby'

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I am glad its gone soon and the pattern changes. time to getting back into looking for big snowstorms(which can happen in arctic patterns, but obviously not this arctic pattern lol).

We just had a 6 inch snowfall yesterday..another 3 today..i have around 10 ionches on the ground..kinda like the pattern!!

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Heres a list of days where MKE saw a low of -15 or colder (not including days that saw a midnight low) with surface observations and approx. 850mb temps. I inlcuded Jan 7th from earlier this month for comparison sake.

 

Dec 19th 1983 (-16)

 

850: -20 to -24 

 

CLR, 10-12kts

 

 

Dec 24th 1983 (-20)

 

850: -26 to -30

 

OVC and BLSN, 20-22kts

 

 

Dec 21st 1989 (-15)

 

850: -26 to -30

 

OVC and -SN 00z-6z, CLR after 6z, 13-17kts

 

 

Jan 10th 1982 (-25)

 

850: -32 to -36

 

OVC, -SN and BLSN 00z-5z. SCT BKN, BLSN 5z-7z. FEW/CLR after 7z, BLSN. 20-24kts

 

 

Jan 17th 1982 (-26)

 

850: -32 to -36

 

CLR, 8-12kts

 

 

Jan 21st 1984 (-19)

 

850: -22 to -26

 

CLR, 5-10kts

 

 

Jan 20th 1985 (-25)

 

850: -32 to -36

 

CLR, 16-20kts

 

 

Jan 16th 1994 (-17)

 

850: -22 to -26

 

CLR, BKN SCT after 8z, 5-10kts

 

 

Jan 19th 1994 (-21)

 

850: -26 to -30

 

CLR, 6-10kts

 

 

Jan 5th 1999 (-15)

 

850: -16 to -20

 

CLR, 5-8kts

 

 

Feb 3rd 1996 (-26)

 

850: -24 to -26

 

CLR, 5-14kts

 

 

Feb 4th 1996 (-19)

 

850: -20 to -24

 

CLR, 6-13kts

 

 

Jan 7th 2014 (-14)

 

850: -23 to -27

 

CLR, 9-13kts

 

Given similar 850 temps and slightly weaker sfc winds this time around I could see our low Tuesday morning somewhere between -15 and -18, if lighter sfc winds can materialize -20 has a chance.

 

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35 out there currently, with models showing temps hovering between -8 and -10 all day tomorrow.  Not even counting wind chill values the temp will be almost 45 degrees colder this time tomorrow.  Counting the wind chill (+25 currently) it will feel 60 degrees colder with the -35+ wind chills expected.

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12z NAM keeps in warmer in Chicagoland tomorrow night. Quite a gradient near you, Cyclone.

 

nam_t2m_mw_15.png

 

 

Yeah, I think it's because of the sharp dropoff in snow on the ground just south of here.  20-30 miles south of here there's only a few inches on the ground compared to nearly 10" here.  For that reason we should be on the cold side of that gradient tomorrow night.  Thinking -20 isn't out of the question here.  Definitely won't come close to our -32  from '09 though.  Just not optimal enough of a setup.

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Snap contest alert. Would post one to get a sample of predictions, but might as well keep it in this thread. Anyone who wants to block copy these and change to your forecasts is in the contest (closes at 09z when I might still be up looking at the thread, so I will gather the forecasts in one place if anyone else actually enters).

 

VALID MONDAY 27th to WEDNESDAY 29th

 

LOW MIN and LOW MAX as reported in F deg (C deg YYZ only)

 

ORD -19, -2

 

MSN -21, -4

 

MSP -26, -7

 

LSE -25, -8

 

DBQ -24, -5

 

STL -17, +2

 

PIA -20, -3

 

LAF -18, -1

 

IND -19, -1

 

SDF -17, +5

 

GRR -15, +4

 

DTW -18, -1

 

CMH -20, -2

 

YYZ -28 (-18F) and -14 (7 F)

 

Have at it. Also, name any extreme min you want to predict. I will say -31 F some place in s/c WI, -25 F some place w/c IL and -22 F in n/c KY ... I don't know the good frost hollows to suggest locations too precisely there.

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Snap contest alert. Would post one to get a sample of predictions, but might as well keep it in this thread. Anyone who wants to block copy these and change to your forecasts is in the contest (closes at 09z when I might still be up looking at the thread, so I will gather the forecasts in one place if anyone else actually enters).

 

VALID MONDAY 27th to WEDNESDAY 29th

 

LOW MIN and LOW MAX as reported in F deg (C deg YYZ only)

 

ORD -19, -2

 

MSN -21, -4

 

MSP -26, -7

 

LSE -25, -8

 

DBQ -24, -5

 

STL -17, +2

 

PIA -20, -3

 

LAF -18, -1

 

IND -19, -1

 

SDF -17, +5

 

GRR -15, +4

 

DTW -18, -1

 

CMH -20, -2

 

YYZ -28 (-18F) and -14 (7 F)

 

Have at it. Also, name any extreme min you want to predict. I will say -31 F some place in s/c WI, -25 F some place w/c IL and -22 F in n/c KY ... I don't know the good frost hollows to suggest locations too precisely there.

I'll go with -25C and -13C for YYZ.

 

I think Chicago has a shot at -20 and 0.

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Made a mistake and fixed it. Over done imo. 

 

The EURO over did it locally last time. It doesn't make sense that there is a stripe of mid -20s parallel to the lakefront and over more urbanized areas.

 

Probably mid -10s here on Tuesday morning. Point and click agrees.

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I agree about the pattern change potential. The PNA looks almost certain to turn neutral or negative in the next couple weeks. Come on SE Ridge (to a certain extent).

 

 

wish i could get a little giddy over the potential but I'm afraid we'll be looking on from the stands again for a while yet.  at least its better than this stat padding clipper pattern... fun but its feb soon so its go time for big storms now.  just gotta pray we can time one up right where there's enough relaxation...

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wish i could get a little giddy over the potential but I'm afraid we'll be looking on from the stands again for a while yet.  at least its better than this stat padding clipper pattern... fun but its go time for big storms now. mid to upper 20's and sun by mid feb will  start eating this fluff up.

 

 

100% agree.  It's been fun, but lets try a different flavor.

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