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Late January Arctic Attack II Thread...


Marion_NC_WX

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I think the cold push may have been a few hours behind what was forecasted by many.  Maybe that explains why some Carolina locations are not as cold as forecasted this morning. Yesterday morning we were a little above where we were expected to be as front had not yet pushed thru. When it did, it hit hard. We were the the 40s until around noon yesterday then started falling hard behind strong winds. We were forecasted to be 18 this morning. Currently sitting on 17 IMBY.

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Cold and cold and cold.... Looks like this month will have no trouble ending up below normal for many in the SE.

 

RAH Long Range discussion:

.LONG TERM/FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
 

-- Changed Discussion --

AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY... ...MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER WELL INTO NEXT WEEK... PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INITIAL REINFORCING SHOT OF DRY ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERPOWERING A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY TO STALL AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO AROUND FREEZING IN THE SOUTH. A GLANCING SHORT WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE SOME DEAMPLIFICATION IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...WITH A MORE NEUTRAL WESTERLY UPPER FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FURTHER DOWN IN THE COLUMN...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE...PRODUCING SOME MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ALLOWING HIGHS SATURDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW AND MID 40S...AND TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE STRING OF ARCTIC FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONTS TIMING WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...WITH THE WEST REACHING THE LOWER 40S PRIOR TO THE COLD AIR...WHILE THE SOUTH AND EAST SHOULD REACH 50. THE AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE BRUTALLY COLD AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS...AND TUESDAYS AND WEDNESDAY HIGHS NOT REACHING FREEZING OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

-- End Changed Discussion --

 

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A lot of school systems in North Carolina from Charlotte westward have made the decision to go 2 hours late tomorrow due to temps and wind chills...

 

 

BTW on a personal level, I'm a bit disappointed in the lack of discussion on here. I know 2 weeks ago was historic but  tonight and the potential for next week could match what we have already seen. Oh well, I'm jump off the soap box.

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A lot of school systems in North Carolina from Charlotte westward have made the decision to go 2 hours late tomorrow...

 

 

BTW on a personal level, I'm a bit disappointed in the lack of discussion on here. I know 2 weeks ago was historic but  tonight and the potential for next week could match what we have already seen. Oh well, I'm jump off the soap box.

I would be talking more, but my cold was slightly delayed :(     

 

Tomorrow's expected high is just over the freezing mark at 33 after a low tonight of 18 :D    Cold enough for bubbles if I can get up early enough :)

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A lot of school systems in North Carolina from Charlotte westward have made the decision to go 2 hours late tomorrow...

 

 

BTW on a personal level, I'm a bit disappointed in the lack of discussion on here. I know 2 weeks ago was historic but  tonight and the potential for next week could match what we have already seen. Oh well, I'm jump off the soap box.

 

It's hard to compete with a theoretical, might-happen-but-not-quite-sure-yet, OMG-WHAT-IS-THAT? snowstorm.  There's pretty much only a half dozen of us who apparently enjoy cold temperatures for their sake alone, and not just as a means to get snowfall.

 

By the way, the models kinda oversold the cold for MBY, apparently.  High of 34.0 yesterday, followed by a low of 18.3 this morning, followed by a high of 36.4 today.  I think single digits are quite possible for MBY overnight, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

My mean temperature so far for January is 33.7!!  That's pretty darn cold compared to 42.1 for January 2013 and 41.5 for January 2012.

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Tonight is the final battle of the three weather providers:

Accuweather, TWC, and NWS.

TWC has won the first night with the 30. Accuweather and NWS had 27. NWS was the closest today with a forecast low of 27 this morning and actual temp 28 when TWC went with 30 again and Accuweather 26.

Tonight the forecast lows are 29(TWC), 23(Accuweather), and 25(NWS).

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It has been a very cold January here. Tomorrow will most likely be our third day in the 30s this month (the first of those days the high was at midnight, so it doesn't count), which isn't easy to do when he average high is near 60.

Living here in January is like a roller coaster.

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A very impressive long duration (which is definitely the difference from a couple of weeks ago) arctic blast. It's not often you get to experience several days of 30s and teens around here. When it does happen it much more spread out throughout the season. Our forecast low tonight from the NWS is 12°F, TWC is saying 13°F. Were under our second Wind Chill Advisory (which is also very rare) that starts in about an hour and a half and into 10am tomorrow morning. Were expected to see some sub-zero wind chills.

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A lot of school systems in North Carolina from Charlotte westward have made the decision to go 2 hours late tomorrow due to temps and wind chills...

 

 

BTW on a personal level, I'm a bit disappointed in the lack of discussion on here. I know 2 weeks ago was historic but  tonight and the potential for next week could match what we have already seen. Oh well, I'm jump off the soap box.

 

the forecast low is 9 tonight - two cold periods with singles here is rare. however, unlike the last outbreak where it was already 10* by now, its still 21 out.  while its cold i am not sure with the winds we will actually hit the single digits.  also, last time was a time when basically every time you checked the temp it had dropped lol

 

if we were getting that again here (n ga) there might be more discussion.  maybe we have been spoiled with the cold this month, 21 and windy doesnt seem as dramatic at 9* before 10

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the forecast low is 9 tonight - two cold periods with singles here is rare. however, unlike the last outbreak where it was already 10* by now, its still 21 out.  while its cold i am not sure with the winds we will actually hit the single digits.  also, last time was a time when basically every time you checked the temp it had dropped lol

 

if we were getting that again here (n ga) there might be more discussion.  maybe we have been spoiled with the cold this month, 21 and windy doesnt seem as dramatic at 9* before 10

 

 

 

One of the impressive aspects about 2 weeks ago was that temps fell almost exclusively as a result of cold air advection. 2 weeks ago when you were 9 degrees before 10 pm, that was because the 850's were of that nature. I'm looking around at the 850mb analysis on  GREarth and needless to say they're not as extreme.

 

There is a decent 850mb temp gradient along the Apps, for example, my location is currently at 22 degrees and the 850's are about -10. Just 30 miles away in Asheville, 850's are -13 and a 2M temp of 19. Meanwhile Tri Cities TN/VA is currenly 12 degrees with an 850 nearing -20.

 

 

I do think the 850's will continue to lower across the region but some other factors including radiational cooling will be in play. Any disruption of those other factors could keep temps from dropping as the models have predicted.

 

We need roughly 12 degrees to drop between now and morning for the lows to reach the values predicted on the model data.

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Has anyone notice the moisture to our west?  It has slowly been heading this way all evening.  Could there be a surprise for some people in the morning?  Just wondering.

 

Wow!   Just noticed that on radar.  A friend in S. Miss. just texted me that it was snowing heavily over there.

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I'm down to 19 with a forecasted low of 10 tonight.  It will be brisk when I walk outside tomorrow morning!  I hope we make it into the single digits since that's pretty rare around here.  We hadn't had a single digit reading since 2005 until this year.

 

Tomorrow looks outright cold as it looks like we'll top out in the mid-20s! :)

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