gosaints Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Overnight guidance really backed off the cold Tuesday. Moves off east faster and not as far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It's no problem, but when posts are biased and using the models and reasoning that benefits what you want, that will be called out as wishcasting. LOL cute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Overnight guidance really backed off the cold Tuesday. Moves off east faster and not as far south 12z NAM didn't move the cold north as much as the 06z GFS did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Ya nam colder than previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Bring back the 6z runs! lol Tonight temps are not too bad on the 12z NAM. Still very cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Siding with MOS numbers are probably the safe bet, with high pressure missing to our south and 10+ kt sfc winds I doubt we get close to -20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 6z GFS looks mild compared to previous runs... i wonder if i even hit -20F... My low last go around was -22F here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Point for Tue am bumped from -24 to -22. This may be kind of like the early Jan cold blast where the forecast backed off on the cold a bit as we got close. Was forecast to get down close to -20 with that one and only managed -17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Local schools are canceling here for tomorrow...I haven't seen any model that makes it extremely dangerous for schoolchildren to get to school. Tuesday, yes, but tomorrow, ?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Local schools are canceling here for tomorrow...I haven't seen any model that makes it extremely dangerous for schoolchildren to get to school. Tuesday, yes, but tomorrow, ?. windchill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Point for Tue am bumped from -24 to -22. This may be kind of like the early Jan cold blast where the forecast backed off on the cold a bit as we got close. Was forecast to get down close to -20 with that one and only managed -17. Point forecast bumped up Tuesday's low one degree here. Now -18°. Thinking this will be the same level of cold air blast as before, but shorter duration. Wednesday is now supposed to be 16° here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z GGEM still going all out here on Tuesday morning. I really don't have a guess at this point as to how cold we will get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z MOS numbers for Tuesday morning for LAF. Pretty ho hum. MEX: -13 MAV: -13 MET: -10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z GGEM still going all out here on Tuesday morning. I really don't have a guess at this point as to how cold we will get. It's obviously overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 It's obviously overdone. Well sure but by how much. Looking at the wind plots, it looks like it drops winds to about 5 kts here which is too strong to see those kinds of readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 this is the first winter i've experienced too cold to fart cold...clenched so tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z GFS keeps the -20s in Wisconsin on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 school canceled for my son for Monday, Tuesday, and will be assessing for Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z WRF-NNM shows a few pockets of -30 to -35 over some of the favored valley areas of northwest IL/southern WI early Tue. Shows about -22 here, which lines up perfectly with the point forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Local schools are canceling here for tomorrow...I haven't seen any model that makes it extremely dangerous for schoolchildren to get to school. Tuesday, yes, but tomorrow, ?. It's the windchills at the time the school lets out that is dangerous for Monday....and will be the same case for the morning Wednesday (as forecasted now) .... Tuesday is a no-brainer as you said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 12z MOS numbers for Tuesday morning for LAF. Pretty ho hum. MEX: -13 MAV: -13 MET: -10 Looks like the Euro 2m temps get us down around -15 or a tad colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Milwaukee has closed a bunch of schools, but not many other places so far in WI. http://www.jrn.com/tmj4/closings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Looks like the Euro 2m temps get us down around -15 or a tad colder. -10 to -15 probably a good ballpark call right now. Kinda disappointing, as I really wanted a -20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 -10 to -15 probably a good ballpark call right now. Kinda disappointing, as I really wanted a -20. I think -20 is in play if winds go calm or very close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This has been a huge pain in the butt with my kids.... No doubt school is canceled tomorrow, as long as the adjacent district is closed where my mother teaches, I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I think -20 is in play if winds go calm or very close to it. Good. We need to overachieve the next two days to mitigate this hideous torch of today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 I think -20 is in play if winds go calm or very close to it. I agree, even if they don't winds chills will still be around -30 to -40. I just want to expirence what we had earlier in the month one more time. That was the coldest, most arctic like day of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 This has been a huge pain in the butt with my kids.... No doubt school is canceled tomorrow, as long as the adjacent district is closed where my mother teaches, I'm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2014 Share Posted January 26, 2014 Good. We need to overachieve the next two days to mitigate this hideous torch of today. Taking a look back at the last time we hit -20 (January 5, 1999), 850 mb temps were in the -15 to -18 range. There were stretches of calm winds and of course we had a very deep snowpack then. Going back to the time before that (January 19, 1994), 850 mb temps were in the -21 to -24 range, which is similar to what we will have Tuesday morning. There were some periods of calm winds that night but winds mostly stayed in the 5 mph range. When we hit -19 on January 16, 2009, 850 mb temps were in the -21 to -24 range with winds mostly in the 5 mph range. Based on this, if I had a gun to my head I'd probably go with something in the -15 to -20 range for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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