Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 If the 0z GFS is right, then an awful lot of mets, and not just JB are going to be wrong. Seriously, though, it's one run. Remember the run last Thursday that had us torching on the 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 On 1/18/2014 at 5:15 AM, Ottawa Blizzard said: If the 0z GFS is right, then an awful lot of mets, and not just JB are going to be wrong. Seriously, though, it's one run. Remember the run last Thursday that had us torching on the 24th. Warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 On 1/18/2014 at 5:16 AM, daddylonglegs said: Warm? Yes, it depicts a torch from the 28th on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Wow, GFS really changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I'll take that.... have to see what Euro wants to do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 On 1/18/2014 at 5:22 AM, Geos said: Wow, GFS really changed. Pretty incredible flip from earlier runs. Alek should get ready to bust out the spring wardrobe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 On 1/18/2014 at 5:27 AM, daddylonglegs said: I'll take that.... have to see what Euro wants to do... I imagine JB is having a meltdown right about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 On 1/18/2014 at 5:29 AM, Ottawa Blizzard said: I imagine JB is having a meltdown right about now. It's not even worth having a meltdown. It's a massive flip flop. The GFS look is out of sync with the forecast -EPO/-AO regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 On 1/18/2014 at 5:29 AM, Ottawa Blizzard said: I imagine JB is having a meltdown right about now. Why? And besides 00z GFS ensembles don't support the OP whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 On 1/18/2014 at 5:38 AM, Hoosier said: It's not even worth having a meltdown. It's a massive flip flop. The GFS look is out of sync with the forecast -EPO/-AO regime. But the op GFS is always right past 180 hours. Maybe Toronto will finish above normal for January with the epic torch advertised. Winter cancel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Ensembles for the 0z run aren't even out yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 On 1/18/2014 at 5:48 AM, Geos said: Ensembles for the 0z run aren't even out yet... Yes they are. Here's the link http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 On 1/18/2014 at 5:28 AM, Ottawa Blizzard said: Pretty incredible flip from earlier runs. Alek should get ready to bust out the spring wardrobe. BowMe would probably jump right to thong and flip flops! On 1/18/2014 at 5:53 AM, toronto blizzard said: Yes they are. Here's the link http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/ Thanks. Didn't know about that source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 On 1/18/2014 at 5:53 AM, toronto blizzard said: Yes they are. Here's the link http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/ Nice site, thanks for posting it. Good look on the GEFS as the western ridge flattens in the latter periods. Should increase storminess...with cold air available. Of course, all that being said...if they're correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 On 1/18/2014 at 5:59 AM, Geos said: BowMe would probably jump right to thong and flip flops! Thanks. Didn't know about that source. Yeah NP. I use that site a lot because it updates quicker than all the other sites I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 On 1/18/2014 at 6:01 AM, Chicago WX said: Nice site, thanks for posting it. Good look on the GEFS as the western ridge flattens in the latter periods. Should increase storminess...with cold air available. Of course, all that being said...if they're correct. EC ensembles pretty much look just like that in the 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 That definitely is an odd run. I'm pretty sure it can be tossed into the garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Low replaces the high south of Alaska by the 27th on the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 On 1/18/2014 at 6:54 AM, Geos said: Low replaces the high south of Alaska by the 27th on the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Although I know it won't verify, I am hoping the GFS is right. I will pass on what the Euro is showing, would be near historic cold here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I think the American model is starting to sniff a pattern change, which probably won't actually happen until the first week of February. The GFS is just being its impatient self. Our across-the-ocean friend will probably be closer to reality for the last week of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 While colder than the 0z run, the 6z GFS is still way warmer than the Euro. I think we have a model duel on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Break out the shorts and flip flops at the end of the month/beginning of Feb on the 12z GFS. But then, it goes back to a sorta Nov/Dec pattern with cold dumping into the Northwest and Northern Plains. I'd take that reset in a heartbeat. Fits the winter pattern of ups and downs. But, fantasy land... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 On 1/18/2014 at 4:47 PM, Chicago WX said: Break out the shorts and flip flops at the end of the month/beginning of Feb on the 12z GFS. But then, it goes back to a sorta Nov/Dec pattern with cold dumping into the Northwest and Northern Plains. I'd take that reset in a heartbeat. Fits the winter pattern of ups and downs. But, fantasy land... Yeah...it is pretty shocking how the cold just disappeared on the GFS. The entire arctic outbreak at Days 7-10 vanished, after it was consistently shown for the past 3-4 days. Some may argue it's just a blip in the GFS...but now the 0z, 6z, and 12z have all showed this change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 On 1/18/2014 at 4:57 PM, beavis1729 said: Yeah...it is pretty shocking how the cold just disappeared on the GFS. The entire arctic outbreak at Days 7-10 vanished, after it was consistently shown for the past 3-4 days. Some may argue it's just a blip in the GFS...but now the 0z, 6z, and 12z have all showed this change. 8-9 days ago the GFS and GEFS had this upcoming week as a complete torch. Literally shorts and flip flops. Food for thought. But, a relaxation of some sort will be coming at the end of the month/early Feb. Shouldn't be a complete surprise. Again, this winter's colors are fairly clear to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 The GFS handled the last arctic outbreak very very poorly in the long range while the EURO and GEM rocked the pattern when it came to performance. Just food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 On 1/18/2014 at 5:22 PM, TheWeatherPimp said: The GFS handled the last arctic outbreak very very poorly in the long range while the EURO and GEM rocked the pattern when it came to performance. Just food for thought. That's a good point. It's run on Thursday 9th showed a torch for the 24th. Looks like that will bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 Here is Joe Bastardi's Saturday summary video for this week from the weatherbell free site. http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-january-18-2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 On 1/18/2014 at 5:01 PM, Chicago WX said: 8-9 days ago the GFS and GEFS had this upcoming week as a complete torch. Literally shorts and flip flops. Food for thought. But, a relaxation of some sort will be coming at the end of the month/early Feb. Shouldn't be a complete surprise. Again, this winter's colors are fairly clear to me. Yeah, end of jan and early feb warm up may have always been in the cards...but you have to admit it would be disappointing and a shocking turn of events if the jan 25-27 period loses the cold shot entirely. About 3 or 4 days in a row from many models showed a significant outbreak during this time. Not saying the past 3 warm gfs runs are gospel, but we can't just chalk this up to the gfs being its crazy self for one run. If the other guidance starts to lose the cold shot, many mets and others will go down with the ship. That's what makes this science a mystery. Not complaining - just stating what the models have been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Author Share Posted January 18, 2014 On 1/18/2014 at 6:00 PM, beavis1729 said: Yeah, end of jan and early feb warm up may have always been in the cards...but you have to admit it would be disappointing if the jan 25-27 period loses the cold shot entirely. Not saying it's gospel, but we can't just chalk this up to the gfs being its crazy self. If the other guidance starts to lose the cold shot, many mets and others will go down with the ship. That's what makes this science a mystery. Not complaining - just stating what the models have been showing. Yes. It wasn't just JB who called for this cold shot. DT did as well, along with Larry Cosgrove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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